PTA Supply Is Much Lower Than Expected.

Since March, the PTA equipment has been restarted in China, and the comprehensive start-up load has been continuously improved. In addition, the supply of new products has increased significantly.

Ningbo MITSUBISHI 700 thousand tons PTA device has been restarted last weekend, as of March 30th, the domestic PTA integrated start load continued to rise to 75.2%, far more than the same period last year.

However, according to the latest understanding, Hon Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA new device failed to stop in March 25th. It is difficult to restart in the short term. The factory has cancelled the contract volume of the new equipment in April.

Although Yisheng has not yet introduced a maintenance plan recently, it has reduced the volume of 10% of Zhejiang's customers in April.

In addition, Yangzi Petrochemical reduced its burden in late March.

Planned maintenance in April.

The actual supply volume of the market is significantly lower than expected, while the demand for downstream polyester has entered the peak season. The PTA market is expected to come and go to the inventory cycle.

However, the delivery pressure of warehouse receipts has continued to increase. According to the author's tracking data, as of March 30th, the amount of registered warehouse receipts has been close to 130 thousand (including effective forecasts), which is equivalent to nearly 650 thousand tons.

In addition, the contradiction between polyester and terminal still exists.

After a substantial increase in price of polyester products, although the price has dropped slightly in recent years, the efficiency of the bomb and weaving industry has been expanded, and production enthusiasm has improved.

Without buying or falling, the atmosphere of the bomb factory is down, and the factory stock is beginning to show signs of improvement. The market mentality has not yet improved.

Terminal market demand has entered a seasonal upgrading stage, and is expected to continue to drive.

The start-up load of polyester industry has also shown a continuous improvement in recent years.

As of March 30th, the domestic polyester plant load was 83.1%.

From 4 to May, the start-up of polyester plant is expected to maintain high load operation. The average load of polyester plant has exceeded the level of the same period last year, close to the level of commencement of the peak season in previous years, and the space for further improvement is limited. Later, it is concerned about the sustainability of its high load start up.

Crude oil inventories grew by 2 million 300 thousand barrels a week compared with the previous week, and inventories rose by 9 million 360 thousand barrels a week.

The current market is focused on the upcoming oil production meeting in mid April. Iran and other countries have said they will not abandon the market share before sanctions. If frozen production agreement is reached, it will not improve the oversupply pattern of the crude oil market.

In addition, the share of us production cuts will be basically filled by Iran's expected increase in output.

The author believes that the structural repair of crude oil spreads has basically been completed. If there is no substantial change in the fundamentals of the latter period, the probability of short-term weakness will be greater.

The price of PX is relatively strong in recent years, and the increase of start-up load of downstream PTA plant has certain support for it. But the most important factor is that the PX device in Asia is coming to the maintenance season.

Sinopec issued a PX contract price of 6300 yuan / ton in April, up 205 yuan / ton from last month's settlement price.

It is understood that, from 4 to June, although there is no overhaul plan for domestic PX devices, there will be over 3 million tons of PX devices in the Asian region for overhaul and maintenance period of 30 to 45 days. There is a downward trend in market supply, which is expected to re enter a tight equilibrium state, and PX price trend is likely to rise and fall.