Experts Interpret The Stock Market: Market Style Again This Week

Under the background of the policy environment warming and people's thinking, how will the market outlook be changed? What are the conditions for the market to rise?

Wang Delun: in the short term, the attitude of regulators to protect the market helps to enhance market risk preference and generate opportunities for short-term games.

But in the medium to long term, uncertainty will increase, and we need to guard against the adjustment brought about by the rising risk premium.

First, the vision of the supply side's full reform needs to face the reality of "bone".

In the process of capacity and deleveraging, the degree and duration of "pain" faced by relevant industries may exceed expectations.

Two, credit risk exposure may lead to rapid contraction of risk preference.

Three, the lifting of the US dollar interest rate and RMB exchange rate concerns may be phased.

Any one of the three factors may trigger a rise in risk premium alone.

Therefore, the A share market is wandering in the low position, eliminating the false and preserving the truth, resolving the bubble and laying a solid foundation in order to make a better journey.

The conditions for the market to rise, that is, these risks are phased stable, that is, supply side reform, credit risk and RMB exchange rate are three stable factors. A shares can usher in a new market.

From another point of view, the fundamentals (from top to bottom, for economic growth and bottom to top business profits) are the most important conditions to drive the market up.

With the introduction of the government work report and the "13th Five-Year plan" and the effect of the recent steady growth policy, investors' expectations for China's economy have been enhanced and market sentiment has gradually recovered.

In addition, the US Federal Reserve has announced that the current interest rate will remain unchanged, and the rate of increase in interest rates will be reduced from four to two in 2016.

Macroeconomic and RMB exchange rate are the main factors that affect the current market. With the signs of economic improvement and the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the market volatility will increase in the short term.

From the recent market trend, though the volume is at a low level, there are obvious signs of gradual enlargement.

First, the heavyweight market, then.

First of all, we can see that the market earning effect is gradually emerging.

More recent news has prevailed.

In addition, the US Federal Reserve temporarily raises interest rates, giving the nervous global market a breathing space.

In the above context, A shares are expected to continue to shock upward.

However, if we want to maintain this state continuously, the market still needs to meet the following three conditions: first, the pace of issuing new shares can not be too fast; two, monetary easing policy can be sustained; three, the reform policies continue to be implemented, so that the dividends of reform continue to be reflected in the stock market.

The rising of follow-up market requires China's macro economy to cooperate with the international environment.

The recovery of the economy will help to improve the market expectations of investors, while the international market environment will affect the direction of the RMB exchange rate. The decline in foreign exchange reserves makes investors more sensitive to changes in the international market, and the next time the Fed raises interest rates will be a major factor affecting the international market structure.