Forecast The Trend Of Shopping Centers In China In 2016

At present, the overall trend of shopping centers in China is that they are being rapidly extended from a second tier developed city to a three or four tier city, and from a large and omnidirectional thematic and meticulous direction to younger ones.

The location has begun to shift to new urban business circles or suburban areas; service orientation also pays more attention to the theme of life matching and family entertainment.

But in the highly frothy market and the impact of the electricity supplier, the development of fatigue is fading.

According to the development characteristics of shopping centers in recent years, we judged that in 2016, the shopping centers in China showed the following trend:

First, the threshold is higher, the host and guest pposition, the site will open the end of mall history.

The first is investment difficulties.

Economic recession, more and more

Take the strategy of shrinking and do not open shop easily.

Channel changes, many brands choose to build their own channels, self built online shopping mall, direct line stores.

With the intention of opening shops, new projects are emerging one after another, and the choice is very large and becomes quite picky. It is rather difficult to ask for the opportunity to press the price down and add harsh conditions to become normal. In short, the strength of the two sides is already plocation, and the discourse power of the shopping center operators is getting weaker and weaker.

Under such circumstances, the shopping center industry mainly promises to "rent free", provide "loading and repairing", or entrust investment organizations to invite investment, but no matter what the choice is, it has increased the cost and raised the threshold.

Even if Ken is bleeding, he may not be able to fill it up.

Over the past few years, delays in opening businesses have been seen everywhere because of the difficulty of attracting investment. Although there are still lots of open spaces, there are few.

Quite a few shopping center projects have little choice. "Picking up all the dishes in the basket" has fallen into a vicious circle of homogenization.

Although it can be expected to be adjusted later, the early stage can not be a single shot, and the later adjustment will also face the dilemma of "clever women without rice".

In addition, due to the large number of shopping centers, the requirements for exterior design, interior space, landscape creation and functional configuration will be higher and higher. The "equipment race" will become more and more intense. The market will take the place of the project and take the lead for one or two years.

This will obviously increase the access threshold of shopping centers, which will bring huge pressure to the investment recovery of construction projects and the balance of post operation costs.

Two, polarization, shuffling speed, concentration and monopoly become the trend.

In the past few years, under the vigorous promotion of the real estate sector and local governments, the great leap forward of mall has continued to boom. In recent years, a large number of retailers have seen shopping centers as a magic weapon against the impact of the electricity supplier.

Although the "shopping center craze" will cool down and return to rationality in the future, but in 2016, it is still unable to stop under the effect of investment inertia. The quantity is too large, the layout is unreasonable, and the supply speed is far beyond the demand growth, which is still the biggest bottleneck restricting the healthy development of mall in China.

On the one hand, the economy is down and demand is weak. On the one hand, the number is soaring, the competition is intense and the diversion is serious.

The pressure of difficulties, operational difficulties and survival difficulties continues to enlarge. In addition, shopping centers are a huge demand for capital flow, so the average shopping centers are becoming more and more crowded.

Those shopping centers with abundant resources, professional teams, retail experience and strong strength, such as Wanda, Yintai, IKEA, Yong Wang, Joy City, etc., will have more and more obvious advantages. The brand, chain and characteristic road will become wider and wider; and those shopping centers which are small, hard and lack of professional shopping center operation experience and operation resources will be more difficult and even become the "martyrs" of the first step.

Poor property standards and obsolete mode are the congenital defects of many shopping centers in China.

According to the research data of Jones Lang LaSalle, only 83 million of the total shopping centers that have been built in China have reached 10%-15% in line with international property standards. This is in sharp contrast to the international standardization and high quality properties.

Those low-end shopping center properties are obviously not strong enough to compete with branding, capitalization and continuous shopping centers.

It is also understood that half of the shopping centers planned for construction in China will not be able to work. Half of the construction projects are difficult to start on schedule. Nearly half of the projects opened up are in deficit, and the overall success rate is less than 2.

There are only a few big tycoons with strong passenger flow and considerable profits.

The large recession has provided an opportunity for mergers and acquisitions by industry leaders. The trend of shopping centers to brand and chain is not hard to imagine. The degree of concentration is further higher, and even a certain degree of monopoly is also a matter of probability.

