Depth Analysis Of The 7 Major Predicament Faced By China'S Economy 2016

The first big predicament: export slowdown, real estate kidnapping

China's "world factory", which has gone through ten glorious years in 2001-2010 years, has finally fallen into an endless decline.

There have been several business failures in Dongguan. In 2015, no less than 4000 enterprises closed.

The turning point of the decline of the world factory was in 2008. From 2008 to 2012, the public figures were that 7.2 enterprises in Dongguan were closed.

Now, the collapse of Dongguan enterprises, characterized by labor intensive, marks the end of China's economic growth mode with overdraft ecological environment and labor cost.

Before that, the three carriages that pulled China's economic growth were officially invested as investment, foreign trade and domestic demand. Now these three carriages are all burning together, and foreign trade carriages can no longer pull China's economic growth.

Over the past 20 years, real estate has been a leading industry in China's economic growth.

There was a period of time when the highly frothy real estate industry came to a standstill. As a result, dozens of upstream and downstream enterprises led by the decline of the housing market were caught up in overcapacity.

For example, the iron and steel industry and cement industry overcapacity in the real estate industry is up to 30%, and the related industries such as flooring, furniture and textile industry are also in excess.

This overcapacity crisis is likened to the "nuclear threat of China's economy", that is, like nuclear bombs, it is possible to detonate economic crisis at any time.

As a result, we have to reinvigorate real estate now. As a result, the national property market, represented by Shenzhen, ushered in the third round of soaring property market.

Real estate has abducted economic growth, puncturing the bubble means GDP plunging, no one has the courage.

This is the first big predicament.

Second predicament: talent begins dislocation, recruitment is difficult and job search is difficult.

An interesting phenomenon is that it is not only hard to recruit workers, but also difficult to find jobs.

Why do these two things happen at the same time? The essence of it is that Chinese talents are starting to be misplaced.

It is mainly reflected in:

First, the rural surplus labor force.

With the collapse of the world factory, a large number of migrant workers returned home, but there was nothing to do at home.

The two is white-collar white-collar workers.

With the withdrawal of large numbers of foreign capital, many white-collar white-collar workers lose a decent job, but they are unwilling to let go of their bodies.

Three, college students are not right.

The speed of renewal of new knowledge and skills by the Internet is far from what traditional university textbooks can follow.

Four is the anxiety of unemployed youth.

These people are not well educated, and face almost all kinds of new industries.

The five is the conflict brought by intelligence.

On the one hand, we are in urgent need of high-end workers who can manipulate these machines. On the other hand, blue collar workers in traditional factories can not adapt to such programmed operation.

Therefore, on the one hand, we find that no suitable person can be recruited. On the other hand, many job seekers can not get the right job.

The third dilemma: serious resource crisis and high external dependence.

China's environmental pollution is three-dimensional, that is, the serious pollution of water (rivers, lakes and seas), land (land) and air (air), which is caused by extensive development of China's economy.

Whether it is the future production material or the food as a means of living, we lack a good resource base.

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Stone such as oil is known as "economic blood", China now imports more than 60%, and iron, copper, zinc and other metal ores are also highly dependent on foreign countries.

Food is the main concern of the people. In terms of grain, China's agricultural population accounts for 60%, but the grain self-sufficiency rate has dropped to 87% by 2014. The three main staple foods, such as soybeans, corn and wheat, all rely on imports.

What does this figure mean? Aside from the food pollution caused by land pollution, China's population of nearly 200 million of its population depends on imports.

This makes China's grain price fluctuate with the fluctuation of the grain price in the international market. As long as there are natural disasters and man-made disasters, such as wars, the grain prices will rise in the grain producing countries.

The resource crisis will be a long-term problem. Of course, new technological revolution is taking place. New energy can be a good buffer, but it is not enough to solve this problem.

The fourth dilemma: the local government is deeply in debt.

The size of China's total debt, estimated by foreign investment banks the year before last, was 168% of the total GDP in China (the McKinsey Global Institute released the latest report in May 8, 2015, and China's total debt has reached 282% of GDP).

Only a small part of this is personal debt, most of which is government debt and corporate debt, of which local governments account for about 20 trillion of the total debt.

Now the way is, 20 trillion of the debt reported by the local government, partly by the central government, partly by the market, and the rest by the local government and the provincial government.

Fifth major predicament:

Besides the debt crisis, there are also the rising bad debt rate and the huge liquidity surplus caused by the superfluous currency.

Now is the third bad debt peak caused by real estate bad debts since reform.

In addition, the rapid growth of China's economy in recent 30 years is also inseparable from the super currency.

In just 10 years of 2003-2013 years, the basic currency increased by 88 trillion yuan, and foreign exchange assets increased by 3 trillion and 400 billion dollars.

In the period of investment boom, the negative effect of over money is not obvious. In recent years, investment slowed down, resulting in increased domestic savings and increased idle funds, which aggravated the plight of excess liquidity.

Because of the very few sterilizing tools, the central bank has finally thought of a sterilizing method: "pool theory", the main idea is: in order to deal with short-term speculative capital, that is, hot money inflow, we need to reinforce the flood control embankment; we must build a reservoir for the hot money that has entered the country.

Popularly speaking, one is real estate, building a pool of real estate and circulating liquidity.

This is the reason why China's housing prices are rising steadily and ranking the highest in the world.

Another is stock, China has made so many banknotes, but from the basic necessities, the inflation rate does not seem to be high, mainly because the consumer price index (CPI) has not calculated the real estate, and the United States has included the real estate price in CPI.

If property prices are included in CPI, China's inflation rate may be higher.

Sixth predicament: society begins to solidify, and the mobility of the class is poor.

Peking University has released a report on China's livelihood development, with the top 1% of households occupying more than 1/3 of the country's property. The total assets of the bottom 25% of households are only around 1%.

In fact, this is not the most important thing, because measuring the potential of a society depends on whether the society has enough mechanisms to enable young people to fight for it, so it must have a good upward path.

However, many traditional mechanisms are still restricting the development of young people, such as the selection of civil servants, the encouragement of entrepreneurial policies, the setting of various thresholds and so on. In many areas, we must emancipate our minds.

The seventh predicament: emerging industries and

The new industry represented by Internet plus and intelligent manufacturing is China's hope. However, due to the devastating effect of this innovation, it touches on the interests of many traditional enterprises, such as Taobao's inconsistency with entity stores, taxi companies, and so on, so that China is at a stage of inactive contact.

This is an era without breakage and no standing. We must reluctantly give up our love, abandon traditional and backward models, and face new things with a zeroing attitude. Only in this way can China's economy develop into the second spring.