Stock Market Spring Offensive Bigger And Bigger A Shares Golden Cross

Credit, land acquisition, orders and other leading indicators rebounded sharply, vegetable prices fell, the economy exceeded expectations, inflation was lower than expected, is the gold crossover to do more stock market.

At present, the market is expected to be in the doldrums of reform, but there are frequent policies such as SOE reform, debt to equity swap, business to tax increase, tax reduction, Shenzhen Hong Kong link, supply side reform and capacity development.

The stock market is on the offensive in the spring and the debt market is recuperation.

Market: the stock market's spring offensive, the bond market is recuperating, the housing market is divided, the US dollar stage is peaking, and the bulk rebound.

We put forward "risk appetite repair" and "spring quotes" before and after the two sessions. 410 put forward the "spring offensive" and the stock market continued to attack upside down.

Recently, thanks to the improvement of the profitability of the molecular enterprises, the restoration of the denominator's risk preference, the need for the rotation of large assets, the possibility of potential incremental capital entering the market, and the low valuation of the assets, the spring offensive has been launched.

The economy is more than expected, inflation is lower than expected, is the gold crossover to do more stock market.

4-5 month overall safety, grasp the time window.

Affected by inflation expectations, economic recovery and frequent credit default incidents, the bond market is temporarily recuperated.

International Economy: G20 conference coordinated stable exchange rate, Doha agreement crude oil frozen production until October.

On the 14-15 th of April, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors held a meeting in Washington, D.C., and promised to discuss closely the exchange market, and reiterated that they would avoid competitive devaluation and not focus on the exchange rate for competitive purposes.

According to Reuters, according to the photocopy of the draft agreement on frozen production in Doha, the average daily output of crude oil per month will not exceed the level of January, and the production freeze will continue until October 1st of 2016.

The stock market rose sharply in Europe and America, while crude oil rose. The US dollar index rose to 94.7,10, and the US bond yield rose to 1.75%.

In the first place, the index picked up, the economy started off, the medium and short term W type, the long term L type, the pig vegetable price callback, the inflation worry slightly slowed down.

GDP in the first quarter was 6.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations. Production, investment and consumption were better than market expectations. In March, industry was 6.8%, real estate investment was 9.7%, exports were 18.7%, and social retail sales were 10.5%.

In the first quarter, the economy started well, with steady growth, investment in real estate sales accelerated, PPI improved.

The rise of external demand is related.

Credit, land acquisition, orders and other leading indicators rose sharply and exceeded expectations. The strength of the economic recovery is strong. It is expected to last until the end of the three quarter of the two quarter.

Maintain the medium and short term W type, long term L type judgement.

Affected by regulation and control, commercial housing pactions in the first tier cities have slowed down significantly, but the two or three line continues to spread, and the pmission is obvious. The two or three line cities have sufficient land supply and occupy real estate.

More than 80%, we will increase the forecast of real estate investment growth from 5% to 8% in the 16 years, and raise the GDP forecast from 6.5% to 6.7%.

CPI rose 2.3% in March, lower than expected, PPI fell 4.3%, higher than expected.

CPI moderate does not restrict monetary policy, PPI is better than expected to improve corporate profits.

April high frequency data showed that pork prices rose slightly, vegetable prices such as garlic and garlic fell significantly, the three major caliber food prices fell more than the ring, inflation worries eased.

Currency: credit unions exceed expectations and interest rates are stable.

In March, the new RMB loan was 1 trillion and 370 billion yuan, and the social inclusion was 2 trillion and 340 billion yuan, exceeding the market expectation, which was mainly driven by the purchase of housing and infrastructure.

In March, sales of commercial housing were booming, and residents' medium and long-term loans increased by 439 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 272 billion 700 million yuan over the same period.

Infrastructure projects have been concentrating on construction, housing investment has been accelerated, and medium and long-term credit has increased by 507 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 143 billion 500 million yuan over the same period.

In March, the national fiscal expenditure increased by 20.1% over the same period last year, and the progress of the budget implementation was accelerated.

Affected by inflation expectations and economic recovery, R007 rose slightly to 2.47%. The 10 year treasury bond rate was flat at 2.915%, and credit debt risk was frequent.

The dollar rebounded, the RMB spot rate was slightly derogated to 6.4816.

Policies: frequent reform of state owned enterprises, reform of business to increase, debt to equity swap, and production capacity.

In April 11th, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a special symposium of the State Council, laying down the work of changing the camp and increasing the debt to equity, and gradually reducing the leverage ratio of enterprises.

In April 13th, Li Keqiang chaired the executive meeting of the State Council, and decided to reduce the risk of five risks in one phase in two years. The preliminary estimate that the above measures can reduce the burden of enterprises by about 100000000000 yuan each year.

On the 8 day, Vice Premier Ma Kai of the State Council chaired the eighteenth meeting of the leading group of the State Council on state owned enterprise reform, stressing the key and difficult points and accelerating the ten reform experiments, allowing trial and error and tolerance failure.

According to "finance and economics", the State Council held a televised meeting in April 14th, which will initiate nationwide special rectification in the Internet financial field. P2P is the key point, which is related to the recent breach of contract.

The Ministry of land and resources will strictly control the land for new production capacity, support the revitalizing of land assets, and implement the support policy for mineral resources, so as to help resolve the excess capacity of the iron and steel industry.