China's Economy Has Made A Good Start This Year.

The latest quarterly data show that China's economy has made a good start this year. Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, said in an interview with the China Securities Journal reporter that the growth rate of the third industry declined from the first quarter of GDP to 6.7%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the fourth quarter of last year. However, we can see that the trend of economic growth is better. Industrial value added and investment data show that the economy has recovered markedly from the low point of the end of last year. Correspondingly, deflation pressure has also been significantly reduced, and the PPI decline has narrowed further.

Looking ahead to the two quarter economic situation, Xu Gao believes that the two quarter economic recovery momentum will continue. He said that from March data, real estate and infrastructure investment is accelerating expansion, and its driving effect on economic growth will continue to grow in the coming months. In addition, monetary policy will continue to be relaxed in terms of policy, and positive fiscal policy is also being stepped up to boost the flow of funds into the real economy. GDP growth in the two quarter is expected to be higher than that in the first quarter, and the annual GDP growth rate is 6.8%.

In the context of shrinking global trade and external economic weakness, future external demand will continue to be weak. China's import decline narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating that the policy of steady growth is driving domestic demand to stabilize. Against this background, this year's trade surplus may be slightly lower than last year. It is initially judged that the weakness of exports, the rise of imports and the narrowing of trade surplus will be the general pattern of this year's foreign trade situation.

It needs to be pointed out that this kind of Balance of trade surplus Narrowing will not increase the pressure of RMB depreciation. It reflects in essence the improvement of the domestic economic situation. In addition, the relevant policies of the government to stabilize the RMB exchange rate have begun to bear fruit, the pressure of capital outflow is continuing to ease, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves is also rising. All these indicate that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable this year and will not depreciate significantly as it did last year.

The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics show the first quarter. CPI There has been a noticeable rise. Turning to the next stage of price movements, Xu Gao said that the current CPI rise is mainly due to the short-term rise in prices of vegetables and pork. Due to the short supply period of vegetables, its rally is not sustainable, and the recent increase has narrowed significantly. In addition, the pig grain ratio has climbed to a historical high level, driving the profit of pig production to improve significantly, and the adjustment of pig supply has begun. Plus pork prices are now at historically high levels, and the driving force for continued growth is limited. It is expected that the growth rate of CPI will peak in the near future, and will gradually descend from the two quarter. The so-called stagflation will not happen.

Over the past 5 years, China's economy has continued to decline. In the next 5 years, China's economic growth will enter a plateau period, and the GDP growth rate will be stabilized at above 6.5% level. The reason for this is not that China's economic structure has been adjusted and optimized, but that economic growth has slipped to the bottom line of policy.

But what we should see is, on the one hand, China consumption The progress of transformation is slow, the pressure of overcapacity is widespread, which brings greater downward pressure to the economy, and the lack of endogenous economic growth momentum; on the other hand, the policy space of our government's bottom line economic growth is broad. Therefore, when the economic growth is approaching the bottom line, we believe that the policy will continue to exert force to maintain economic stability.

Over the past 5 years, China's economy has continued to decline. In the next 5 years, China's economic growth will enter a plateau period, and the GDP growth rate will be stabilized at above 6.5% level. The reason for this is not that China's economic structure has been adjusted and optimized, but that economic growth has slipped to the bottom line of policy. But what should be seen is that, on the one hand, the progress of consumption transformation in China is slow, and the pressure of overcapacity is widespread, which brings greater downward pressure to the economy, and the lack of endogenous economic growth momentum; on the other hand, the policy space of our government's bottom line economic growth is broad. Therefore, when the economic growth is approaching the bottom line, we believe that the policy will continue to exert force to maintain economic stability.