Both Sides Are Constantly Changing.

At the beginning of the 16 year, the market began with a terrorist plunge, and investor sentiment became particularly pessimistic under the short slump.

How do we see the market in the market at the moment? Is there any opportunity for the market after the crashing, or will we fall all the way down? Our view is that the short term need not be too pessimistic, and there will be a rebound after crashing down the pit, and the market is still worth cherishing.

From the perspective of the law of market operation, there are more ups and downs, more ups and downs, and both sides are constantly changing.

Although the early fall has been catalyzed by three bad factors, the situation is changing.

Reduce the new rules and fuse to suspend and stabilize market confidence.

In the beginning of the year, a big incentive for the market to fall was the concern about the lifting of the ban on major shareholders. However, in January 7th, the SFC first issued a number of regulations on the large shareholders and directors' holdings of shares of listed companies. It clearly stated that the total number of large shareholders (holding more than 5% of shareholders) in the three month period through the stock exchange's centralized bidding paction should not exceed 1% of the total shares of the company.

Then, in January 9th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice on the implementation of the relevant provisions of the "large number of shareholders of listed companies and the regulations on the reduction of shares held by the directors", which made up for the loopholes in the reduction of large pactions. In January 13th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange made a deep voice at night, indicating that they would strictly control the reduction of major shareholders and take special measures to increase supervision.

And since the beginning of this year, two major shareholders of more than 100 listed companies have made commitments to reduce their holdings and further stabilize their expectations.

Moreover, the suspension of the fusing system in January 8th will also help the market return to normal trading.

The crocodile rule is acceptable throughout the year.

After the short term crash, we expect to start squatting, and we still need to pay attention to the March Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and the risk of domestic capacity deleveraging.

The Fed's entry into the interest rate cycle can easily lead to emerging market risks. In the past 97 years, the risks of emerging markets such as Thailand, 98 years Russia and 02 years Argentina have triggered global capital market turbulence. From the external debt / foreign exchange reserves and the /GDP ratio of foreign debt, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Australia, Canada and other countries have heavy external debt burden.

After the two sessions, the speed of domestic deleveraging to speed up production capacity is accelerating, resulting in the risk of bankruptcy and default will affect the market.

On the whole, the market pressure in the first half of the year is greater, the overseas crisis and domestic capacity to go out, the digestion and valuation, more opportunities in the second half of the year, the process of deleveraging, the decline in interest rates and the continuation of the pformation.

Looking forward to the whole year, the era of equity investment with interest rate downward has not changed.

The market is more moderate and mild throughout the year.

In operation, 15 years were like a wolf eating food everywhere, and 16 years like an alligator waiting for an opportunity.

The stage of RMB exchange rate stabilizes and alleviating panic.

The sudden devaluation at the beginning of the year caused panic in the market. However, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized at this stage, which will help to ease the market.

People are pessimistic.

From a medium-term point of view, exchange rate and stock market are dependent variables, which actively depreciate or passively depreciate, and the stock market performs differently.

When money is loose and economic growth is stable, the depreciation of the exchange rate can be called an active depreciation. At that time, the stock market rose, such as the United States from the end of 08 to 14 October, Japan from the end of 12 to the 15 year of July.

In the economic downturn and fundamental deterioration, the depreciation of the exchange rate can be called passive depreciation. At that time, the stock market fell, such as the impact of the Russian currency depreciation on the stock market in July 14.

Back in China, the depreciation of the RMB was officially opened in early 14, the background of currency depreciation was easing, and the downward pressure on economic growth was hedged, so the stock market was rising during the depreciation of the exchange rate.

In the future, whether the depreciation of the RMB will evolve into passive depreciation depends on the growth of China's economy and the comparison with the US economic growth.

In addition, the devaluation is different from the 811 exchange rate reform, other emerging market countries.

There is no need to follow the devaluation, so there is no need to worry about global financial risks in the short term.

Bond yields downward, positive signals appear.

Looking back at the historical stages of the market, it is the first manifestation of the bond market, and then the pmission to the stock market, typically the bottom of the bull market after the 11 year bear market crash and the 14 year bull market.

In August 27th of 15, "the stock market is worth your time to approach". The forward-looking judgment is that the market is near the bottom. One of the core logic is the stock market allocation opportunities arising from the double down interest rate.

At this stage, although the stock market is not happy, the bond market is experiencing a positive change. In the past 16 years, the yield of the 10 year treasury bond has fallen from 2.9% to 2.75%.

Further comparing the current main asset yield level, the 1 year bank financial return rate is 4.49%, the AA class corporate bond yield is 3.64%, the balance treasure annualized yield 2.69%, and in 2014 dividend calculation, at present SAIC, GREE, Daqin Railway and other dividend rate once again returned to 5%, the large class asset's price effect once again tilted to the stock market.