2016: Industry Pformation Is Imminent

The supply side reform was put forward under the economic background of "supply can not keep up with demand".

In the past, the quantity of products supplied could not keep up with the demand of consumption. Now, the surplus and insufficiency of products, services and their productive factors coexist simultaneously.

Although the society has entered a new era of big data, Internet, mobile and full channel development, demand signals are distorted, effective demand is suppressed, and supply has multiple obstacles to market reaction.

Therefore, there has been no major breakthrough in pformation.

At the beginning of 2016, a wave of shops closed down.

WAL-MART (Walmart) announced that it will close 269 stores worldwide, with 16 thousand employees expected to be affected.

In the closing of the shop, WAL-MART in the US is the most affected, 154 shops will be closed and 10 thousand employees will be affected.

Of the 154 shops, 102 were WAL-MART's Walmart Express, which began testing water in 2011.

After shutting down 14 stores in 2015, Messi store, the largest chain department store in the United States, announced that the company will lay off about 4800 people and close 40 stores in various states including New York and California.

Messi's chief executive officer, Terry Lundgren, made a typical statement. "The weather in the United States has been a drag on the sales of winter clothing, while the strong US dollar has also affected passenger consumption. Last November to December, the same store sales fell 4.7%, and the performance fell more than expected."

In particular, the strength of the US dollar has reduced the consumption desire of foreign tourists.

Christmas new year sales season has always been an important moment for department stores to rush. However, under the strong dollar, foreign tourists have been greatly reduced.

Perkins, President of Retail Metrics Inc., a retail market research firm, believes that the layoffs in Messi's department store reflect an irresistible trend in the whole industry. Many retailers have observed the huge potential of the Internet and mobile end consumption in 2015 holidays, and are irresistible.

According to the data, online shopping accounts for only 10% to 15% of total consumption in the US market.

Matt Boss, an analyst at JPMorgan securities, points out that the retail store in the United States is entering a pition period. "It is expected that the store will be substantially reduced in the next 5 to 10 years, and the number of stores may be less 1/3."

In fact, the entity store was not defeated by the electricity supplier, but was defeated by itself.

They just don't know, or they don't want to know.

This has to reveal the secret of that year.

In 2009, I gave an electronic commerce platform Merchants Department store category, the degree of enthusiasm is the terminal store is higher than the agent, the agent is higher than the brand dealer.

Terminal stores only give settlement price, do not control our retail price; we certainly sell much cheaper than the physical store, and it is the new product of that year.

In 2010, Tmall double 11 did a good job. Many famous brands began to attach importance to the network channel. The vast majority of them were old stock goods, and the industry terminology was: clear tail goods.

A certain brand of women's clothing in Guangdong was sold at the price standard of Tmall, which was 50 percent off last year, 60 percent off of the previous year, and the settlement price for us was 72% off last year, 80 percent off the previous year, and the retail price was the same as Tmall.

By the way, most consumers do not know that we are buying the old stock, only knowing that we are cheaper than the physical stores.

In the second half of 2011, it was also the women's clothing brand, which mainly attacked Tmall channel, and produced a large number of styles for Tmall. Of course, the price was much cheaper than the physical store.

My wife said that she would not buy this brand in the store. The Internet is much cheaper, and the quality and style are not bad.

In 2013, the brand of women's clothing was bought pretty well online, nearly 1 hundred million, but offline stores began to grow.

Year-on-year overall sales increased little, and profits fell a little.

I also found a rule: the traditional brand, the better online sales, the more offline outlets.

If you remember correctly, Lining, seven wolves and other brands, some department stores, began to scale off stores.

The women's clothing brand owner is also very confused, and has been trying hard to pform for several years. The network and the line are completely separated, and can not stop the decline of the entity store.

Why is that so?

I share this dress brand briefly. The rate of increase is about 5 times, and the rate of increase is about 4 times.

But online competition is fierce and the amount of money to go online is about 3 times the actual retail price and about 2.5 times the activity cost.

Even if product segments are made, most consumers' perception is that online shopping is cheaper because it is really cheap.

This is a typical case of a physical shop being defeated by oneself.

But I have summed up a law from pure electric business to the whole channel: if online and offline can not achieve the same price, then the entity store will be defeated by itself.

