Ministry Of Commerce: It Is Possible For Foreign Trade To Stabilize.

According to customs statistics, in the first 2 months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports has declined considerably. This reflects the fact that demand for international market is still very weak in 2016, and the foreign trade situation is still grim and complicated.

What needs to be explained is that in the first two months of 2015, the base was relatively high, and the export volume was $199 billion 890 million in January. The monthly export volume was the third highest in the whole year. In February, the export grew by 48.2% over the same period last year. The monthly growth rate was the highest in the whole year. With the influence of the Spring Festival, the data in the first 2 months of this year had many factors that could not be compared, and it could not fully reflect the trend of the whole year's foreign trade.

Shen Danyang said that from the recent survey of 20 provinces and municipalities across the country, enterprises generally reflected that the overall situation of foreign trade in 2016 was indeed more complex than in 2015, and the difficulties in 2015 did not decrease or even aggravate.

Although the situation is grim and complicated, we have many favorable conditions to do this year's foreign trade work. We still have the confidence and determination to work hard to accomplish the various tasks of foreign trade put forward in the government work report, to promote the stability of foreign trade and to play a greater role in economic and social development.

From the international perspective,

The world bank and other authoritative institutions generally lowered the global economic growth rate in 2016 to the lowest level in 6 years. The Baltic Dry Index dropped to 349 points, the lowest level in history.

The prices of international commodities and raw materials continued to decline, still lingering low, the situation in some areas was turbulent, trade protectionism was rising, and trade frictions increased.

We also note that exports of 30 major economies in the world, which have recently released this year's foreign trade data, have dropped sharply to varying degrees. Of these, more than 10 of the major economies with a decline of more than 2 digits were exported, for example, the US decreased by 10.7%, Japan decreased by 12.9%, Korea decreased by 18.8%, and Canada decreased by 12.4%.

It dropped by 17.9%, India by 13.6%, and Taiwan by 13%.

From the domestic situation, the factor cost of enterprises continues to rise, the traditional competitive advantage of foreign trade weakens, fixed asset investment continues to slow down, import demand drops, especially the outward pfer of industries and orders is accelerating.

Exports have declined for 12 consecutive months, exceeding the level of the international financial crisis.

These heralded difficulties in foreign trade are not short-term.

Shen Danyang said that while fully recognizing the seriousness and complexity of the foreign trade situation, we also see that China's industrial structure with developed countries and developing countries still has strong complementarity. The infrastructure is perfect, the industry is complete and the business environment is continuously improving. It has strong comprehensive competitive advantages and comparative advantages. The Fundamentals of China's foreign trade development have not changed.

At the same time, the structure of foreign trade development has been continuously optimized, pformation and upgrading, and power pformation are accelerating.

Some enterprises focus on the main industry, continue to innovate, cultivate their own brands, increase overseas marketing network construction, and continuously enhance their international competitiveness.

More importantly, according to the decision and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce and the relevant parties have made every effort to grow steadily and unswervingly adjust their structure. A series of practical and effective policies and measures are being implemented or will be introduced.

For example, we should vigorously clean up the import and export link fees, formulate a positive list of charges, further improve the level of trade facilitation, optimize the export tax rebate rate structure, ensure timely and full tax rebates, increase export credit insurance and financing support, increase short-term export credit insurance regulations, guarantee the export financing insurance for complete sets of equipment, encourage new business models such as cross-border electricity suppliers, and strive to cultivate new advantages in foreign trade competition.

This also means that the new growth momentum of China's foreign trade is accumulating.

Therefore, we expect that after March, the decline of China's foreign trade will gradually narrow down, and it will be possible for foreign trade to stabilize.