Wu Xiaobo'S Interpretation Of China'S Stock Market In 2016 With Fables

In 1924, an economist named Pigou gave the world the same question:

It is assumed that there are two roads from the city A to the city B, one is better, but the other is narrow, while the other road is uneven but wider.

It takes 5 minutes to walk well, and 30 minutes to take a bad road.

Without regulation, people will choose a good way to go.

So the good road will become very crowded and the time for driving will continue to increase until the time it takes to get on the right road is 30 minutes.

Pigou asked, "what should we do?

With such a slight question, he asked two new economic subjects:

And institutional economics.

It has been counted that over the past more than 20 years, more than 13 people have won the Nobel prize in economics.

In recent decades, the most famous allegory in economics is "the dilemma of prisoners".

All two prisoners were accused of being guilty.

The prosecutor told them that if they both confessed, each person would be sentenced to 10 years' imprisonment.

If two people do not confess, each person will be sentenced to 2 years' imprisonment.

If one of two people confessed, the confession will be sentenced to 1 years' imprisonment, while the other who has no confession will be sentenced to 20 years' imprisonment.

If they can reach a tacit agreement, two people claim that they are innocent, and each person is sentenced to 2 years.

But suppose they could not reach such tacit agreement.

The question is, what is the most likely decision for prisoners?

The answer of economists is that every prisoner will consider how the other party acts. If he confesses himself, he will be in a better position.

As a result, two people could confess, and each person received 10 years' imprisonment.

From the beginning of this story, a discipline called game theory is popular. So far, who is most aware of this story in Wall Street and even all the world stock company buildings, who is definitely the most valuable one.

In every field, to the top level, it is often related to talent.

I often think that an economist's intelligence and position can be reflected in his ability to tell stories.

Professor Zhang Weiying of Peking University is a good storytelling expert.

Every very difficult and difficult economic puzzle has become an interesting story in his mouth.

The stories he told most often were related to old men, fruit trees and sheep.

The reason is very simple. Professor Zhang came out from the home of shepherd boy.

Once I talked about the social insurance system.

At that time, he played a simile: for example, a watermelon man, when he was young, produced more watermelons than he ate, and when he was old, he had to eat watermelons, but he could not produce watermelons.

He could not save the watermelon for old age, so he would have children when he was young, so that his children could eat the watermelons they produced, so that they could eat the watermelon they produced after they were old.

In the age of money, if we only had watermelon in our old age, even without social insurance, we wouldn't have to "raise children to defend the old age", because he could sell the excess watermelon in his youth, save the money, and buy the watermelon when he was old.

Zhang Weiying's conclusion is clear: it is unreasonable to regard social insurance as a necessary substitute for family insurance.

An interesting fable is often a complicated one.

Sometimes, in order to solve a seemingly ordinary fable, a clever professor would have to spend his whole life and energy.

Professor Peter man, a professor at Harvard University, has described an economic fable in his "economic theory": there is a cowherd and a potato farmer, each of whom likes both beef and potatoes.

If cattle herders only produce beef and farmers only produce potatoes, then the benefits of trade are most obvious.

But what if they can both produce beef and produce potatoes?

If cattle herders are able to produce beef more than farmers, and farmers are more capable of producing potatoes than cattle herders, the benefits of trade are still easy to understand.

If cattle herders are more capable of producing beef and potatoes than farmers, then cattle herders should specialize in grazing cattle, and farmers specialize in growing potatoes.

There are only ten words that man can tell us: Division of labor and trade can benefit everyone, because it enables people to specialize in activities with comparative advantages.

However, you may not believe that this topic was raised by a British economist over 100 years ago. Over half a century, hundreds of economists quarreled with each other. Until 1990s, after the advent of computers with super computing power, the quarrel gradually subsided.

The first batch of students who saw this article may still be waiting for the January 4, 2016 stock market to get a good start.

So let me tell you a parable.

A fox fell into the well, and no matter how hard he struggled, he could not climb up, so he had to stay there.

A passing goat was thirsty and came to the edge of the well. The fox felt the opportunity to come, and he was delighted with it.

He pretended to be happy in the well, bathed in water, drank water, and praised the well water well, saying that the water was the first spring in the world, sweet and refreshing, and advised the goat to hurry down and drink with him.

A goat who just believed in drinking water, jumped off without thinking. When it plump and drank, he had to share with the fox the way to get to the well.

The fox was ready. He said, "I have a way.

You put your feet on the wall of the well and straighten the corners. I jumped up from your back and pulled you up again, and we were saved.

The goats agreed to his proposal. The fox climbed onto his back, then jumped from the sheep's horn and jumped out of the well.

When the fox went up, he fled alone and left the poor goat in the well forever.

If you want to understand the stock market in China, if you want to know the complicated relationship between the dealer, the retail dealer, the subject matter and the shell resources, you can understand the above fable.