RMB As A Risky Asset Is Under Pressure.

The Central Bank of China announced in August 11, 2015 that it would improve the quotations between the RMB and the US dollar in order to enhance its marketization and benchmarking. Since then, the market maker will quote the closing rate of the interbank foreign exchange market in the daily interbank exchange market before considering the foreign exchange supply and demand as well as the exchange rate changes of the international major currencies, and offer the middle price quotation to the China foreign exchange trading center, with a one-time depreciation of nearly 2%.

Under the guidance of the continued rise in the middle price, the renminbi rose sharply against the US dollar on Monday (January 11th). Offshore also fluctuated. Traders said that due to the recent direction of the middle price, plus the dollar index pullback, the short-term renminbi will remain stable, but the long-term depreciation pressure remains unchanged.

They also pointed out that at present, global financial sentiment is pessimistic and high risk aversion, and the renminbi as a risky asset is under pressure. Although regulators have been maintaining stability in recent days, it is hard to break the expectation of market consistent depreciation.

"These two days look at the direction of the middle price. depreciation It's possible to pause. All of us were buying (US dollars) a while ago. Now it's almost time to close. In the long run, the pressure of depreciation is relatively large. Now it is prudent to look up a little, but always ready to quit. " A stock trader said.

He also said that due to the high cost of offshore renminbi, offshore profit margins have been raised, raising the CNH exchange rate.

Last week, the yuan depreciated more than 1.5% last week, last Friday. Middle price After the first increase in the nine trading day, the renminbi was able to rebound slightly.

Another stock trader said that regulators wanted to break the unilateral depreciation expectations, or let the RMB depreciate sharply and then pull up. By raising volatility, the speculation market was destroyed and the market was cleaner. Or China's data is improving and the expectation of depreciation is likely to change. At present, the two are hard to achieve.

"Before saying that the RMB did not have a significant depreciation base, but where the reasonable interval is, we all feel uncertain, and the customers are more panic. Its market direction is single, if the central Mama does not intervene, it will go to the direction of depreciation. He said, "now we can not see where the central bank wants to be controlled. It can only be said that it is stable. But it's dangerous to go on like this. It can be more difficult to keep at this price. "

RMB rose in early trading. Regulators Intends to guide the elimination of unilateral devaluation expectations

Guan Tao, senior researcher of China's financial forty person forum, said China's basic balance of payments is still strong, and market panic and concentrated runs are due to the expectation of consistent depreciation. The market needs to eliminate the panic caused by unilateral expectations and take the initiative to adapt to the new normal of the two-way fluctuation of RMB.

China's foreign exchange trading center (CFETS) announced on Monday that the RMB exchange rate index was 99.96 last Friday, down nearly 0.97% from the previous week, and also depreciated by 0.04% compared with the end of 2014. This is the first time the data has fallen below the 100 threshold since its publication.

China's State Administration of foreign exchange said last Saturday that it will strengthen risk prevention and control this year, and guide banks to conduct foreign exchange business in accordance with the "three principles of exhibition industry" (understanding customers, understanding business and due diligence), strictly implementing the authenticity and legality of audit responsibilities, cracking down on foreign exchange violations and maintaining normal foreign exchange market order.

At 12:04 Beijing time, the renminbi was 6.5832 yuan against the US dollar and 6.5888 yuan on the previous day. Today, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar is 6.5626 yuan, and the middle price of the day is 6.5636 yuan. The spot turnover of RMB against the US dollar was US $14 billion 506 million, which was $13 billion 756 million for the first half of the day.

In the global market, the yen of the safe haven market soared in Asia early Monday, while Rand in South Africa slipped, highlighting the risk aversion of the market since the start of the year because China allowed the yuan to depreciate sharply.

Overseas non deliverable Forex foreign exchange (NDF) market, the US dollar to RMB one year varieties latest report at 6.9550 yuan, the last day was 6.9440 yuan. The latest offshore renminbi to us dollar in Hongkong was 6.673/6.6738 yuan, and the last day was 6.6851 yuan.

The exchange rate of China's foreign exchange trading center today is 11 RMB against the US dollar, and the reference rate is 6.5827. Since January 4th, the foreign exchange trading centre has published 11 reference prices every day, issuing a reference rate at 10 a.m., 11 p.m., 2 p.m. to 11 p.m. per hour.