Liu Xiaobo'S Interpretation Of The Stock Market'S Dead Hole

Although the central bank intervened the RMB exchange rate the day before, the stock market remained under heavy pressure until 3000 at 10:40 a.m.

In my recent column, I have repeatedly pointed out that the stock market and the foreign exchange market both fell sharply because of the high valuations of the Shanghai and Shanghai stock markets and the high valuation of the RMB exchange rate.

These two problems are not fundamentally solved. Only by intervening in the market, we can only solve temporary problems and solve fundamental problems.

As for solving problems through substitution, it is also very childish.

Substitution can only soothe investors in psychology, that's all.

Those who have been replaced will eventually be disgraced.

In every round of the stock market crash, there is always the most important reason, besides the high valuation and the big expansion.

This round of collapse is the two main inducement, one is the fusing mechanism, and the two is the reduction of large shareholders.

The fusing mechanism has been discarded and can not be discussed.

The problem now is the reduction of large shareholders.

As I said, in the early days of registration, the biggest market pressure was not the new shares, but the companies that had already been listed.

First, large shareholders will run, and the two is their refinancing.

After last year's July stock market crash, management launched a six month period.

"Dong supervisor Gao" half a period of sale.

This deadline expires in January 8th.

As I wrote in November, I need to give a statement at least 1 months in advance.

Helpless, the parties concerned remained silent.

After the first fusing in January 4th, we made haste to make a statement.

After the second blow up in January 7th, a number of regulations on "large shareholding of listed companies and high shareholdings of directors of listed companies" were issued.

The eighth major shareholders of listed companies plan to reduce their shares through centralized trading in the stock exchange, and they should disclose the reduction plan ahead of the 15 sale days before the first sale.

The contents of the reduction plan for large shareholders of listed companies should include, but not be limited to, the quantity, source, reduction time, method, price range and reasons of reduction.

The total number of shares reduced by the ninth major shareholders of a listed company in a three month period shall not exceed one percent of the total shares of the company.

Article tenth: the reduction of shares by way of agreement pfer and the fact that the pferor is no longer a major shareholder of a listed company, the pferor and the pferee shall continue to abide by the eighth and ninth provisions of the present Provisions within 6 months after the reduction.

I immediately pointed out that the loopholes were too large to solve the problem.

Large shareholders can quickly reduce their holdings through block trading and agreement pfer.

Sell, sell, sell.

Then, in January 9th, a new "patch" was introduced, with the following two main contents:

If a large shareholder of a listed company reduces shares by way of agreement pfer, the ratio of the pferee of a single pferee shall not be less than 5%, and the lower limit of the pfer price range shall be carried out in accordance with the provisions of the bulk paction, unless otherwise stipulated by the laws, regulations, departmental rules and business rules of this business.

Therefore, running is inevitable.

The end result is that many shareholders sell shares in a large discount through bulk trading and agreement pfer.

On the two level market, 20 yuan and one share, I ran away for 10 yuan.

Although these shares are temporarily unable to reach the two tier market of collective bidding, they still need.

Connect the disk.

A large number of large funds in the two tier market will be picked up in the newly formed "legal person share market" and then wait for the opportunity to earn the difference.

The pferor and the pferee of the listed company's large shareholders who have reduced their shares through the agreement pfer mode and after the reduction of the shareholding ratio is less than 5%, shall continue to abide by the provisions of the eighth and ninth provisions of the reduction rules within 6 months after the reduction, and the pferor and the pferee after the reduction of shareholding ratio reaches or exceeds 5% shall comply with the requirements of the reduction provisions after the reduction.

It should be said that this regulation is very strict.

A large shareholder, if he holds 20%, if it is reduced by two market, it will take 60 months to complete.

If through the block trading, the agreement pfer, looks for the bridge company, according to the "patch method", the most can only find 4 companies, each family must buy at least 5%.

Then, the 5% will either be sold as a whole, or sold to the two tier market in accordance with the sale of 1% per 3 months.

But the total amount granted by the SFC is that it can only sell 1% every 3 months.

At that time, these 4 "bridge shareholders" can not run at the same time, they can only take turns to run.

Does it look like a leak?

But the problem is that the shareholding of major shareholders and Dong Jiangao has once again become "quasi non tradable shares".

That's the first of the three big forecasts I've given before: the Chinese stock market has been split again!

That is to say, our stock market is back to 2007.