Investor Sentiment Has Reached A Level Of Extreme Pessimism.

China's stock market has been consolidation in recent times, taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example. Since May 9th, the volume of the stock market has plummeted, and it has contracted 12 trading days in a narrow space, of which half of the trading volume is only one hundred billion yuan, compared with last year's peak period of 12000 billion yuan, only about 10% of the level. From the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it is less than half of the Shenzhen stock market, which is only equivalent to the turnover of small and medium-sized plates. The two cities are often lower than the 400 billion yuan level, and today only 370 billion yuan, how to interpret the paction level of this volume.

Li Daxiao, chief economist of the British Securities Corporation, said before the visit to CCTV that the volume was small.

And this has reached a low level at 2638 o'clock.

I have observed that investor sentiment has reached a level of extreme pessimism.

This is a signal that the market bottoms out.

Therefore, the market without volume is a market similar to zombies, and it is lack of vitality. Although there is not much panic, it is also very lacking in passion. Anyway, there are many adjectives to judge such a market. Death, zombie, lukewarm and grind people are very appropriate.

Contrary to the past, the volume of pactions shows that investors are very reluctant to vote. The original words of Comrade Li Daxiao are the most pessimistic and unwilling to enter the market. Of course, they are unwilling to catch up. This is very unfavorable for the future market. The Chinese stock market has a saying that the volume is in the first place, and there is no price. The stock market can deceive people, but the volume can not be deceived, because the stock market is a very real market. Only when there is continuous buying intervention, can the stock price continue to rise. Once the buying is bad, the stock price will fall back naturally.

Especially in China, such a capital raising stock market, there is not a large amount of capital to enter the stock market to promote the stock market to rise. The stock market has become a passive source of water, and the reverse is just wishful thinking. Finding the bottom is a difficult process, so there is a shrinking horizon, a baby bottom, a baby's two bottom and a few diapers.

First of all, China's stock market is a stock market with a strong flock effect. What we all value is the trend market. Ordinary investors do not enter the market when the market is in a doldrums. They will wait until the market has obvious money making effect. They will not be tempted to enter the market, and the market power of the institutional strength will be weak. At present, it is also gradually becoming scattered. The market has a saying that every bull market is bought at the top of the fund. Every bear market is the bottom of the stock market. This is a good thing. In the first half of 15 years, the high position of the super bull stock has the shadow of the fund buying high.

Therefore, the market is always going to go up and down, the bottom of the decline is hard to judge by valuation, and it is difficult to judge by the decline. The market grinding process is often very long and very difficult. It needs a strong external stimulus to stimulate the stock market to go first, and the money effect will appear. The trend of the trend will emerge. The funds will be continuously coming from outside the field. The fund will intensify its operation and the paction will be enlarged gradually, and the stock market will become stronger.

This external factor is a strong policy push by the management, but this policy generally requires the stock market to fall to a limit, endangering the smooth running of financing and endangering financial safety. At present, the stock market remains at the 2800 line, and all kinds of crises are almost impossible. Therefore, despite the frequent release of positive benefits, management is ultimately limited, and the market does not buy it, it can not activate investors' willingness to enter the market, nor can it change the current situation of low turnover.

The optimistic conclusion is that selling is already light, which is the bottom feature. But in turn, it shows that the market vitality is seriously missing, and the stock index has gone up lacklustre. What is more serious is in a depressed market.

Too much exchange rate and strong speculative atmosphere may not be conducive to stable operation of the market. However, the sluggish turnover has also hurt the market. It is a continuation of the slow cutting of meat and is a continuation of the decline. Taking a certain stimulus policy to boost investor confidence and increase market activity is a problem that management should think about.

　　本輪走勢自從高位調(diào)整以來，經(jīng)過數(shù)輪暴跌，投資者屢屢抄底屢屢被套，直到最后一點信心也被消磨殆盡，現(xiàn)在是心灰意冷，根本沒有激情做股票，場外投資者退避三舍，去炒房炒期貨，場內(nèi)投資者開始逐漸離場，撤走資金炒房炒期貨，或者干脆靜觀其變，前段時間螺紋鋼一個品種的交易量就超過當時滬深股市成交總和，按照現(xiàn)在水平，是滬深股市的1.5倍了，前段時間筆者寫過一篇文章就是資金繞著股市走，股市怎能不低迷，從中登公司數(shù)據(jù)看，持倉賬戶進一步縮減，也從另一個側面說明很多投資者開始空倉，交易賬戶減少，說明很多投資者已經(jīng)深套，沒有心情看盤，讓賬戶成為僵尸賬戶;每周新增投資者已經(jīng)一降再降，只有去年上半年的幾分之一，說明新增投資者出現(xiàn)銳減;而存量資金長期以來出現(xiàn)凈流出，存量資金逐漸萎縮，也導致成交難以為繼;兩融額度一

Now it is only 820 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 40% less than 2 trillion and 200 billion yuan at the high point. The most dynamic investors in the market are beginning to reduce operations. Besides, other people who follow the trend, how can the market have passion, how can it rise steadily, how can there be a bull market and how to reverse it?

This is a manifestation phenomenon, which causes funds to leave gradually and lose interest in the stock market.

Chinese stock market investors are not interested in performance, and they are not interested in valuations. We all pay more attention to themes and stories. The SFC has begun to intensify its enforcement efforts, halt the return of stocks, strictly enforce cross border mergers and acquisitions, reduce market opportunities for storytelling, and constantly increase market manipulation and reduce speculation space to a certain degree. Such measures are conducive to long-term stable and healthy development of the stock market. However, short-term market shocks can not be ignored. Speculators can not find the target of speculation and can only enter the wait and see, resulting in a sharp decline in market activity and a rapid loss of profit making effect.