Some people or hope to get out of the predicament of "light mode", but we feel that the "light assets" of shopping center may be a false proposition. It is hard for you to profit from your own business and the Leasing Association will only become a "wage earner" of the owner.

At least, there are no successful rental shopping centers at this stage.

To play "mode" also needs capital, Wanda is not short of resources. "Light mode" is the way to raise public funds. This kind of Internet financial game is generally not available to enterprises.

As the economic climate index continues to slump, 2016 does not exclude the closure of shopping centers. After the first Domino dominoes fall, the chain reaction will be opened.

Once this happens, its concussion is far from that of a department store.

However, if the volume of flooding is not restrained, the collapse of shopping centres will be hard to avoid.

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Three, camp split, platform singing opera, "smart" will become shopping center standard.

Last May, Ali meow street came out. At the end of the year, Wanda flew online. In addition, Wanjiang long intelligent business district and joy city were self built "intelligent". Our shopping center took the three paths of Enterprise Independence (COFCO Joy City), strong alliance (ALI + Yintai), and settled platform (meow street, Fei + shopping center) to "smart" new era.

Meow street, flying van and so on are based on the WiFi, iBeacon technology to solve the shopping center parking, shop, queuing and other difficult problems, and provide the consumption points, personality push, interactive marketing and other functions, conform to the Internet + pformation direction, enhance the shopping center's entertainment, physical test color, the consumer welcome and business attention in the sense.

During the Christmas period in 2015, meow street and flying van and each of the hundreds of shopping centers were marketing, and the marketing mode of a cross-border co integration and "the smart platform + shopping center" emerged clearly.

Most shopping centers will face the choice of not entering the platform or entering the platform.

Although the shopping center can build intelligent platform in theory, but most of the shopping centers may choose to enter the platform if they are limited in technical strength, promotion ability and operation cost. Especially when meow street and flying people are heavily subsidized, many shopping centers can be difficult to resist the temptation to go on the pirate boat.

2016 will be meow street and flying people's "attack the land year", the parties will compete in the subsidy and play to attract merchants to enter, which is a rare opportunity for those "shopping centers" to promote and promote sales. With the shopping center's "side selection team", thousands of shopping centers in China may be divided into several camps. What kind of impact does this bureau have on the long-term development of the industry?

Four, the channels sink, resources are scarce, and the window of opportunity is narrowing.

It is understood that about 8 of the shopping centers in China are concentrated in the second tier cities. Many places have already been saturated or even seriously overloaded, and the blank points are extremely limited.

But many retail businesses have their own "shopping center strategy" and the stage can only be "downwards".

According to the world bank Richard's survey, the total global shopping center in 2014 was 39 million square meters, of which the Asia Pacific region was over 32 million square meters, and more than 60% of the total area was in China.

By 2018, new supply of 61 million 460 thousand square meters is expected to open in the market, accounting for 63% of the existing stock.

According to the population index of a shopping center, the biggest saturation of shopping centers in China is 6500, but there are 4700, and there are still a lot of regulations.

In the background of the market saturation, fierce competition and rising cost, the three or four tier cities highlight the opportunities for new development space.

The data show that China's three or four tier cities account for 53% of the national urban population, while shopping centers account for only 16.5% of the total, the number of shopping centers is relatively small, the consumption pattern is facing pformation, and the consumption experience needs to be improved.

Jones Lang LaSalle data show that the average American has 1500 square meters of retail property area for every 1000 people, while China is only 235 square meters.

This does not mean that China's shopping mall is a scarce resource. Instead, it shows that the tier one tier cities are gradually saturated, and the demand for the three or four line cities has not yet been filled up with this asymmetry phenomenon, especially the high-quality, quality management and differentiated operation experience complex projects are extremely scarce.

However, the low standard of property, poor standard, difficult investment and low return on investment have plagued the development of shopping mall in the three or four line city.

Research institutions found that the same brand, the three or four tier cities in the unit price and the effect is basically only about 60% of the second tier cities.

This shows that the saturation of the three or four line cities is low, but it is definitely not the land of investment and operation of shopping centers.

In fact, quite a number of prefecture level cities and even county towns have many shopping centers. For example, shopping centers in Wuhu, Anhui, have been flooded, the distance between them is less than 3 kilometers, and the family is not popular enough. A county town in Henan has a population of 200 thousand and a radius of several hundred meters.

