The Swiss Franc And The Yen Have Become The Biggest Winners In The Pound Before The Referendum.

A Reuters poll released on Thursday (April 7th) shows that if the British support the EU in a referendum in June 23rd, the pound will rise 4% immediately after the announcement of the referendum results.

But the survey also showed that if the results of the polls and Gambling company once again proved to be wrong, Britain decided to withdraw from the EU, then the pound fell by 7%.

On Thursday, sterling fell to the lowest level in nearly 2 and a half years against a basket of currencies. Investors are showing more and more concern about the result of the referendum.

Jane Foley, Rabobank of Holland, said: "this highlights how fragile the pound is before any political disturbance. The pound is very vulnerable and the trend is very unstable. We are now several months away from the referendum."

Britain stays in the EU

A slight decrease, but still the weakest leading position in the opposition camp.

The Gambling company situation also shows that Britain's chances of returning to Europe are about 35%.

Analysts say this expectation is basically absorbed in the pound.

At the same time, the options market shows that in the case of great uncertainty,

It was the biggest winner with the yen or the pound before the referendum.

The pound has been battered this year, as investors fear that if Britain is to withdraw from the EU, it will threaten foreign investment flows, and Britain needs these funds to make up for the current account deficit.

Britain's current account deficit is also high in developed countries.

Britain's current account deficit rose to record highs in the fourth quarter. If overseas investors and British bond buyers are frightened by Britain's retreat from Europe, where will Britain go?

The median expected value of nearly 60 analysts surveyed this week is

It will reach 0.79 in 1 months, 0.75 in 6 months, and 0.7350 in 1 years.

At present, the pound is at the level of 1.4065 near the US dollar. The survey shows that the pound / dollar will reach 1.42 in 1 months, 1.43 in 3 months, and 1.48 in 1 years.

In March, the survey's expectations were 1.40, 1.40 and 1.46 respectively.

But according to Reuters survey, the data are based on the weak expectations of the dollar's rise.

The recent Reuters poll also shows that, like the British pound, if the UK is out of the EU, the British economy will go from bad to worse.

Under the influence of the referendum uncertainty, the FTSE 100 index will not rise much in the rest of the year even if it can rise.

Because the result of the referendum is so uncertain, the survey has wide expectations for the pound, and the expected median value is slightly higher than last month.