Global Trade Growth Needs Policy Making Way

According to the latest forecast issued by the world trade organization, the growth rate of Global trade in 2016 will remain unchanged from 2.8% in 2015.

This will be the fifth consecutive year of Global trade growth below 3.3%, and the worst performance since 1980s.

According to the WTO estimates, the full implementation of the agreement can save an average trade cost of 14% for its members, and will create 20 million jobs for the period from 2015 to 2030, and this figure may increase to 30 million based on different industries and labor-intensive industries.

At the same time, the agreement will drive global export growth 2.7% and GDP growth by 0.5% every year.

As Azevedo, director general of WTO, said, "WTO members have the ability to reverse this situation.

We can take many measures to increase economic growth, create employment opportunities and promote development through trade. "

In recent years,

The abnormal pattern of "sustained slow growth" is only an example of the traditional economic and trade relations that have been tested since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008.

In most of the past 30 years, Global trade growth has at least two times the growth rate of global gross domestic product (GDP), with the rise of trade giants such as China and the accelerated decline in freight costs due to the acceleration of globalization.

However, with the impact of the international financial crisis on the world economy, Global trade collapsed in 2009.

Despite a rebound in 2010, Global trade has been growing slowly since then.

Due to the overoptimism of the global economic recovery, WTO's expectations for Global trade growth over the past 5 years are often higher than the actual level.

Although global trade is still maintaining positive growth, its growth rate is very slow.

WTO therefore continuously revised Global trade growth expectations.

This forecast is the first time that the WTO has not made the anticipation of the global trade rebound.

In fact, in recent 5 years, the growth rate of Global trade has been basically the same as the growth rate of the weak global GDP.

WTO forecast that the global economy is still facing downward pressure. In 2016, GDP growth in the world was 2.4% and 2.7% in 2017.

If the trade volume denominated in US dollars depends on exchange rate movements and commodities.

The decline in Global trade has even seen a downward trend.

The latest WTO statistics show that in 2015 the total volume of Global trade (at the current US dollar exchange rate) fell by 13%, from 19 trillion US dollars in 2014 to 16 trillion and 500 billion US dollars.

The growth of Global trade is so unsustainable. First, a series of economic and financial crises have led to the collapse of trade demand in different regions of the world.

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,

The main emerging economies play an important role in supporting global trade.

But with the slowdown of emerging economies in 2015, the uncertainty of demand in the global trade market has increased significantly.

Two, turbulence in international financial markets, sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, and falling prices of oil and other commodities also affect trade market demand.

Instability in the financial markets, uncertainty in the direction of US monetary policy in the future, and recent complex economic data have led to stagnation in demand growth.

Three, the revival of Global trade is also affected by the "creeping protectionism" to a certain extent, and new trade barriers are being set up, which has cast a shadow over the world economy and trade situation.

To get rid of the current downturn in Global trade growth, the fundamental way out for all WTO parties is to reduce trade costs and boost global trade by eliminating trade restrictions, especially by approving and implementing the trade facilitation agreement as soon as possible.

The trade facilitation agreement is the first global trade promotion agreement formally established after the WTO was founded, and also a major breakthrough since the start of the Doha Round negotiations.

Through the standardization and simplification of customs procedures around the world, the agreement helps to facilitate trade and reduce paction costs.