The Pressure And Uncertainties Of China'S Foreign Trade Increased In The Second Half Of This Year.

The pressure and uncertainties of China's foreign trade increased in the second half of this year.

Although the Federal Reserve has postponed raising interest rates, it may still be in the second half.

The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar may remain stable, thus appreciating against other currencies and increasing the downward pressure on exports.

The UK's withdrawal from Europe will have a certain impact on the world economy, making China's external demand face greater uncertainty in the second half of the year.

Analysts believe that under the above background, the improvement of resource countries' economy and the promotion of foreign direct investment may be an important supporting factor for China's exports in the second half of the year.

And the construction of free trade zones will also provide impetus for exports.

Export growth pressure

The industry expects that the export growth rate will continue to decline slightly in the coming months, and import growth may be repeated.

Xu Gao, chief economist, believes that in the next few months, the external demand is expected to remain stable in the absence of the Fed's rate hike expectations and the slowdown in external economic slowdown.

The effective exchange rate of RMB will remain stable. The stable exchange rate will promote the overall stability of exports, and export growth will continue to decline slightly in the coming months.

Liu Tao, senior researcher at the financial research center, said the three quarter export growth may face greater pressure.

The leading indicators are not optimistic.

In May, China's foreign trade export index was 33.1, down 0.7 from last month.

The prospects for recovery of major global economies remain uncertain, especially in recent years, when employment data in the United States are significantly lower than market expectations, and there is no fundamental improvement in our foreign demand environment.

Liu Tao said that the Ministry of Commerce's recent survey of 20 provinces and municipalities nationwide showed that the general situation of foreign trade is generally more complex and severe than that of last year, and the difficulties have intensified.

From last year's monthly export situation, exports in the 6-12 months of last year were basically maintained at 1895-2230 billion US dollars, and the higher base resulted in the difficulty of achieving positive growth in the three quarter of this year.

Regarding imports, Liu Tao said that the growth rate of imports in the three quarter may be repeated.

From the recent US core PCE price index, non-agricultural employment and so on, it is difficult to achieve the bottom line of raising interest rates set by the fed in the short term.

Affected by the US economy, the international commodity prices, including crude oil, may be phased back, and China's imports are likely to be lower than expected.

The quantity may fluctuate with the changes of domestic investment demand and stock space.

Xie Yaxuan, head of macroeconomic research, said imports continue to be constrained by demand in the second half of the year.

Domestic demand may remain weak in the second half of the year, but if commodity prices remain above current prices, they will help import growth over the same period.

As China imports more commodities and exports less, the stabilization and rebound of global commodity prices may make China's trade surplus smaller than last year.

The 2016 China economic outlook analysis released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that China's import decline may narrow this year, and the annual import growth rate is expected to drop by 5% to 7%.

European influence or pmission

The industry believes that the pressure on exports is increasing in the second half of the year.

On the one hand, the Fed may raise interest rates in the second half of the year, and the US dollar index will be more volatile.

In view of the prevention of financial risks, the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the second half of the year, resulting in the appreciation of the renminbi against other currencies and the downward pressure on exports.

On the other hand, the EU is China's largest trading partner. If Britain finally returns to Europe, it will bring greater uncertainty to China's foreign trade.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, the EU has become China's largest trading partner for eleventh consecutive years, and China has been the second largest trading partner of the EU for 12 consecutive years.

Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at the Ministry of asset management, said that if the British retreat to Europe led to a new round of EU recession or pessimism, its impact will be pmitted to China through trade and investment chains.

The EU is China's largest trading partner, and China's foreign trade has been particularly affected, thereby increasing the downward pressure on the economy.

Zhang Jianping, director of the International Cooperation Office of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said that due to the close correlation between China's economy and the global economy, the withdrawal of Europe led to a sharp decline in the pound and the euro exchange rate, and the global capital market was highly volatile. The economy of the UK and EU is facing recession, which will affect the demand for Chinese products in the UK and even in the European market.

In addition, the rise of trade protectionism this year has added resistance to China's exports.

Xie Yaxuan said that with the continued downturn of Global trade, the rise of trade protectionism in developed countries may suppress China's exports to developed countries.

Since the beginning of this year, Europe, the United States and Japan have launched anti-dumping duties on China's steel industry, which highlights the weakening of free trade concept and the apparent warming of trade protectionism under the background of global demand. China's exports to developed countries are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. The improvement of resource country's economy and the promotion of foreign direct investment may be an important supporting factor for China's exports in the second half of the year.

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Power and pressure coexist

Despite the pressure, there is still some momentum to support exports in the second half of the year.

Xie Yaxuan said exports had both resistance and motivation in the second half of the year.

"Along the way" is expected to become an important factor in supporting exports.

"One belt and one road" opens two avenues for China's exports. First, it expands domestic demand for investment and construction of border countries, and creates channel advantages for Chinese enterprises to provide the equipment, raw materials and products they need. Two, after the establishment of economic cooperation, the countries along the border have opened up space for China's future output of consumer goods and labor-intensive products.

From another point of view, Xie Yaxuan said, in recent years, China's non-financial direct investment in foreign countries has shown a leading and leading role in exports, and also confirms the "one belt and one road" drive to exports.

This year, China's foreign investment has increased significantly. In 1-5 months, foreign investment totaled 73 billion 520 million US dollars, up 61.9% from the same period last year. It is expected to boost exports in the second half of this year.

The leading role of the free trade zone in China's exports has also become increasingly evident.

Taking the China South Korea Free Trade Zone as an example, the signing and implementation of the FTA between China and South Korea has played a positive role in promoting bilateral trade and economic exchanges.

According to the Ministry of Commerce survey, 50% of the respondents said that after the agreement came into effect, the number of Korean exports increased or increased significantly, and 57% of the respondents reported that the number of consulted or order increased or increased substantially.

Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said recently that in the face of multiple adverse effects, the signing of the FTA between China and South Korea has led to a slight decline in bilateral trade scale since the beginning of this year. The Ministry of commerce is optimistic about the further growth of trade between China and South Korea in the second half of this year.

Chi Fulin, vice president of the Institute for reform and development of China (Hainan) and vice president of the China economic system reform institute, suggested that China should launch a new round of free trade zone construction and oppose trade protectionism on the basis of "along the way".

It is suggested that a multilateral, bilateral, regional and global free trade area be established along the "one belt and one road". It can also establish an energy economic circle with some central European countries and build a tourism economic circle with Asian and European countries.