Stock Market Trend Or Slow Bear Market Is A Bit Awkward.

The traditional industry has already been "dying". If the boom deteriorates for some time, it will be possible to see the real "capacity to go".

But now, with the improvement of the economy and overcapacity, the enterprises are "living", so they begin to "walk the old road". This year, we should vigorously carry out the system reform in the traditional industries.

It will be very difficult.

The total annual income growth rate of A shares is -2.5%, and the growth rate of quarterly earnings of 2016 is up to 2.5%. The total profit growth rate of A shares is 2015 in the year of 2015, and the growth rate of 2015 quarterly earnings has risen slightly to 2015.

After the elimination of finance, the upward trend of income and earnings is more obvious: A shares excluding the 2015 annual revenue growth of the financial sector is -6%, 2016 quarterly earnings growth has increased to 0.6%, while the A share excluding the 2015 annual profit growth of the financial sector is -17%, and 2016 quarterly profit growth rebounded sharply to 2.7% (excluding non recurring gains and losses).

The 2015 annual report and 2016 quarterly earnings growth were -24.7% and 8.7% respectively.

The profit margin trend is obviously better than the seasonality: the overall first quarter profit of A shares is up 36.3% over the fourth quarter of last year, and the profit growth rate of the first quarter after excluding the financial sector is also 18.4%, which is obviously better than the 2011-2015 year seasonality and the same as the economic rebound in the first quarter of 2010.

The first quarter of 2016 may be China's entry.

"The starting point of the second round profit recovery cycle after the model.

From the historical data, A share's round profit cycle generally has to go through three to three and a half years, and the profit of a quarterly report in 2016 has greatly improved. It may declare that A shares have entered a new round of profit cycle (Figure 6).

However, as China's economy has stepped into the "stock economy" mode from the "incremental economy" mode, the fluctuation of profit has narrowed considerably since the last round of profit cycle. We expect that the new profit cycle will also fluctuate in a narrow range.

Under the comprehensive impact of the "steady growth" policy and the recovery of the real estate industry chain, it is estimated that the profit growth rate of A shares will be picked up in the first three quarters of this year.

After the A shares are eliminated from the financial sector, the main contribution of their profits is utilities, buildings, real estate, automobiles and the cyclical industries in the middle reaches.

Since the beginning of this year, the policy of "steady growth" has been steadily increasing, and the real estate industry chain has begun to recover, which is just pulling the industries. Therefore, it is estimated that the profit growth rate of A shares will continue to improve, and the duration of improvement will last at least until the three quarter of this year.

Drawing on the experience of the last round of profit cycle, it was also accompanied by the revival of the real estate industry chain, and the path of recovery of the real estate industry chain was from real estate sales to real estate new construction. When the real estate sales reached a peak, the real estate construction would generally lag behind for half a year.

The current round of real estate cycle is still in the stage of improvement in real estate sales and real estate new construction. Assuming that the real estate sales growth starts to peak in April this year, the real estate starts at least back to around October, so that the real estate investment related sectors can continue to improve in the first three quarters of this year.