The Stock Market Is A Barometer Of The National Economy Where Does The Stock Market Go Under The L-Type Economy

In the case of economic L-type, A-shares are less likely to follow U-type and V-type, but more likely to follow L-type. Of course, this L-shape is not a straight line, but a bottom interval. For example, during the three years from September 2011 to October 2014, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has been operating between 2000 and 2500 points. The stock market is a barometer of the national economy. Although this barometer often fails, at least in reverse, economic development has a positive role in supporting the stock market.

Economic development is conducive to promoting the upward development of the stock market. Without economic development as a support, the development of the stock market is at least lacking a driving force for upward development. Therefore, in the face of the L-shaped view of the economy, the question of "how to get A shares" naturally attracts people's attention, and even affects the hearts of investors.

As a result, some market participants and commentators have expressed their views on this issue. However, from the point of view published in the current market, some views are very optimistic. For example, there is a view that "L-shaped economy" drives out "V-shaped stock market". A share is not a dream for more than ten thousand points in three years, and my heart is also full of enthusiasm. Of course, some people are more cautious. They believe that the stock market will fight a long war in the case of L-shaped economic trend in the future, and there will be no large-scale rising market. As investors, of course, they all hope that the stock market can develop upward.

Then, under the condition of L-shaped economic operation, can the stock market develop upward? This possibility exists. Although the stock market is a barometer of the national economy, this barometer often fails, and the stock market is not sensitive to the role of the barometer of the national economy. The most obvious point is that China's economy In the ten years of gold development, the A-share market has shown a "zero increase", with a zero rise, or even a negative number. This means that the pace of the development of the stock market and the economic operation can not be synchronized.

From the perspective of a barometer, the L-shaped operation of the economy does not mean that the economy has not developed, but that the development range is L-shaped, for example, the economic growth rate is 6.5%~7%. In fact, the annual economic growth rate has remained above 6.5%, which is not a low growth rate. After the base of economic development becomes larger, it is normal for this growth rate to slow down further. For example, the economic growth of some major countries in the United States and Europe basically shows a zero growth or low growth state.

In terms of China's economy, the 6.5% growth rate is still a very fast development rate in the world economy. In the case of this L-shaped economic development, the stock market certainly has a reason to develop upward and achieve a certain growth rate every year. If the stock market also maintains an L-shaped development, this means that the stock market development is "zero growth", which is actually not commensurate with the L-shaped development of the economy.

Moreover, worldwide, there is no lack of L-shaped operation of economy and upward development of stock market. For example, the American stock market that investors are familiar with is such a typical case. As far as the US economy is concerned, the 30 years from 1985 to 2015 were all L-shaped. Data shows that in 1984, the nominal GDP growth rate of the United States was 11.1%. From 1985 to 2005, the average nominal GDP growth rate of the United States was 5.78%. From 2006 to 2015, the average nominal GDP growth rate of the United States was 3.23%. In other words, from 1985 to 2015, the U.S. economy experienced two L-shaped episodes.

However, the U.S. stock market did not stop its upward development. In the 30 years of the L-shaped U.S. economy, the stock market rose 13 times! From 1985 to 2015, the Dow Jones index in the U.S. stock market rose for 24 years, and fell for only 7 years 1211.56 points climbed to 17425.03 points, up 1338.23%. It is precisely based on the trend of the US stock market that it is entirely possible for the stock market to develop upwards under the L-shaped economy.

However, it is difficult for A-share market to develop upward under the condition of L-shaped economic operation. After all, the A-share market is different from the U.S. stock market, A-share market It is a very immature market, even just a money market. Enterprises not only use IPO to make money, but also make more money after listing. The amount of refinancing of listed companies far exceeds the amount of IPO. Not only that, there is a steady flow of cash out of large and small non cash out, and for the purpose of cash out of large and small non cash out, all kinds of illegal things happen frequently.

In addition, various illegal and criminal acts can not be dealt with seriously in the A-share market, including fraudulent listing and fraud, which are profitable, and the legitimate rights and interests of investors can not be effectively protected. Therefore, the market environment of A-share is different from that of the US stock market, and it is difficult for A-share market to go beyond the economic L-type of the US stock market equity market The trend is long and slow. Unless the Securities Law being revised can fundamentally change the above problems in China's stock market.

And from the perspective of cultivating chives, it is difficult for the A-share market to get out of the bull market in the last year or two. Because after the last round of mad cow and the stock crash in 2015, the A-share market has just completed a round of leek cutting. At present, most investors are high or suffer heavy losses, and the vitality of the market is severely damaged. In this case, to heal the wounds of the original investors and digest the high position of the firm, the market needs many iterations to complete. The cultivation of new market forces, including the cultivation of new chives, also needs a long time. This will not be completed in a year or two.

Therefore, in the case of economic L-type, A-shares are less likely to follow the U-type and V-type, but more likely to follow the L-type. Of course, this L-shape is not a straight line, but a bottom interval. For example, during the three years from September 2011 to October 2014, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has been operating between 2000 and 2500 points. Therefore, in the next two or three years, it is entirely possible for A-shares to maintain operation at a bottom range again.