Shopping center channels will not sink too much time. At present, compared with a second tier city, it is an opportunity, but it may also be a trap, and the prospects for development are also hard to predict.

This is mainly due to the limitations of consumption, consumption, brand resources and operational expertise.

Because of the low population density and low consumption power in the three or four tier cities, the shopping center may emphasize more on the whole guest layer, inclusive and large, but there is room for cross boundary. But the main role of the shopping center is probably dining, cinema, children's entertainment, etc. the possibility of "going retail" is not high. It is more difficult to avoid homogenization and go out of differentiation.

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Five, pformation is difficult, open and inclusive, department store or development direction.

The biggest problem of shopping centers in China may lie in the disorderly planning, stalling, excessive growth and excessive volume, including difficulties in attracting investment, serious homogenization, and lack of professional talents. In addition, the economic downturn, the impact of electricity providers and the pformation of consumption have resulted in the enlargement of various problems, resulting in the overall growth of the shopping center is weak, and the profit is difficult.

Under the situation of "too many people," the past "original ecosystem" business model is hard to adapt to the future competition, and the theme of positioning, business differentiation and operation refinement can be a breakthrough.

For example, the artistic style of K11, IKEA's "fast fashion", Wanda city's focus on cultural tourism, science and technology, and the interactive road show are obviously different.

But there are few such shopping centers. Most of them still have the same format, identical layout and "face impact" brand, so it is difficult to get rid of the strange circle of homogenization and wait for pformation and adjustment.

Innovation in architectural design, creation of landscape creation and creation of service experience are the direction of differentiation. However, these are not the most important things. Differentiated design is not a weird one. The key is to have a few main features, the core competitiveness of the main store, there are several categories that can gather passengers to drain, formats, and few detonating passenger flow, so it is difficult to form characteristics and competitiveness.

But why do retailers develop and operate shopping centers generally better than developers? Because the former shopping centers are more integrated into the department store operation mode, first of all, they have their own main stores, such as Yong Wang Meng Le's comprehensive department store, IKEA's IKEA home, Wanda Plaza's cinema, hotels, baby Wang, etc. these resources are unique. Secondly, they are more integrated into the department store's business practices and implement overall planning and overall operation in marketing and promotion, that is to say, these successful shopping centers show a high degree of department store.

In the past, the sense of shopping center as real estate management is isolated and one-sided judgment, which is completely separated from retail and commodity management.

Although the positioning and development of the shopping center at present should have the demand and ability to guide consumption and trend oriented, but based on consumption habits and popular demand, it is still necessary to start from the consumption intention and scientifically layout the formats and categories.

If the shopping center is fully engaged in property management or entertainment, consumers' sense of experience and functional consumption may be very low, that is to say, simply going to department stores or even going retail is also hard to establish, especially for shopping centers in the three or four line cities.

Our shopping centers are not like foreign shopping centers directly recruited into brand names, mainly by brand agents, especially to the three or four tier cities, which are the same as department stores.

Overseas shopping centers are mostly managed by means of assets management, while China's shopping centers attract investment and operation, showing a high degree of "department store".

The problem that the efficiency of shopping center is far below that of department stores is that some shopping centers adopt a single original leasing mode between asset management mode and department store mode.

The essence of shopping center is to operate passenger flow, which is a typical representative of "festival economy". "Every festival is bound to be a fire" is one of its main characteristics. Therefore, fun and fun is the king's way. This puts forward very high requirements for operators' resources integration ability, activity planning and organizing ability, publicity ability and service ability. If you are just a property management, you only know the rent of your business, but do not know its sales, or the scattered management mode. Obviously, you can't play the "holiday economy".

Under fierce competition, shopping centers have long been a small profit industry. Expanding sales and increasing revenues, fine management and cost saving are also key factors for profitability. Changing the single profit model or even adapting to self employment is the way to improve the return value of shopping centers.

But all these require shopping centers to have strong control over formats, brands and businesses, and can effectively integrate various resources. This is also the main form and operation means of department stores.

It is a major task for China's shopping centers to learn from and learn from other retail forms, reconstruct models from the dimensions of investment, cooperation and operation, change the extensive and original management of "property company", and implement meticulous, precise and specialized operation management.