Ren Zeping: The Two Level Market Will Be Divided.

In yesterday's "2015 Zhejiang business group financial investment annual meeting", Ren Zeping, the chief macroeconomic analyst of Guotai Junan, who has not appeared in public for a long time, issued a judgement on the market in the future. He believed that the first stage equity market in China will usher in the golden age of planting.

There will be structural markets, with major investment opportunities coming from reform and the pformation of new and old industries.

Standing in 10 years' time, we will see how China's real estate market will go. The core depends on the migration of population. Where people go, the demand for housing will rise, and where people will leave, prices will fall, because there is no demand.

According to Ren Zeping's observation, young people will move further to big cities in the future, and the population of small cities will gradually drain away.

Ren Zeping believes that next year the global market will have four main risks: first, the risk of outflow of funds.

Second, the vulnerability of emerging economies and the risk of vulnerable chains.

Third, the risk that traditional industries will not get through next year.

Fourth, the risk of generalized policy uncertainty.

It is worth mentioning that after the "chief dispute", Ren Zeping only appeared several times in the capacity of chief macroeconomic analyst of Guotai Junan.

Specifically, there are the following aspects. If we continue to stock the game, we will continue to be a structural market next year. If next year's business profits, but can not see systemic improvement, and can not see the economic recovery, then the space for interest rate decline next year is limited, so it is also limited to expect to raise the center of the entire valuation through interest rates.

Therefore, from the valuation model, the core is risk preference.

For now, next year is

The dominant investment is mainly from traditional industries to innovative industries.

Next year is the golden age of structured portfolio investment. Investment opportunities come from two points: first, from the landing and experimenting of various reforms.

Second, the rising and emerging industries and the pformation of traditional industries from bottom to top.

As for the bond market, next year

The rate of return is not as good as that in 2015 2014. From the space angle of the whole interest rate decline, 2014 and 2015 are going down rapidly. If the economy is L type next year, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 2 or 4 times. There will be some room for the decline in interest rates next year, but it may not be so big. Many industries and enterprises have no future. When the ammunition is released, it will be exposed.

For the recent hot first class equity market, Ren Zeping gave the expectation that it would be an unprecedented investment opportunity.

He said: "the era has provided us with such a good opportunity. We should bravely stand on the tide. Let alone Hangzhou, Zhejiang, which is one of the most developed areas of China's private economy, and it will be the hope of China's pformation."

On the controversial housing price, Ren Zeping still maintained his judgement last year.

In the coming period, the total volume will slow down, the structure will be divided, and the real estate investment will be zero growth in the future.

Real estate investment declined from 20% at the beginning of last year to the present cumulative growth rate of only 1%. In October, the real estate industry experienced a negative growth.