Zhao Xiao: Where Is The Way Out For China'S Economy?

How to fight the good card of China's economy?

The only way to save China's economy is to shift from the "first rich" to the "common prosperity".

Solutions: first, take the road of new urbanization; the two is to increase the pfer payment; the three is to break the power and power.

After analyzing the data from this year, especially in March, I have made several preliminary observations on the current economic situation.

GDP growth in the first, first quarter was 6.7%, slightly lower than 7% in the same period last year, and 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2015, the lowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2009.

Second, the four quarter of this year's growth may be very stable, and China's economic growth will show no surprise.

Third, the policy stimulus has been unprecedentedly unprecedented. In 2015, the number of new loans increased by more than 2 billion yuan compared with 4 trillion hours in 2009. In January alone, the new loan reached 2 trillion and 500 billion, and the determination and speed of monetary release were breathtaking.

Fourth, the price of this round is sure to rise. Prices, vegetable prices and meat prices have to fly for a while. As prices rise faster than growth, the government should be vigilant against stagflation.

Fifth, the most dangerous time for China's economy may be over, that is to say

It will tend to be stable and rebound, and it will not be hard to land at the moment, or the risk is already behind.

Sixth,

Although it is now said that no interest rate increases, but from the data of the first quarter, the phenomenon of strong employment and rising prices is entirely possible to raise interest rates, but even raising interest rates will not necessarily cause a fatal blow to China, because the cycle of recovery of the US dollar index began in 2011. With the rise of 6 years of historical experience, the end of 2017 will come to an end. China 90% can escape the financial crisis, economic crisis caused by the US dollar storm and the fate of the developing countries being sheared wool.

Seventh, if the US dollar index rises cycle ends, by 2017 and 2018, the Chinese economy's dilemma will turn to a turning point.

Fortunately, let me tell you what to do next.

Here, I will be in the near future.

The speech at the learning meeting is sorted out for your reference.

How to reform the supply side reform?

Among the reforms, Hu Yaobang did the most important thing, that is, to rehabilitate a large number of injustice cases, thereby opening up the vitality of the workers on the supply side, so that everyone can suddenly have confidence and expectations for China's future.

At that time, Hu Yaobang put forward a clear-cut proposal: every wrong word, any incorrect conclusion and treatment, no matter when and under what circumstances, it must be corrected in a realistic way, no matter what level it is.

So how can we change the supply side reform today? We may as well learn the spirit of Hu Yaobang.

In my view, there are still many good cards in China.

But the next thing we need to do is to have more pragmatic wisdom.

I mentioned two points at the meeting.

The first point is that so far, all economists have reached a consensus that they should not argue again that China's economy is not "new normal" but "old morbid". The contradictions and problems accumulated since the reform and opening up have already been launched.

What is it? Just one point: supply exceeds demand and consumption is insufficient.

Why? Polarization between the rich and the poor and polarization.

Going stock is like pouring milk into the Pacific Ocean, but on the other hand, 300 million migrant workers and their families have not even satisfied their basic housing needs.

The only way to save China's economy is to shift from the "first rich" to the "common prosperity".

To solve this problem, one solution is to take the road of new urbanization, because the income gap between urban and rural areas accounts for half of the income gap in China. The two is to increase pfer payments; the three is to break up the power and wealth.