Holding, that is really full of bitterness of endless tears, they rely on the low cost of shareholding, no matter what kind of price reduction can get huge profits, so long as the stock price rises, all kinds of original shareholders will dare to continue to reduce. Every round of bull market results are rich in all kinds of industrial capital, poor all kinds of two tier market investors, the entire market does not appear wealth appreciation, more wealth pfer, richer and poorer, poorer, in the bull market environment, investor sentiment is high, temporarily forget about the reduction behavior, but in the bear market environment, reduction has become a huge negative, so that the market does not have much money to face the continuous reduction of the plight, but also makes investors full of resentment, thereby reducing the operation. China's stock market talks about industrial capital and top management.

When it comes to the market bloodletting effect, there is nothing wrong with IPO, but in the bear market environment, the market has not been able to form a binding force to slow down the IPO. It is a bit unjustifiable to say that the blow of market funds to investor confidence is very objective. This week, the supply of new shares has increased, and there have been many super large cap stocks, and there are four listed companies. The most deadly part of China's stock market is that the supply of new shares is always in short supply. The supply of the new stock market is always in short supply. The supply of the new stock is always oversupply, which leads to the controversy over the issue of new shares, and the refinancing is fiercer than the tiger. The scale is far more than IPO, which makes the market full of doubts.

A market bloodletting effect does not weaken at all, and the stock capital is continuously reduced due to the withdrawal of investors. The situation is very embarrassing, and the shrinking of pactions is inevitable.

This is from the stock market itself, the impact of the stock market trend also has monetary policy, since the authoritative people accepted the people's daily interview, the monetary policy has obvious new signs, that is, the further shift to neutral direction, the increase of deleveraging, and the positive correlation between the stock market and monetary policy easing, and the injury of the market, resulting in a market crash that day. Since then, it has failed to recapture the lost territory, and the paction has also been decreasing. The stock market trend and the economic trend have always been the relationship between the puppy and the owner. Authorities have pointed out that the Chinese economy will be a long term L type, and the stock market may rise from the economic side when the mood is high, but in turn, there will be a clear adjustment and bottom finding process.

Time hawks occupy the mainstream, and the rate of interest rise in June has risen to around 33%, and the US dollar index has risen to about 96. It has risen to about 3%, and the depreciation of the RMB is expected to rise again. In May 19th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar dropped by more than 300 points, and the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.5693, which was lower than the previous trading day by 225 basis points, which set a new low in March 2011. The depreciation of RMB is not conducive to the RMB denominated assets. Naturally, it also includes stocks. In addition, the depreciation of the RMB will also lead to the aggravation of capital outflow, which is not conducive to further monetary easing of the central bank, or even tighten the monetary policy appropriately to prevent the RMB from depreciating too soon. In the 14 years of 15 years, Russia faced the rouble collapse and had to rise again and again, and the rate hike of three had led to the economy and the economy. China's stock market has gradually opened up to internationalisation, and the trend is inevitably affected by international factors. At the beginning of the new year, the stock exchange double kill is the best witness. Now, the trend of China's stock market is the erratic Federal Reserve pigeon hawk.

There are serious problems.

In addition to the news, there is another important factor that restricts the stock market in China. That is to say, the huge so-called national team has made the market startled. The fund raising company of the insurance company is now the representative of the national team, and they have bought a lot during the bailout market.

Although it is not very clear about its specific size at present, generally speaking, it is close to two thousand billion, which accounts for about 10% of the market value of free circulation. In the face of this super capital stock ownership, investors have to adjust their investment ideas and prevent the stock price from touching the reduction line. From this point of view, the national team "resident" has the expulsion effect on rational funds, because the market is always worried that the national team will sell after the stock index rises.

In fact, some media have questioned the national team's high throwing and low absorption, which is not conducive to the stable operation of the market.

Finally, it is said that the proportion of bank shares occupying 30% of the total market value of Shanghai Composite Index has a huge impact on the index. Banks face a low price earnings ratio and a high dividend yield, but the turnover is extremely low.

It is also very depressed, which is the main reason for the sluggish turnover in Shanghai market. The reason is that there is no solution to the problem of bad loans. A deep knowledge expert of the Agricultural Bank of China believes that the current bad rate of banks should not correctly reflect the fact that banks are really bad loans. IMF's latest report on financial stability report estimates that the banks that China may be at risk may turn to potential bank losses of about GDP 7%.

According to the CLSA Research Report, it is estimated that the non-performing loans in China's banking sector are between 6 trillion and 900 billion yuan and 9 trillion and 100 billion yuan, and Francis Cheung, head of CLSA's China region, said in Hongkong on Friday that the bad rate of China's banking industry may be between 15% and 19%, rather than 1.67% of official accounts.

CLSA said that China's potential non-performing loans could rise to 20% to 25% in the future, that is, the problem of bad loans of banks in the first quarter of the CBRC was also very grim. The Shanxi economic daily data showed that 10 banking regulatory authorities announced the first quarter banking data in their region, among which Guizhou, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong and other four provinces and Zhejiang Ningbo cities had an increase in non-performing loan ratio, among which three of the Shandong, Zhejiang and Ningbo banks had a bad rate of over 2%.

In addition, although the non-performing loan ratio of banks in Jilin is decreasing, it is still at a high level of 3.53%.

More than 2% bad loan cordon means that bank profitability can not cover risks.