Three PMI Rebound Exceeded Market Expectations

April 1st, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center and China

The Federation of purchasing and purchasing has released the China manufacturing and non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March.

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, said that from the data point of view, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry increased to an expansion interval in March, and the PMI of non manufacturing industries rose significantly.

Specific data show that in March,

PMI was 50.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month, and for the first time since August last year, some positive changes began to appear.

The PMI of non manufacturing industry was 53.8%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from last month, a larger increase in the past two years, slightly higher than the same period last year.

In addition, the PMI of Caixin manufacturing industry in March was 49.7%, 1.4 percentage points higher than market expectations, 1.7 percentage points higher than that in February.

According to the size of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises is 51.5%, up 1.6 percentage points from last month. This is the main support for PMI's return to expansion zone this month. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises is 49.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and continues to be below the critical point; small enterprises PMI is 48.1%, up 3.7 percentage points from last month, and is still located in the contraction area.

"According to the data, after the Spring Festival, the enterprises are concentrating on their work.

The impact of structural reform on manufacturing production and market is getting warmer. The demand for import and export of manufacturing industry has picked up and returned to expansion.

At the same time, the price of international commodity prices rebounded, and the prices of important production materials continued to rebound in some areas of circulation, and the activities of purchasing enterprises became more active.

The structural adjustment has been actively promoted, and the manufacturing industry has continued to move towards the middle and high end.

In addition, the rebound in fixed asset investment and the rebound in the real estate market will play a catalytic role in both production and consumption.

Zhao Qinghe said.

Ren Zeping, chief macroeconomic analyst of Guotai Junan Securities, said in a media interview that manufacturing PMI, non manufacturing PMI and Caixin PMI rebounded in March, exceeding the market expectations.

Supply, demand and price have increased substantially, and there are obvious signs of short-term improvement in the economy and no stagflation.

Zhu Zhenxin, a researcher at Minsheng securities, said in an interview with media reporters that the demand index for production demand rebounded sharply, indicating that enterprises resumed after the Spring Festival and the economy stabilized in the short term. It is estimated that the two quarter will be the best window period for the whole year.

In the first quarter, the high growth rate of credit cooperatives was deviated from the funds in place. After the two quarter commencement of the project, the high social harmony will gradually enter the project and become a capital in place.

At the same time, the investment in the new construction plan increased by 41%, a record high since 2009.

With the support of money and projects, the two quarter may become the release stage of the previous policy, and the economy is expected to improve.

Economic stabilization and inflation expectations are heating up. Monetary policy will continue to be dominated by hedging, and the big move still needs to wait.