Jiang Chao: A Shares Also Hit A New High, But The Bond Market Has A Sharp Correction.

Global stock markets rebound.

In March, China's economy improved and inflation was mild. Last week, global stock markets rose, oil and industrial metals prices rebounded, while gold prices remained stable.

Short term economic improvement.

In the 1 quarter, China's GDP fell to a low of 6.7%, but in the 16 years, the economy was low and high. The industrial growth rate in the first two months was only 5.4%. In March, industrial growth rose sharply to 6.8%.

From the perspective of demand, the growth rate of exports, investment and consumption in March was significantly higher than that in the previous two months. We forecast that GDP growth in the 2 quarter is expected to continue to rise to 6.8%.

Inflation is hard to drop in the short term.

March

In the 2.3% quarter and the 1 quarter, CPI rose to 2.1%, much higher than 1.5% in the 4 quarter of last year. The main reason was that the currency exceeded the growth rate and the 13.4% growth rate was far beyond the GDP growth rate of 6.7%.

Since April, vegetable prices have dropped, but inflation is still hard to fall in April. A pork price is still rising. Two, the weight of food has declined, and the impact of food price decline on CPI has declined. Three industrial goods and housing prices have risen, pushing up CPI * non food prices.

Investment has rebounded markedly.

In the 1 quarter, investment growth rebounded significantly, including manufacturing.

Continue to fall, but real estate and infrastructure investment rebounded significantly.

Especially in March, the real estate sales volume and new construction growth rate all reached a new high. In addition, the March fiscal expenditure significantly increased, indicating that the real estate and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to pick up, which is the main driving force for short-term economic improvement.

Money financing has gone up.

Social harmony in March

Once again over the increase, including social and financial year over year, the chain increased by over trillion, while the M2 growth rate rose to 13.4%.

In the process of social integration, all kinds of financing have been fully blooming, especially corporate bond financing has increased by 560 billion over the same period last year.

In the credit, residents added 440 billion of the medium and long-term loans, reflecting the good sale of real estate.

Financial data reflect that real estate and infrastructure are the main causes of over financing, while the rebound in real estate and infrastructure investment is the main cause of economic improvement, which shows that the current economic improvement is driven by huge money.

Policy returns to stability.

Last week, monetary interest rates rose slightly, indicating that monetary policy or a return to stability were mainly due to three reasons: first, the short-term improvement in the economy and the weakening of the driving force; two, inflation continued to rise; three, the rise in the risk of excessive currency and long-term debt.

We predict that the probability of reducing interest rates will drop in the future, and the policy will be directed loosely.

Peace is still in need of danger.

In the 09 quarter of the 1 quarter, new loans increased by 4 trillion and 600 billion, and new social inclusion increased by 4 trillion and 700 billion. In the 1 quarter of 16, new loans were unchanged from 09 years, but the new social inclusion reached 6 trillion and 500 billion.

The result of the 09 year stimulus is 1 years of economic growth, but inflation has been rising for nearly 3 years.

We believe that under the background of excess capacity, it is difficult for the current round of economic recovery to exceed half a year, and the trend of inflation is more clear. Although the short-term economic improvement and moderate inflation honeymoon period, we need to guard against the risk of stagflation in the second half of the year.