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    Yang Delong: In 2016, We Must Carry Forward With Hope.

    2016/1/18 16:17:00 29

    Yang DelongMacro EconomyMarket Quotation

    China's 2015 conference and the thirteenth round of financial crisis table discussions show that there is no need to be so pessimistic about 2016. We think that the market environment is not much changed compared with the beginning of 2015. There are still not many investment opportunities in the industry. Especially, some traditional industries are facing the capacity to go out, and the funds coming out of traditional industries are looking for exports. Under the background of interest rate downturns, we are facing the shortage of assets, and the yields of bonds are falling, and the products of financial management are decreasing.

    Rate of return

    In the fall, the yields of fixed income products of monetary fund are decreasing. Our liquidity is quite abundant now, and these funds are also looking for exports.

    In 2016, it did not look like a sharp rise in 2015. In 2015, adding leverage to the second half of the year also made many investors unprepared. In the first half of 2015, there was not a lot of money in the first half of the year. In fact, there was not much money in the second half of the year. In 2016, I think there would be no such a situation, because it was very strict in the supervision of OTC assets. It is impossible to add more leverage on the lever as in 2015. Now that leverage can only be increased through the two financing in the field, the leverage ratio will be greatly reduced, which determines that the volatility of the market is definitely smaller than that.

    Entering the stock market, they will make a choice. They will not go up as big as in 2015, and small stocks will go up. These funds and industrial capital, including venture capital, and some speculative funds, will choose some high-quality equity investments. These venture capitals will raise their cards. Some excellent white horse stocks can see that they are very fond of these shares. Many traditional companies have more than 3% dividend yield of white horse stocks, plus a certain growth, and future stock price gains, which is a good investment outlet for them.

    Therefore, I do not think that this trend will change because of the regulations of the CIRC on the sources of funds of insurance companies.

    2016 risk insurance cards still enter.

    Blue-chip share

    It is quite certain that this blue chip stock does not mean that all traditional industries are blue chips, but that the profit growth is relatively stable, to a certain extent, to resist cyclical defensive blue chips.

    For example, some high quality real estate companies, such as liquor, food and beverage, medicine, household appliances and some excellent brokers, these companies can gain a certain profit growth when the economic growth is relatively low. These companies are also stable companies with traditional earnings growth. I think there is still a chance to return in 2016.

    Some growth stocks may be in line with the direction of industrial pformation, and there is a definite growth, and its performance may be visible in the next one or two years, these growth stocks also rose in 2016.

    Of course, there will be a big drop in some stocks of fried topics and storytelling in 2016.

    Therefore, the difficulty of investment is indeed increasing. In 2016, it is also a year full of opportunities. We should not lose confidence in the whole year because of the fall in the first week. If we first suppress it, we may receive a positive line. Confidence should still exist. In 2016, we can still actively seek investment opportunities.

    In the first week of this year, there were two big drops in the market, which also cast a shadow on the 2016 market and many investors' confidence was hit hard.

    Speaking from the speeches of the previous guests, it was generally prudent in 2016 that they would worry about whether they would fall into a bear road in 2016 after experiencing mad cows in 2015.

    It is not necessary to be so pessimistic about 2016. Let us think that the market environment has not changed much compared with the beginning of 2015. There are still not many investment opportunities, especially in the traditional industries.

    Traditional industries

    The funds coming out should be exported. Under the background of interest rate downfall, we are facing the shortage of assets. The yield of bonds is decreasing, the yield of financial products is decreasing, and the yields of fixed income products of monetary fund are decreasing. Our liquidity is quite abundant now, and these funds are also looking for exports.

    In the first half of this year, there was a bubble in the stock market. The stock market went down in the second half of the year.

    Two or three tier cities because of the inventory of the property market is particularly high, so the real estate has dropped, but the first tier cities, especially Shenzhen, these stocks are relatively large, large capital cities in the second half of the year, the property market has gone through a big bull market, Shenzhen property prices in the second half of 2015 rose by 50%-100%, capital is always looking for exports, the market can not be pferred to another market.

    For Chinese people, there are two markets that can really invest. The big channel is a stock market and a real estate market. The funds went to seventy thousand or eighty thousand in the second half of 2015 in the Shenzhen Central District of the property market, and the possibility of further bubble is relatively small. At least in 2016, Shenzhen's housing price remained at this level.

    Where will these funds go? I think they can only enter the stock market.


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