Global Trade Further Fell To Freezing Point

In the 2016 government report, there were no

The import and export set quantitative indicators, only known as "the import and export stabilization is good, the balance of payments is basically balanced".

This is also the indicator, which disappeared again in 2013 after the government report.

On the afternoon of March 9th, Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, responded that international trade continued to slump, and the import and export of the 31 main economies in the world in 1 and February declined.

The world bank predicts that this year's Global trade growth is the lowest in six years, and the risk is difficult to determine. "Under such circumstances, it is difficult to make quantitative indicators, so in this year's government work report, we should make qualitative rather than quantitative indicators."

The trade cold winter of 2009 is still fresh in mind. In that year, the total import and export volume was 22073 billion US dollars, down 13.9% compared with the same period last year.

Even under such circumstances, the following year (2010), China put forward a target of growth of about 10% of the total import and export volume.

In 2015, the total value of imports and exports was 3 trillion and 960 billion US dollars, down 8% compared to the same period last year. The growth rate has not fallen below the low level, but the target of foreign trade regulation has disappeared in the government work report.

Obviously, we may be more pessimistic about the trade situation we are facing this year, or even more uncertain about many uncertainties.

"In fact, global economic growth is expected to be the lowest in six years."

Gao Hucheng said that international trade continued to be sluggish, and the differences between macroeconomic policies of major economies were increasing.

The global economy, trade, exchange rate and commodity prices fluctuate.

Risks and uncertainties are difficult to ascertain.

With the 2015 Global trade data released,

There is growing concern that the global trade situation in 2016 may be more severe than before.

The import and export data of the major trading nations in the first two months of this year seem to have predicted this trend.

This year, Global trade has fallen further to freezing point.

Japan's exports fell 12.9% in January, the biggest decline since 2009.

South Korea's exports in January were down 18.5% to $36 billion 740 million, the most reliable economic indicator in the world, which declined for thirteenth consecutive months, down 10.3% from the expected rate and recorded the biggest decline since 2009 August.

Bulk bulk measurement

The Baltic dry bulk index (BDI) of trade has hit historic lows.

In 2014, China overtook the United States as the world's largest trading nation. China's exports and imports fell by two digits in 1 and February.

Andrew Kenningham, a senior global economist at Kay investment, points out that most indicators indicate that trade growth will remain very weak from a global perspective.

First, the global economy and trade have entered a slow development period.

Compared with 11 and December last year, the International Monetary Fund and the world bank have lowered the global growth forecast for two times this year by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points respectively.

Before the financial crisis in 2008, Global trade continued to grow at a rate of two times that of the global economy for decades.

However, since 2011, trade growth has slowed sharply, flat or even lower than the global economic growth rate.

Second, the Fed's interest rate increase and the competitive depreciation of multinational currencies bring about the uncertainty of monetary policy and the instability of exchange rate fluctuations, which leads to the uncertainty of foreign trade.

There is also the debt risk of emerging market countries.

The rising debt level of emerging market countries after the financial crisis will bring risks and instability to emerging market economies, eroding the sustainability of the financial markets of emerging market countries, and a sharp decline in the external trade of emerging market economies.

Finally, prices of commodities such as oil, iron ore, copper, lead and grain have been low for the past year, and emerging market countries, such as oil and other resources and raw materials, have been hit hard.

Whether the 2016 commodity prices will rebound will largely affect China's foreign trade.

In addition, China's foreign trade has entered a stage of pformation and upgrading, and the export industry of traditional comparative advantage has been shrinking, and the new export advantages can hardly be highlighted in the short term.

In such uncertain factors, the Chinese government and enterprises themselves have limited control points.

Only by making use of this period of time can we do well in pformation and upgrading so as to achieve steady and favorable development of import and export rather than blindly pursuing a single digit.