Last Week, The Market Broke Through The Gem Again, Pointing To 2300.

As the market gets better, the market sentiment improves as a whole, and the optimist sees 3600 points.

In April 15th, we sent out a questionnaire for future market judgement, and recovered 983 copies. 65% thought that the rebound would continue. The weighted average value of the Shanghai Composite Index's height in the next three months was 3350 points, and the gem index was 2600.

Looking back over the past 2 and a half months, at the end of January, at the end of -2, we were alone in sticking to the 2600-2700 point, which was the judgment of the bottom area. The 3-4 month was the best window period in the first half of the year.

To this day, the more important question is how high and when to sell?

We have been comparing the quotations from the end of January to the market after the end of August, the end of January, the beginning of -3, the end of August =15 - the national day, and the 3-4 month =15 10-11, 15.

During the two sessions, the market hesitated and even worried about the fall of the position after the meeting. We clearly pointed out that "a big probability of a breakthrough in the market has started" and "please cherish the rare eating quotes".

The biggest logic of our optimism is that the policy is warm. The drop in February 29th is a very important signal. It not only represents the partial loosening of China's monetary policy, but also occurs on Monday after the G20 meeting, which suggests that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in 3 months.

In addition, during the two sessions, the regulatory authorities on the registration system, the battle board and other positions, all released the policy warm air.

In March 17th, the Fed meeting finally did not raise interest rates and the future.

The number of times is expected to drop to 2 times, and the market is going up and breaking up. In April 11th, China's CPI in March was only 2.3%, which was significantly lower than expected. The market once again rose, indicating that the trend of policy is the core variable affecting the market.

At the same time, the economic data released in April 15th were beautiful, but in fact, the market fell slightly on that day.

Tracking policy changes: April 27th

Interest conference is an important time point.

The Federal Reserve interest conference will be held on 26-27 April.

Since the second half of 15 years, the Fed raised interest rates and triggered the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, thus affecting the risk premium of A shares.

Using PE to reduce the yield of ten - year treasury bonds can reflect the change of market risk premium.

The two data have strong correlation.

In April, the Federal Reserve meeting will discuss the possibility of raising interest rates in June. At present, the market agrees that the probability of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve is lower than 13.3%, but precisely because of this, if the meeting appears to be hawkish, marginal changes will have a greater impact on the market.

Indicators to assess whether the Fed raises interest rates include labor market, inflation pressure, inflation expectations, and data in financial markets and international markets. In December, the US core CPI broke 2% for the first time in nearly two years and the unemployment rate was 5%.

The rebound began in late August at the end of 15. In late November, the market stagnation rose as the US raised interest rates in December, and eventually fell again after the US interest rate hike.

In March, when the Federal Reserve Conference on interest rates was worried about the risks of global economic and financial development, and energy prices fell, it would not raise interest rates temporarily.

At present, the unemployment rate in the United States has been maintained at 5% and below, and the data of non-agricultural employment have continued to perform strongly. The core CPI has been maintained at over 2%, and the international market is relatively stable. The emerging market economy led by China has stabilized signs, and crude oil prices have stabilized gradually. We need to guard against the hawkish speech released in April 27th.

Tracking changes in emotional indicators: the temperature has picked up half.

In addition to policy moves outward, the deduction of market needs to track changes in emotional indicators.

The change of market sentiment, like the temperature of the whole year, has ups and downs, but there is always a degree, for example, the winter low in Shanghai is about 5 degrees below zero, and the summer high is about 37 degrees.

We analy the market after the end of 15, and analyze the changes of market sentiment from the angles of turnover volume, turnover rate, financing paction ratio and fund positions, etc. in the end of August.

Overall judgment, the mood has recovered from the low point already half, similar to the 15-20 degree from 5 degrees below zero in winter, not too high, but it is important to note that this time may not be able to last as much as 35 degrees above, just like the ball landing every time the rebound height will drop.

The low volume of the last round of market volume was 29 billion 500 million shares in 15 September 30th, up to 232% in November 5th, and 25 billion 400 million in the March 11th. The average value in the latest week was 46 billion 800 million shares, or 82%, in November 5th.

The low turnover rate in the previous round was 257% in September 30th. The high point was 588% in November 11th, or 129%. The low turnover rate in the current round was 207% in February 15th, and the average in recent weeks was 313%, or 51%.

The low point of the last round of market financing pactions was 9% in August 25th, the highest point was 14.2% in November 9th, or 57.8%, the low point of the current round of financing pactions was 7.1% in February 29th, and the average in recent weeks was 9.4%, or 31.5%.

In the last round, the high position of pure equity fund was 91%, which is currently 87.34%.