Xinjiang Cotton Prices Have Not Been Very Weak.

Some local ginning plants reflect that as late as December, the seed cotton purchase in Akesu and Kashi has ended. Only a few cotton processing enterprises still have 00 scattered acquisitions due to the processing of workshops, but the sale of cotton growers and cotton brokers has been very few. It is estimated that more than 90% cotton enterprises will be processed in the southern Xinjiang at the end of December, and more than 90% of them will be supervised in the territory.

According to statistics, as of December 23rd, 3 million 150 thousand tons of lint and 3 million 73 thousand and 600 tons of public inspection were put up in Xinjiang. The average daily processing volume dropped to 11 thousand and 200 tons in the past week, a decrease of 63% compared with the same period last year.

A cotton trader in Changzhou, Jiangsu, said that the price of "double 28" hand picked cotton in the southern, Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Henan markets was 13000-13100 yuan / ton, and the "double 29" was slightly higher than 50-100 yuan / ton.

The situation of "low turnover" was reduced, and the price of hand picking cotton was lower than that of local enterprises.

On the one hand

Planned for late January before the holiday, the current main energy in gauze "go to stock, receive money", raw materials to buy and buy as the main, mainly from the inland bank batch, two batch of pick-up; on the other hand, domestic cotton yarn prices fell again, part of the spinning enterprises in the high count yarn decreased 300-500 yuan / ton, spinning production and marketing pressure increased sharply.

Territory part

It is reflected that since December 20th, the quotation of Xinjiang cotton in the inner and inland warehouses is still weak and cloudy. Although the price of the cotton Corps has not been adjusted, some large and medium-sized processing enterprises are quite willing to have a strong desire for cost, a sharp reduction in production of Xinjiang cotton and a tight supply of high-quality cotton in 2015/16. But in the one-sided "buyer's market", the right to speak is in the hands of cotton mills and cotton operators.

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The cost of planting supports the cotton market at the bottom. However, the threat of national storage and inventory and the lack of demand braking force still make the cotton price uplink still ineffective. Now it is a dilemma. With the sluggish state of paction and position, it is still difficult for the market to have a trend in a certain stage.

1, in 2015/16, cotton production in main producing countries (11425, 35, 0.31%) continued to decline, and supply continued to decline, while demand continued to warm up, and output began to be smaller than demand.

But in terms of the historical rule of cotton market, the cotton price is still weak in the early stage of going to inventory.

However, after entering the new year of 2016/17, it will usher in a good momentum in the evolution of shrinking inertia and the gradual recovery of demand. However, China's high storage is still a potential threat to the cotton market. The pace of recovery is still constrained, and the bottom shock will be better.

2, the difference in stock rhythm between the main producing countries affects the pace of bottoming.

In addition to China, other countries began their inventory trip in the 2012 year of the year. The supply and demand stage of other main producing countries is also a relative balance between supply and demand of two.

China's national storage stocks are huge, and the pressure from the international cotton market is imported through the import. The internal and external cotton performance is still in a certain stage. In this situation, the docking between domestic and foreign cotton prices is completed. After that, the national cotton began to go to stock quickly, and then the brake increased.

3, from the domestic situation, the annual supply and demand is tight, and the potential pressure of the national reserve is great. If the annual supply and demand is tight, the opportunity to rise at the stage will eventually be cut off. In the 2015 year, the quality of cotton will still have problems, and the quantity of good flowers will be small. This will stimulate the market to go up in stages, but the difference between the rising of different grades of products and the high level of poor stocks and stocks will lead to a slight increase in the current price difference, and the futures delivery intention will be strong, which will further restrict the futures market.

4, from the perspective of capital, the liquidity of the internal market is insufficient, and the external market is warming up.

From the point of view of pactions and positions, most of the year's holdings were held at around 40-50 hands, and turnover was at 10-30, 000, 000.

After entering the 2015 year, there was a lot of non commercial positions in the US cotton market, and at the end of the year there was a trend of rising. Cotton sentiment could gradually be pmitted from the outside to the inside, and it could be expected to step up, but the amplitude may still be constrained by the fundamentals.

Today's cotton and cotton textile industry, such as the Jen long chess game, can be reborn after the suicide. It is not broken in the market. It may still be under the pressure of imports and national reserves in the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year, there is the opportunity of Pan Nirvana under the leadership of tight supply and demand in the second half of the year.