Financial Statistics Predict China'S Economic Task State Policy

Recently, the central bank released the 1 quarter financial statistics in 2016, which showed that the scale of social financing increased by 6 trillion and 590 billion yuan, RMB loans increased by 4 trillion and 610 billion yuan, RMB loans increased by 4 trillion and 670 billion yuan, and two data reached a record high.

From the perspective of money supply, the growth rate of M1 was 22.1% year-on-year at the end of 3, up 4.7 percentage points from the end of last month, and the M2 of broad money grew by 13.4% over the same period last year.

We should see that the five major tasks of the Chinese economy can achieve a good start. As the hub of the modern economic core and the allocation of resources, the financial industry does play an important role and plays a positive role.

At the end of 2015, the central economic work conference pointed out that 2016 is the key year to push forward the structural reform of supply side. It has identified five major economic tasks, such as capacity production, inventory elimination, deleveraging, cost reduction and compensation, and the five major tasks are the main line and action guide for economic and financial work in 2016, which determines the direction and key points of various policies.

The main economic indicators announced in the first quarter, such as CDP growth rate, were 6.7%, CPI increased by 2.3% compared to the previous year, PPI rose 0.5%, down 4.3% compared with the same period last year, but the decline narrowed. Exports improved in March, the first increase in 9 months. The decline in imports continued to narrow after the contraction last month. In March, the export volume of China increased by 18.7% compared with that of the previous month. In March, imports fell 1.7%, down sharply compared with that of 2 months.

All this shows that China's economy is showing signs of stabilizing and warming. It also reflects the increasing financial support for the real economy. It shows that the five key tasks of structural reform on the supply side are running well and with obvious results.

Although the financial industry supports the five major tasks of the Chinese economy, it has achieved initial results, but this is only a good start. It does not necessarily mean that all the difficulties of the five tasks have been solved and all obstacles have been eliminated.

Because as time goes on, there are still more financial support problems to be solved in the five major economic tasks, and more financial resources will need to be invested. In particular, we need to deal with the problems of financial support and risk prevention, and grasp the supporting scale. The financial sector must make presupposed problems that can arise or happen as far as possible in advance, and leave enough room for making financial support policies. We should conscientiously carry out investigation and study, brainstorm ideas, make financial support schemes more realistic, and develop more financial services and financial services products suitable for five major tasks, without leaving any "gap" to play a role in fully supporting the five major tasks.

First, the scale of social financing is enlarged.

Support for supply side reform plays an important role.

According to Sheng Songcheng, director of the central bank's investigation and Statistics Division, the rapid growth of credit and social financing increased in the first quarter, while the structure also showed positive changes, which fully reflected the intention of going to capacity, short board and the real estate market to inventory policy.

The production capacity ranks five among the top two tasks. The State Council has also released the opinions of two industries in iron and steel and coal to resolve excess capacity and achieve the development of difficulties. The focus has been on breakthroughs in these two industries and has decided to set up a special bonus fund for structural adjustment of industrial enterprises to solve the problem of surplus capacity and disposal of workers in the process of "zombie enterprises".

According to relevant statistics, China's crude steel output in the first quarter dropped by 3.2%, and the output of raw coal dropped by 5.3%. This is an important achievement after increasing the capacity of production.

At the end of the first quarter of this year, the balance of overcapacity in medium and long term industries decreased by 0.2% compared with the same period last year.

For the first time, negative growth occurred.

Among them, the balance of the medium and long-term loans in the steel industry dropped 7.5% compared to the same period last year, and the balance of the medium and long-term loans in the building materials industry decreased by 10% compared with the same period last year, which shows that the financial industry plays an important role in the process of capacity development.

Secondly, the real estate inventory has achieved some success, and the 1 quarter of the 70 major cities nationwide housing prices generally rose, the property market.

Activity increased.

If the real estate market fails to make substantial progress, it will lead to huge risks, dragging down the bank and China's economy.

And because the central and local governments have strong policies and measures, the real estate "hard landing" risks are basically lined up.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the area of commercial housing sales increased by 30% in the first quarter, and the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 4 million 150 thousand square meters at the end of 3. Compared to the end of 2, the number of real estate development loans and personal mortgage loans increased faster than that at the end of 2.

The analysis indicates that the growth rate of personal mortgage loans has continued to rise since last May, which has promoted the sales rebound in the real estate market, and fully shows that the real estate market is accelerating the pace of inventory.

Thirdly, the high leverage ratio of government and enterprises has been reduced.

At present, the high leverage ratio of Chinese government and enterprises has become prominent in various economies. The problem of high leverage will not be solved. It will not only endanger the safety of government debt and the normal turnover of enterprise capital, but also bring disaster to the steady development of China's economy.

At present, bank credit is mainly invested in infrastructure and government related investment projects. Although government leverage has increased, the government has high quality assets and stable cash flow return, and the risk will not be very high.

According to the data released by China Association of industrial enterprises, the asset liability ratio of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size dropped by 0.1 percentage points over the end of 2, indicating that enterprises

There has been a decrease.

Fourth, the interest rate of social capital has declined, and the overall financing cost of enterprises has been reduced.

At present, due to poor channels, high financing costs remain the main pressure of business operation. In the implementation of the central bank's continuous lowering of interest rates, the market liquidity is slightly loose and the difficulty of corporate financing is reduced.

According to the central bank monitoring and evaluation results, in the first quarter of 2016, corporate financing costs continued to decline.

As of March, the cost of financing for enterprises was 4.55%, down 76 basis points from the end of 2015, down 228 basis points compared with the first quarter of last year. In March, the corporate lending rate was 4.90%, a 8 basis points lower than the end of last year, a decrease of 142 basis points compared with the same period last year.

From the point of view of tax reduction, the intensity of policy is relatively large. From 1 to February, the cost per 100 yuan main business income dropped by around 0.42 yuan over the previous year.

Fifth, the progress of financial support for short board is outstanding.

Because China's economy is not only unbalanced in the regional development, but also has many shortcomings in the industrial development. All these seriously restrict the balanced and coordinated development of China's economy in the region, and it has also dragged China's economic progress on the whole.

At present, this situation has changed, and comprehensive related information, loans in the central and western regions, loans for development of affordable housing and small and micro enterprises and farmers and other key areas and weak links have shown a relatively rapid growth.

For example, the balance of development loans for affordable housing increased by 45.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 32.4 percentage points higher than that of the real estate development loan.