Ye Tan Said Financial Innovation Itself Is Not Poison.

Near the end of the year, the market began to heat up the worries of P2P.

It is very difficult to find out a rational logic from the stock market's over-the-counter allocation to the prosperity of some local exchanges, and then to P2P.

Almost all leveraged finance and high risk finance are now under the name of innovation.

But when a large number of financial institutions are being questioned, people simply think that "there are no good people in Hongdong county". Ignoring a small number of financial institutions, they are committed to risk management at the beginning of their establishment. Some agencies are struggling to carry out relatively independent and fair ratings.

Regulation and innovation are the criteria of China's economy, which is not related to the number of P2P platforms.

Before the outbreak of risk, there are usually precursors and risk control measures, but leverage, grey space and inefficient supervision will lead to fatal injuries.

Innovation finance is not poison in itself, but

Coupled with high leverage, it must be poison.

In the first half of this year, the overheating of the OTC and the heat of exchanges in some places were basically the same. They were accustomed to high-yield and large amount of funds outside the field, and suddenly met the shortage of asset allocation.

Plus China's credit environment is not clear.

Lagging behind, even if the risk does not erupt from the stock market, it will break out from the private financial market.

The pformation of the real economy is bound to be accompanied by the pformation of investment patterns.

In the past, when the real economy was in full bloom, investment could be absorbed on the real economy, and it would be easy to get more than two digit returns.

What's more, the real economy is also accompanied by the issuance of monetary quantities. Once the assets are sold, the cash flow can be recovered.

As long as most industries and enterprises are in good working condition, joint guarantee loan and regional credit guarantee based on acquaintance relationship are feasible risk prevention plans.

But now

Facing downward pressure, entering the overcapacity stage, superposing the demand for currency stability, and the trend of capital outflow to overseas, this means that the price of capital products is in a declining stage.

The above phenomenon has led to an increase in the risk of investment in the real economy. Whether it is industry exchanges or financial products, joint insurance lending has also become a risk spreading way.

The rising risk of investment is actually a reflection of the rising risk of real economy.

As of November 30, 2015, only 3464 of the 3464 P2P lending platforms monitored were operating normally, accounting for about 46% of the problem platforms, reaching a new high in the past six months.

According to the statistics of net loan home, as at the end of November, the number of investment involved in the question platform in 2015 was about 157 thousand, and the loan balance was 8 billion 270 million yuan.

The amount involved is getting bigger and bigger, and the nature is getting worse and worse. There are even platforms that run online in less than a month.

In December 22nd, the big group has confirmed that it has been placed on file for investigation on suspicion of illegal fund-raising. There are only 100 million yuan left on the account of the group account, and it may take about 4 billion yuan to complete the payment.

A big case is enough to stigmatise an industry, and it is also a strong challenge to regulation.

Like junk bonds, when the risk rises, corporate lending rates rise to cover possible risks such as closures. This is a normal market, and it is important for risk control and regulation.

But the simultaneous emergence of high risk products is a gambling plus leverage behavior characterized by the biggest financial return. Some institutions treat financial risk as a Ponzi scheme, and when they are exposed, they go away.

For some private asset management products, when the leverage ratio is the most crazy, the allocation of priority funds and inferior funds can be 1 to 5, but the stock is at most 1: 2, most of which are 1: 1 or 1: 1.5.

There is part of the voice in the market. When faced with supervision, it is a financial innovation. It can be criticized once the risk occurs, and there is a big problem with this swarm of linear thinking.