The Stock Market Is A Barometer Of The National Economy. Where Does The L Stock Market Go?
In the case of economic L, A shares are unlikely to go U and V, and the possibility of taking L is even greater.
Of course, this type of L is not a straight line, but a bottom interval.
In the three years from September 2011 to October 2014, the Shanghai Composite Index has been operating at the interval of 2000 ~2500.
The stock market is a barometer of the national economy. Although the barometer often fails, at least on the contrary, economic development plays a positive role in supporting the stock market.
Economic development is conducive to the upward development of the stock market. Without the support of economic development, the development of the stock market at least lacks a driving force for upward development.
Therefore, in the face of the economic L type, the question of "how to take A shares" naturally attracts people's attention and even affects the hearts of investors.
Thus, some market participants and commentators expressed their views on this issue.
From the perspective of the current market, some views are very optimistic. For example, there is a view that "L type economy" is entrusted with the "V type stock market". A shares are three years and ten thousand points are not dreams.
Of course, some of the views are more prudent, that in the future economic trend L type, the stock market will fight a protracted war, there will not be a big rise in the market.
As an investor, of course, it is hoped that the stock market will develop upward.
So, in the case of economic operation L, can the stock market develop upward? This possibility exists.
Although the stock market is a barometer of the national economy, this barometer is often out of order, and the stock market lacks a sensitivity to the barometer of the national economy.
The most obvious point is that
China's economy
In the ten years of the development of gold, the A share market has shown "zero up", rising zero or even negative.
This means that the development of stock market and the rhythm of economic operation can be out of sync.
From the perspective of barometer, economic L operation does not mean that the economy does not develop, but the development rate is L type, for example, the growth rate of 6.5%~7%'s economic development.
In fact, the annual economic growth rate is maintained at over 6.5%, which is not a low rate of development.
After the expansion of economic development base, the further slowdown of growth rate is normal, as the growth rate of some major countries in the US and Europe is basically a zero growth or low growth state.
From China's economy, the growth rate of 6.5% is still a fast developing speed in the world economy.
In the development of this L type economy, the stock market is surely justified to develop upward and achieve a certain rate of growth every year.
If the stock market also maintains the L development, this means that the stock market development is "zero growth", which in fact is not commensurate with the development of economic L type.
Moreover, worldwide, there is no lack of economic L operation and the uptrend of stock market trend.
Such a typical American stock market is a typical example.
For the US economy, the 30 years from 1985 to 2015 are L.
Data show that in 1984, the US nominal GDP growth rate was 11.1%.
From 1985 to 2005, the nominal GDP growth rate in the US was 5.78%.
From 2006 to 2015, the nominal GDP growth rate in the US was 3.23%.
That is to say, from 1985 -2015, the US economy experienced two L models.
However, the US stock market did not stop the pace of upward development. In the 30 year of the US L economy, the stock market has increased 13 times. From 1985 to 2015, the Jones index of the US stock market has risen for 24 years, and has only fallen for 7 years. The index has climbed from 1211.56 point to 17425.03 points, or 1338.23%.
It is based on the trend of the US stock market that the development of the stock market is entirely possible under the circumstances of the L economy.
However, the development of A share market is difficult under the condition of economic L operation.
After all, the A share market is different from the US stock market.
A share market
It is a very immature market, or even a money market.
Enterprises not only earn money through IPO, but also make more money after listing, and the amount of refinancing of listed companies is far more than that of IPO.
Not only that, there is a continuous stream of cash in size and non size, and illegal activities are frequent for the sake of size and non cash flow.
And all kinds of illegal and criminal acts can not get much weight in the A share market, including fraudulent listing and fraudulent practices are all profitable things. Investors' legitimate rights and interests can not be effectively protected.
Therefore, the market environment of A shares is not the same as that of the US stock market, and it is difficult for the A share market to get out of the L type of the US stock market.
equity market
Take the trend of Niu Manniu.
Unless the revised Securities Law can fundamentally change the above problems in China's stock market.
And from the perspective of cultivating leeks, the A share market is also hard to get out of the bull market in the last one or two years.
Because after the last round of mad cow and stock market crash in 2015, the A share market has just completed a round of cutting of leek.
At present, investors are mostly high or heavy, and the market is badly hurt.
Under such circumstances, it is necessary to heal the trauma of the original investors and digest the high level of holding up the market. The market needs to be repeated several times before it can be completed.
The cultivation of new strength in the market, including the cultivation of new leeks, will take a long time.
This is not done in one or two years.
Therefore, in the case of economic L, A shares are unlikely to take the U and V models, and the possibility of taking L will be greater.
Of course, this type of L is not a straight line, but a bottom interval.
In the three years from September 2011 to October 2014, the Shanghai Composite Index has been operating at the interval of 2000 ~2500.
Therefore, in the next two or three years, it is completely possible to maintain A shares again in a bottom interval.
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