Ma Guangyuan'S Explanation Of The Reason For The Sharp Fall Of RMB In Recent Years

Whether the international community will trust the renminbi and choose renminbi is the key to whether China can really break the deadlock in the future, promote reform, promote innovation, bury the old economy, use the new economy to give China confidence in the future, and consolidate the confidence base of RMB with institutional changes.

Rather than relying on propaganda and precious foreign exchange reserves.

If China's economy completes the Phoenix Nirvana and returns to growth, there is no need to worry that no one will abandon the renminbi.

If the reform is repeatedly delayed, the confidence of the outside world will be destroyed. No matter how much foreign exchange reserves it has, it will not save the renminbi.

Since the beginning of 2016, the RMB has continued to decline at the end of last year. As of January 6th, the central parity of RMB has been lowered for 8 consecutive days. In January 6th, it went out of a sharp fall. The offshore renminbi broke even at the 6.70, 6.71 and 6.72 levels, the lowest intraday drop to 6.7242, nearly 800 points in the day, and the lowest offshore exchange rate since 2009.

Whether the international community will trust the renminbi and choose renminbi is the key to whether China can really break the deadlock in the future, promote reform, promote innovation, bury the old economy, use the new economy to give China confidence in the future, and consolidate the confidence base of RMB with institutional changes.

Rather than relying on propaganda and precious foreign exchange reserves.

If China's economy completes the Phoenix Nirvana and returns to growth, there is no need to worry that no one will abandon the renminbi.

If the reform is repeatedly delayed, the confidence of the outside world will be destroyed. No matter how much foreign exchange reserves it has, it will not save the renminbi.

　　對(duì)于人民幣匯率在2016年的走勢(shì)，筆者在去年年底的展望文章中對(duì)人民幣在2016年及以后的走勢(shì)進(jìn)行了仔細(xì)的分析，認(rèn)為，由于：其一，隨著2016年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正式進(jìn)入常規(guī)加息時(shí)間，美元相對(duì)于人民幣升值的趨勢(shì)仍然存在，在美元升值的預(yù)期下，資本外流的壓力仍然很大;其二， 2016年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入真正的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)周期，中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議將防范金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)列為明年五項(xiàng)重點(diǎn)工作，高層多次強(qiáng)調(diào)要堅(jiān)守住不發(fā)生系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的底線，這意味著，金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊將成不可忽視的重大因素，這將在一定程度上對(duì)人民幣的貶值形成壓力;其三，在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行趨勢(shì)仍然持續(xù)的情況下，中國(guó)的貨幣政策除了繼續(xù)寬松，穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)的壓力將使降準(zhǔn)降息會(huì)成為常態(tài)，這也會(huì)加大人民幣貶值的壓力;其四，人民幣加入SDR之后的國(guó)際化步伐將顯著加快，面對(duì)匯率市場(chǎng)化、資本項(xiàng)目可兌換和

The "Impossible Triangle" of the independence of monetary policy and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate are both realistic choices for China's economy and for the internationalization of RMB.

Based on this analysis, I believe that the depreciation of the renminbi in 2016 will not depend on the commitment of the Chinese monetary authorities. It depends entirely on a series of factors at home and abroad and the fundamentals of China's economy.

Compared with the RMB exchange rate and capital outflow, China's economic stability and recovery are far more important. If the RMB maintain high exchange rate, it will be a great threat and pressure to China's exports and China's manufacturing industry.

Therefore, in my view, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in 2016 is a probability event.

The most optimistic prediction is that the depreciation rate will be around 5%. The most pessimistic estimate is that the depreciation of the RMB should be over 10%. If the RMB depreciated more than 10% in 2016, it will mean that the RMB has returned to the "7 era".

I never worry about the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate. If the RMB exchange rate can reflect the fundamentals of China's economy, we should let the economy itself decide, instead of intervening the exchange rate for some minor policy purpose.

With the depreciation of the RMB since the "811 exchange reform" last year, since the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy has undergone a historic turn and the US dollar has returned to a strong position, it is necessary for the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar.

Since the decision of the US Federal Reserve to withdraw from the QE in 2013, the US dollar has risen sharply against the 1 major global currencies, and the US dollar index has broken through the 100 mark.

