Li Huiyong'S Interpretation Of Fiscal Policy In The First Half Year

There are three changes in the economic opening in 2016.

First of all, the investment is getting warmer, but the industry is in a slump.

Second, short-term price rises, but the upward pressure on CPI remains limited throughout the year.

Third, the credit downturn in February is a normal return.

The improvement of the real economy is not obvious. Monetary policy and broad fiscal policy still need to be coordinated.

From January to February, macroeconomic data have been released. How can we see the next step of policy control from the economic start? Wan Hongyuan, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shen, told reporters in an interview with China Securities Journal that there are three changes in the economic opening of 2016 in January.

First of all, the investment is getting warmer. But in the industrial downturn, consumption is stable.

Fixed assets investment, real estate new construction and construction area are looking forward to indicators. In January and February, loans increased to support capital construction investment, but the negative growth of real estate development funds meant that the subsequent growth rate of real estate investment will have a twists and turns.

Second, short-term price rises, but not inflation.

The recent rebound in commodity prices is the result of a combination of short-term supply improvements and fluctuations in loose liquidity. It does not have a sustained trend of change, but it will affect inflation expectations.

But the upward pressure on CPI continues to be limited throughout the year.

Third, the credit downturn in February is a normal return.

New areas of credit are mainly concentrated in new urbanization and new economy and pformation projects.

The improvement is not obvious. Monetary policy and broad fiscal policy still need to be coordinated.

Li Huiyong believes that the positive fiscal policy will be reflected in the first half of this year.

The US interest rate increase and the general slowdown of emerging market growth and other unstable factors are increasing. We need to make positive financial efforts to speed up support for economic growth and further release domestic demand.

2016 is an important year for the 13th Five-Year plan. This year's fiscal revenue growth has dropped to 3% and the fiscal expenditure has been reduced to 6.7%.

The contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure is increasing, and the deficit rate target has been raised to 3%. The new deficit will mainly be used to support tax reduction and tax reduction.

On the one hand, with the full start of May 1st, the camp changed to increase, "2016".

The total size is close to 600 billion yuan, which is conducive to reducing the tax burden of the real economy, stimulating market vitality and enhancing the driving force for development.

On the other hand, the government will increase support for key areas such as people's livelihood, poverty alleviation, energy conservation and environmental protection, and the elimination of excess capacity, and appropriately increase the necessary financial expenditure and government investment.

In addition, we should appropriately expand the scale of central and local debt, ease local financial pressure by arranging special debts, continuing debt replacement and innovating financial investment, so as to strengthen local debt management and guard against local debt crisis.

Finally, we should give full play to the role of CDB and other policy finance, and increase support for industries and enterprises that need state support.