Ten Days Before 2016, It Is Time To Know The Economic Layout Of The Coming Year Ahead Of Time.

The four day central economic work conference laid down a broad aspect for the economic policy of 2016. The meeting pointed out that next year's active fiscal policy should be strengthened and prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate. Analysts believe that this means that the government will take further action to implement a more relaxed fiscal and monetary policy.

The official original:

The positive fiscal policy should be intensified, the tax reduction policy should be implemented, and the fiscal deficit rate should be increased at a phased stage. At the same time, the necessary financial expenditure and government investment should be appropriately increased, and at the same time, it should be used to make up for the reduction of taxes. Fiscal reduction To ensure that the government should bear the responsibility of expenditure.

Steady monetary policy We should be flexible and moderate, create an appropriate monetary and financial environment for structural reform, reduce the cost of financing, maintain a reasonable and adequate liquidity and increase the total amount of social financing, expand the proportion of direct financing, optimize the credit structure, and improve the exchange rate formation mechanism.

"Although the overall cyclical policy stance is set to be" robust ", the tone of fiscal policy, monetary policy and other policies is slightly pigeon oriented. Goldman Sachs economist Song Yu team wrote in the latest report.

"The more active the policy base is, the more reason we believe in 2016. China's economy It will only slow down gently. " The financial times also quoted a policy official familiar with planning affairs, saying the government would adopt a more liberal fiscal and monetary policy while reducing surplus capacity, reducing costs for businesses and selling backlog of real estate and industrial products.

"There will be a fiscal policy to expand government spending and increase the government's fiscal deficit," the official said. "The economy will remain" L "and it will not be a V trend. In the third quarter of this year, China's economic growth dropped to its lowest level since the financial crisis, the first time it has fallen below 7 in the past six years. This year's GDP target is around 7%. From the perspective of GDP, the average annual growth of the economy from 2016 to 2020 is above 6.5%.

In terms of fiscal policy, Chen Long, a Chinese economist at Longzhou economic news, told the newspaper that "the central government will have a bigger budget deficit and allow local governments to issue more bonds. At the same time, local government financing tools will be allowed to borrow at full capacity." In terms of monetary policy, "foreign trade and manufacturing sector continue to be weak, we believe monetary policy will continue to be loose," said Koon How Heng, a Credit Suisse foreign exchange strategy analyst. It is expected that the central bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points and reduce 200 basis points by the end of next year.