This theory applies not only to brand dealers but also to channel providers, such as department stores, large supermarkets, specialized shops, etc.

This theory should also apply to most retail products.

I find that many traditional brands always think that the entity store is defeated by the electricity supplier.

This is a problem of thinking level. "The physical shop is defeated by the electricity supplier" is the superficial phenomenon. "The physical shop is defeated by oneself" is the fundamental reason; the former is used to look for the external environment reason, but the latter is accustomed to change itself.

After so many years of observation, 99.9% of the people are the former, which is a great pity.

Remember, the main road is to Jane.

Conversely, online and offline channels can achieve the same price with the same price, and the physical store is likely to rise.

The supply side reform in the circulation field can seek reform from two aspects: the external business environment of enterprises and the management of enterprises themselves.

From the external business environment, the government's market is at least an active market, while the government supported market is a sluggish market.

If we continue to suppress the market is still active, that shows that the suppression policy may be partial failure or ineffective; if sustained support for the market is still in the doldrums, it shows that there is no key support for market start-up.

In the past, the way to manage circulation is the invoice card! The goal is very simple: let the people basically get enough to wear warm! Now what is the goal? Circulation reform should be based on improving the "circulation efficiency".

Production efficiency is the problem of local resource allocation; circulation efficiency is the problem of overall resource allocation; production efficiency involves the relationship between man and nature; the efficiency of circulation involves the redistribution of interests between people, which is the essential relationship of society.

The efficiency of circulation directly determines the degree of social harmony.

Management methods such as drug bidding, drug price management, government procurement, state owned business, government subsidy, and multi head regulation should be sought in order to find out the problems, departments, fields and regulations that the government manages in the process of circulation.

This is the first priority. However, the current situation of the Ministry of Commerce, the Commerce Commission and the commerce department is: to do something, but to be weak, and to improve at the same level, can not be pushed forward, resulting in the lack of strength. For example, the circulation of the national team, the Jinding Yin Ding Department selection, the agricultural super docking, the 10000 villages and thousands of townships and so on, all need to be reconsidered and evaluated.

The key points in domestic trade are two points: first, to maintain fair competition; and second, to safeguard consumer rights and interests.

The natural monopoly is administrative monopoly = the unequal unfair competition.

The reform of circulation should be adapted to three aspects: first, to adapt to the characteristics of the times, the biggest impact on the government is the Internet or the Internet. The government must first adapt to it, open, pparent, service, fair, reasonable and honest. Two, it is to adapt to the upgrading of consumption, enhance the awareness of consumer rights, circulate into the vent valve and funnel hole, do not serve well, and the enterprises and the government will be troubled. Three, adapting to the pformation of enterprises, pforming state-owned enterprises into private enterprises and marketization, this is the general trend.

There are four basic directions: one is to pay attention to mass consumption, such as strengthening community business in terms of people's livelihood, strengthening regulation and construction of new business forms, and properly restricting some aspects.

From the point of circulation efficiency, the traditional "pick up retail" is superior to the "delivery retailing" of e-commerce. Chinese people are numerous. If the convenience of consumers is arbitrarily flooded, new social problems will soon appear in a few years, such as pportation, environmental protection, human nature and so on.

Two, we should pay attention to rural consumption, upgrade the retail formats and business facilities, integrate with the needs of urban businesses, and manage commercial chaos.

In the double management system of collective and family, the collective economy is seriously missing. The contradiction between "small farmers" and "big market" restricts the improvement of the circulation efficiency of agricultural products.

The production environment in China is "congenital deficient" due to changes in climate, water sources and farmland. This is the basic cause of food safety problems.

Cultivating the ecological environment of urban and rural symbiosis, developing large-scale agriculture and increasing farmers' income are the only way to promote the development of circulation industry in China.

The city should nurture the countryside, and should not dump the waste in the countryside. Otherwise, the urban people can only eat "garbage". Three, we should pay attention to the consumption of young people, and the new consumption hot spots need to be nurtured and guided.

The four is to pay attention to the consumption of the elderly, and to embody public welfare, convenience and humanity.

Government management circulation must embody five basic functions, that is, regulation, planning, approval, supervision and service, all of which depend on data first.

In short, the government should not be too sentimental. Taxpayers should use their money reasonably, and the government should be reasonable and talk about what people can understand and accept.