Outside The Cotton Industry, Cotton Has Been "Fried".

Cotton is an important commodity and an industrial raw material for millions of households.

Recently, the price of cotton has been stir fried, causing widespread concern inside and outside the industry.

Data show that cotton futures in April 1st, CF1701 contract closing price of 10030, to July 1st, the CF1701 contract closing price of 15420, set the current round of the new high.

The price increase in other months is also close to this range.

In just 3 months, cotton futures prices have risen by nearly 50%.

The soaring price of futures has led to a sharp rise in spot prices. Cotton from outside the cotton industry has "fried" the cotton. This blowout has caught the downstream textile factories unprepared, and has seriously affected the normal production of downstream textile enterprises.

Cotton is a staple commodity.

Cotton prices are determined by the market, high prices and low prices, prices and prices are normal, but if there are no major emergencies such as earthquakes, terrorist attacks, and so on, it should be a normal slow down and slow down, rather than a sharp rise and fall in a short period of time. Occasional unexpected factors may temporarily derail the price, but will soon return to the original track, and production enterprises will be prepared for this.

Usually, in order to maintain normal production, cotton mills usually have raw material stocks for several months. After the Spring Festival of 2016, the expectation of "throwing the store in March" made the textile enterprises dispel the idea of purchasing large quantities of raw materials and wait for the boots to be thrown. However, when the time came to April, there was no exact news of throwing the store, and many textile enterprises began to worry.

Until May 3rd, the storage and storage began to come into operation. This time was more than a month later than the expected storage time.

It is more than a month's delay that the textile enterprises eager to "wait for the rice pot" can only be forced to buy high priced cotton from traders.

After May 3rd, the problems such as slow storage and warehousing, and "squeezing toothpaste out of storage" behavior made textile enterprises passively.

Speculators use the "godsend time difference" to push prices up again and again.

In addition, with the explosive development of the market in June, the promise of incremental dumping has not been fulfilled, and the reserves have been reduced to less than 20 thousand tons per day, artificially resulting in the shortage of cotton in the market. The bull market has been encouraged, and the price has continued to rise, resulting in a sharp market crash.

China has 11 million tons of cotton lying in the country's warehouse. Why is there a shortage of cotton in high storage? Under the general idea of "supply three side, one down and one subsidy", this abnormal phenomenon deserves attention and reflection.

In addition, since April 2016, "

"The timing, position and rhythm of the" bull trading "market are very precise.

For example, each increment (30 thousand tons) or reduction (20 thousand tons or lower) the day before, the futures market will be early response.

Speculators in the market are driven by the strength of capital, and the price of cotton futures is close to the daily limit several times.

Cotton futures prices soar in a short period of time also led to soaring spot prices, disrupting the normal production deployment of enterprises, resulting in the downstream cotton mills complain incessantly.

The policy of "collecting, storing, throwing and storing" implemented in our country is originally good and stable.

And strive for pricing power for cotton.

But the execution must not be out of shape.

At present, the relevant departments have enough chips and funds to control the market. "The national team" also has money in their hands. "We can get more water and more water than we can". We have a lot of moisture and humidity. We should keep pace with the cotton market.

This obviously abnormal market did not achieve the purpose of the original policy, but also moved towards the opposite of the expected result of the policy.

The original state reserve cotton is used for downstream textile enterprises, traders can not participate in shooting storage, but in 2016 allowed traders to participate in shooting storage, although this can alleviate some cotton mills.

However, the side effects are the large number of hoarding goods in the hands of traders. Some traders take pictures but do not pick up the goods.

The futures market serves the spot market, and normal fluctuations and moderate speculation are allowed. Moderate speculation is the lubricant of the market. But if the industry is too hyped out of the industrial base and the speculators take huge amounts of money and go wild and gamble, the futures market will become a gambling casino.

As far as China is concerned, there are about 1.7 billion employees in the industrial chain of "cotton yarn, textile, clothing, and retail".

At present, the textile and clothing industry is still an important means to create foreign exchange, solve the problem of employment and boost domestic demand. Cotton is the cornerstone of economic development and social stability to a certain extent.

Therefore, it is very important to build a stable, safe and efficient cotton management system.