Cotton Prices Stabilize Rebound, Follow-Up Market Is Worth Looking Forward To

ICE cotton futures closed up on Monday. The most active May contract rose 1.14 cents to close at 58.29 cents, the biggest one-day gain since the beginning of December. The market has no obvious positive news. The rise is mainly technical.

The cotton price is at a low level. After two consecutive days of stabilization, it has attracted some of the funds coming into the market. Other data show that speculators have increased their ICE cotton futures options to 9673 hands, to 36537 hands, the highest level since May 2006. This shows the trend of the fund. To some extent, ICE cotton futures price will continue to rebound in recent days, which is limited by the fundamental improvement.

The futures contract for the 1609 month contract opened higher on Monday, rising 5 yuan, closing at 10115 yuan, closing about 301 thousand hands and holding about 632 thousand hands.

On the spot, China's cotton price index 3128B cotton newspaper 11983 point fell 22 points yesterday, the spot index continued to fall, fell below 12000 front-line, the decline has expanded compared with the previous few days, and with the fall of the cotton price, the spot price will also be weak, especially the low level, some capital pressure enterprises have increased sales promotion.

As soon as possible to recover the funds, the market is still in the waiting period, the news is relatively flat, Zheng cotton futures yesterday after high inflation, followed by the surrounding commodity down, the overall maintenance of the weak, the recent performance will be low adjustment.

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According to customs statistics, in February 2016, China exported about 15 billion 658 million US dollars of textiles and garments, of which 6 billion 83 million were exported to textile yarn, fabrics and products, and 9 billion 575 million US dollars for export garments and accessories.

In 2016 1~2, China exported 39 billion 789 million US dollars of textiles and garments, of which 15 billion 533 million were exported to textile yarn, fabrics and products, and 24 billion 256 million US dollars for export garments and accessories.

"Textile and clothing exports decreased by 35.11% in February, and textile yarns, fabrics and products decreased by 35.63%, and clothing and accessories decreased by 34.78%."

Xu Xiaomiao, an analyst of Zhuzhou textile industry, told reporters.

According to Xu Xiaomiao, two reasons led to the decline of China's textile and clothing exports in February.

"On the one hand, the short-term export of textile and clothing has led to a sharp decline in the export of textiles and clothing.

The first half of February 2016 coincided with the Lunar New Year holiday. The impact of holidays on trade almost completely fell on February.

During the long holidays in China, textile and clothing trade almost stopped, and the sharp drop in trade volume is imperative.

Throughout the past few years, the lowest months of textile and clothing trade often occurred in February or March, the main reason is the Spring Festival holiday caused market suspension.

Xu Xiaomiao said.

"On the other hand, the rising demand for textile products has also led to a decline in exports of textile and clothing."

Xu Xiaomiao said that in February 2016, the export volume of textiles and clothing dropped sharply compared with the same period last year.

The ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia have low labor resources and preferential cotton import policies, leading to the obvious cost advantages of textile exports in the EU and Japan. They occupy the market share of China's textiles and clothing overseas. At the same time, the economic conditions of the developed economies themselves are uneven, and the global textile trade volume is in a downward channel, which also impede China's textile exports.

In addition, Xu Xiaomiao believes that the import volume accounts for less than 10% of the total import and export volume.

"According to customs statistics, the import and export volume of China's textile and clothing accounts for only 7%~10% of exports.

In 2015, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 283 billion 900 million US dollars, imported 25 billion 610 million US dollars, and the ratio of exports to imports was 100:9.02.

In January 2016, the ratio of China's textile and clothing exports to imports was 100:7.48.

Therefore, China is a country that is a net exporter of textiles and clothing, and the change in import volume is hardly noticeable.

Xu Xiaomiao said.