There Are Still Many Reasons Why The Economy Is Going To Rise And Fall.

At present, most people who watch the economy are one of them.

Some people think that I want to deliberately stock up the stock market.

Besides, the bearish economy is not necessarily empty of the stock market. The bearish market is not necessarily empty of plate and structural opportunities.

Since the beginning of this year, I have written many essays. I remember writing that "the phenomenon of high valuation of stocks will continue" and why "100 times price earnings ratio stocks have more investment value than 20 times".

When the stock price goes up, it will get a lot of praise. When it falls, it gets a lot of abuse.

In fact, no matter the economy or stock market, they will not change along a diagonal line or down a diagonal line.

There will be many repeated or even reversed.

But people are logical, but often a straight line, such as the depreciation of the RMB depreciation rate, then immediately think of 1:7 or even 1:8, the slope slows down, the depreciation expectation is greatly reduced.

The recent appreciation of the renminbi has triggered a surge in the stock market.

But I think the depreciation of the RMB will be a long-term trend. It is impossible for five years to be in place. After all, the appreciation of RMB has lasted for 9 years.

Similarly, China's economy can not collapse immediately.

In order to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States had a deficit rate of nearly 09 in the past 10% years, and China is currently only about 3%. Moreover, the balance sheet of the Chinese government is much stronger than that of the US government.

Over the past 25 years, the proportion of countries experiencing economic recession has been very high, and the United States, Japan, Germany and so on have been in more than two times, but China and France have not once.

Why? The power of the government is very strong.

Of course not.

It is not necessarily a good thing, just like a person who always does not have a fever or health.

People's pessimistic expectations or optimistic expectations are easy to be strengthened because people are rational and emotional animals.

A person's life determines his vision.

Therefore, the fluctuation of stock market is actually the fluctuation of mood.

At the beginning of the year, it was too serious about the RMB, the economy to see the space, the monetary policy and the registration system. Once there was a bad expectation, pessimism turned into optimism.

We always worry about the end of the world. In fact, there is no end to the world, but everyone has an end.

For most of the years

People have always been looking for reasons for their assets to rise.

In my view, any asset price rise can be found out.

Such as stock market

Even if not reflected in the index, it can also be reflected in individual industries, the down payment ratio of the purchase is down, and the real estate stocks will surely benefit; the situation in the South China Sea is tense and the military industry shares perform well.

But not all asset prices need clear reasons.

For example, the price of space commemorative coins issued this year has risen from 10 yuan to 63 yuan, or 5 times more than that of most IPO shares.

The 15 year old new year's money (2 sheep) is also 10 yuan face value, and now it has risen to 123 yuan, up 11 times.

The reasons for the rise in asset prices do not need to study industry attributes, company growth or whether they belong to the core of the first tier cities.

Holland's tulip bulbs have been frisked, and Clivia has been fired, even Pu'er tea, garlic and ginger.

In particular, when the monetary scale continues to expand and the asset shortage becomes more prominent, the overall valuation level will be raised.

The real stock market masters are those who can accurately understand individual psychology and can be anti humanity.

Of course, not all markets are blogger, and the mainstream mature markets in the world are still applicable to value investing philosophy.

In the A share market, retail accounts account for about 15% of the market value, which is also considered a retail market because the volume of trading accounts for more than 80%.

In order to protect the interests of retail investors, the stability index becomes the target, and the one or two level market regulation becomes a means.

That being the case, it is impossible for us to form a stock market with reasonable valuation system and economic fluctuation.