While the US dollar appreciates, the main currencies, including the euro, are depreciating relative to the renminbi, and the exchange rate of the renminbi has not risen.

With the continuous decline of China's economy and the looser monetary policy, the rise of this effective exchange rate has made China's exports difficult.

In the past 2015, China's imports and exports recorded very few dismal data for many years.

In the first 11 months, China's import and export decreased by 7.8% compared with the same period last year.

Among them, exports dropped by 2.2% and imports dropped by 14.4%.

China's poor import and export data this year is related to the global economic situation on the one hand, but on the other hand, it has a great relationship with the RMB exchange rate artificially maintained at a high level that should not be maintained.

Since the end of 2013, many scholars, including the author, have been calling on the yuan to comply with the expected depreciation of the market. The early depreciation is much more active than the late devaluation. Unfortunately, the real depreciation still dragged on in August 2015.

However, with regard to the decline of the RMB exchange rate, the monetary authorities are worried that once the trend devaluation is affecting the external confidence in the Chinese economy, they will continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market on the one hand, and on the other hand continue to convey the power of the authorities to intervene in the exchange rate, and on various occasions, "RMB will not become a trend of depreciation".

Last year, in order to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, the monetary authorities intervened strongly in August and November respectively, making China's foreign exchange reserves reduced by US $93 billion 900 million in August, the largest record of the decrease in foreign exchange reserves in the single month, while the foreign exchange reserves in November decreased by US $87 billion 200 million, setting the second largest monthly data on foreign exchange reserves reduction.

In December of last year, before the Fed raised interest rates, the renminbi experienced an unprecedented "ten consecutive fall".

In December 11th, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center issued the CFETS RMB exchange rate index, which conveyed to the outside world the signal that "the future central bank will pursue the RMB exchange rate's basically stable exchange rate for a basket of currencies to a greater extent". It is interpreted as "the divorce between the RMB and the US dollar".

On the day of the announcement, offshore renminbi fell to 6.56 against the US dollar, a four year low.

The author has been strongly appealed that on the issue of RMB exchange rate, we must not be influenced by "face". The strong RMB exchange rate is not necessarily very glorious. The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is not necessarily disgraceful.

The devaluation of the RMB exchange rate is not only conducive to China's import and export related industries, but also to China's economic recovery.

China's monetary authorities should have sufficient confidence in the depreciation of the renminbi in the face of huge foreign exchange reserves.

Exchange rate policy should be subordinated to the overall economic situation instead of being subordinated to "face". Devaluation of the RMB may lead to capital outflow, but the hot money flowing out of the depreciation of the RMB will not affect the overall situation of China's economy.

Whether China's economy is confident and whether to stay in China depends on the Chinese economy itself rather than attracting funds by a strong exchange rate.

In fact, China has huge foreign exchange reserves.

Despite the difficulties, but still the most important driving force for global economic growth, it is extremely unconfident to worry about the uncontrollable devaluation of the RMB.

Moderate depreciation is far more beneficial to China's economy than the risks to China's economy.

If China can make good use of the "exchange rate" weapon in monetary policy, the "three rate" will move to a certain extent, which may have an unexpected effect on containing the downward trend of China's economy.

In particular, it is undoubtedly a great boost to China's manufacturing industry, which is extremely difficult, and China must not abandon the powerful tool of exchange rate.

The depreciation of the RMB for China's real estate, when the RMB depreciated in August last year, has been analyzed for the first time, the earliest time, in September 2013, the Federal Reserve.

Normalization will cause a fatal blow to China's real estate. "There is also an analysis that the depreciation of the renminbi means that the value of the Renminbi denominated in real estate will shrink. International capital will also accelerate the departure of real estate in China. But considering that in 2016, we want to give the whole nation the power to save real estate. Under the stimulation of policies, the real estate of big cities will hedge against the impact of RMB depreciation on real estate. But in the medium term of 10 years, I still suggest that high net worth people learn from Li Jiacheng, sell real estate in China, sell domestic real estate, and choose relatively safe US dollar and US dollar assets to ensure the safety of wealth.