2015 Domestic Cotton Futures Price Trend: Continuation Of Weak Pattern

During the 2015 years, cotton was suppressed by the pressure from the cotton enterprises to repay the loan and the continuous increase in exchange inventories.

However, the spot price of domestic 3128B grade cotton continued to decline from the previous year's downward trend, falling below 13000 yuan / ton mark under the influence of insufficient supply and weak demand for downstream.

2015

In 2015, the domestic cotton futures price trend can be roughly divided into 2 stages.

1, early 1-5, oscillation rebound

In 2015,

By the cotton production reduction, import reduction and international cotton prices rose, the oscillation increased, but domestic cotton inventory is high, cotton purchasing before the depression is pressing, cotton price increase is limited.

After the Spring Festival festival, domestic cotton enterprises resumed slowly, cotton procurement slowed down and cotton prices oscillated downward; in April, the US cotton rose, and domestic cotton prices in the cotton planting area decreased, demand warming, orders increased and other factors, the oscillation increased; on the whole, cotton flower prices in the whole country remained oscillatory upward trend overall.

During this period, the price of Zheng cotton index rose from 13000 yuan / ton oscillation in early January to May 7th, and the Zheng cotton index closed at 13640 yuan / ton, or 4.92%.

2, -12 fell sharply in May 7th, continuing the weak pattern.

In May, domestic cotton was suppressed by the pressure of repayment of cotton enterprises and continuous increase in exchange inventories.

Entering the July, domestic cotton prices accelerated under the pressure of systemic risks in the Chinese market, as well as factors such as abundant supply of cotton, insufficient reserves and weak downstream demand.

Despite the reduction in cotton production this year,

There is a certain support; but high inventory and weak demand continue to suppress cotton prices, and cotton prices continue to decline.

During this period, the Zheng cotton futures index fell from a high level of 13640 yuan / ton in May 7th to a low level of 11395 yuan / ton in December 9th, a drop of 16.46%.

(three) review of Zheng cotton warehouse receipt changes

In the first half of 2015, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts increased, and the warehouse receipts rose from 606 in January 5th (647 effective forecasts) to 1628 in June 26th (613 effective forecasts).

As cotton year draws to a close, Zheng cotton warehouse receipt is gradually cancelled, and by November 3rd, the cotton warehouse receipt has been reduced to 3 pieces (109 effective forecasts); after that, the new cotton market came into being, and the cotton enterprises' hedging intention increased, and the Zheng cotton warehouse receipt began to increase. Up to December 25th, the Zheng cotton warehouse receipt was 363 (effective forecast 1146 sheets).

In 2015, Zheng cotton warehouse receipt increased significantly compared with the previous year. This shows that with the domestic cotton prices gradually becoming the international price, domestic and foreign cotton price linkage increases, and enterprises' willingness to hedge is significantly enhanced.

(four) domestic cotton spot (level 328) price review

In 2015, domestic 3128B cotton spot prices continued to decline in the previous year under the influence of insufficient supply and weak demand for downstream, which fell below the 13000 yuan / ton mark. However, compared with 2014, domestic cotton spot prices slowed down sharply, decreasing sharply, rapidly and sharply falling, and heading for 13500 yuan / ton.

However, the trend of international cotton prices in 2015 has been strong, and the price has already stopped, and the oscillation has rebounded, resulting in the domestic and international price spreads from positive to negative, to -1000 yuan / ton (sliding tax).

The highest price in 2015 was 14310 yuan / ton in January 5th, 13606 yuan / ton and 12685 yuan / ton (corresponding to grade 2129B, 3128B and 2227B respectively), and the lowest price was basically at the end of 2015, and ended in December 18, 2015, respectively, 13566 yuan / ton, 12916 yuan / ton and 11863 yuan / ton (corresponding to 2129B, 3128B and 2227B respectively).

Domestic cotton spot prices are gradually decreasing, and the huge gap between import and export cost (sliding tax) is gradually converging and leveling. This will also make domestic cotton spot market better and integrate with international prices.

(five) domestic cotton storage and storage

Beginning in 2014, domestic cotton was abolished.

Therefore, no storage was received in 2015.

In terms of national storage and storage, the 2015 national storage cotton rotation took place from July to August.

In July 10th, the national cotton storage and rotation business started in 2014/15. In nearly two months of auction pactions, the enthusiasm of cotton enterprises to participate in the national cotton auction is generally not high. As of August 28th, the total output of State Cotton stores totaled 1 million 801 thousand and 700 tons, and the total output from the warehouse reached 6.09 tons, of which 51 thousand and 900 tons of domestic cotton were traded, and 8 thousand and 900 tons of imported cotton were traded, with a turnover rate of 3.38%.

The low turnover rate of the national cotton and cotton auction shows to a certain extent the low level of textile consumption in the lower reaches of the cotton industry.