PTA Market Pressure In The Second Half Of The Year

The first half of 2016

The stock market moved ahead, and the market rebounded again in June. During the first half of the year, PTA did not change substantially. Its prices mostly followed international crude oil and bulk commodities.

Change and change.

After the new year's day, because of the disillusionment of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the post conflict market, the price of crude oil has been falling and the lowest level has been refreshed in twelve years. As a result, the domestic PTA spot has dropped synchronously, and the lowest paction price in the month has fallen below the historical low point of 4100 yuan / ton price. In addition, as the Spring Festival draws near, the polyester operation rate of the lower reaches of the new year is declining, and the demand side is also a drag on it.

And before the Spring Festival, the demand is down, and worries continue to pressure oil prices. The doubts about the reduction of production have added to the PTA's downward trend. Besides, the industry has been delisting and low demand dominates the market. The focus of the PTA market is weak before the holiday.

After the festival, the OPEC production rumors again diffuse in the market, but then the hope of a reduction in production has led to the oversupply of the situation. However, the domestic PTA has a strong market focus in the cost support and the futures fund.

At the end of the first quarter, under the influence of peripheral macro policies, crude oil and capital side, the domestic PTA spot market trend was more twists and turns. At the same time, due to focusing on the oil exporting countries (OPEC) frozen production plan and China's accident reduction, it effectively stimulated market risk preference, PTA futures trading and spot trading rose sharply. Then, due to the sharp decline in import and export data, the market worried about the sustainability of China's crude oil demand, and the pressure of oil prices fell. In addition, the differences between the frozen production agreements and the high inventory prices also kept oil prices under pressure, which ended the pattern of domestic PTA market continued to rise.

In the two quarter, the Doha conference freeze-production agreement first saw the dawn, the international crude oil rose, a certain degree of PTA market, then the freeze-production agreement abortion, the oil price market slightly weakened, but at the same time the Kuwait factory strike made the oil price decline narrowed, the majority of the PTA market watched as the main, as the market gradually digested the Doha talks rupture, and this stage of commodity performance and continuous rise of cotton futures and other factors, the PTA market continued to strengthen consolidation.

Immediately after the continuous decline of crude oil production and the rising oil price, the raw material PTA futures were strengthened, and its spot market increased simultaneously. However, the polyester products were not strong enough. Due to the decline of domestic commodity futures, affected by the falling of the core value of the PTA spot market and the poor cost support, the polyester products fell along with the raw material market. With the continuous downturn of the commodity market, the overall PTA market maintained a weak trend.

At the end of the two quarter, the international crude oil closed up slightly, and at the same time, driven by the overall market atmosphere, the PTA price rebounded. On the other 3, the market G20 G20's list of industrial enterprises in the area was spread, and the market promoted the price of the PTA by speculation.

However, the downstream demand wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the overall turnover is not good. The PTA market is stable in the wake of the Dragon Boat Festival. The current market lacks solid support for the fundamentals. The overall wait-and-see mentality is strong. Then the crude oil continues to fall and the market mentality is pessimistic. But as a result of the shutdown of Jiangyin Hon bang and other devices, the support for the market is still available. Some pet factory's inquiry is still available, the core of the international crude oil is down, and the PTA market is running down.

In the first half of 2016, the domestic PTA market fluctuated little. During the period, the small rebate came from the influence of capital side. In the second half of the year, PTA still faced many pressures.

From the perspective of raw materials, there is no big market for Asian PX market in the second half of 2016. On the one hand, PTA oversupply is obvious, and demand for PX is maintained just now. During the period of G20, terminal parking capacity is more than upstream, so demand will not be better than the first half.

On the other hand, because PX-PTA basically takes the form of contract, the volume of imports will not decrease in the second half of the year.

Although China has no new PX capacity in the second half of the year, a 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PX plant in India is planned to go into operation by the end of the year to suppress market sentiment.

However, the market also has certain support. In the past year, the "golden nine silver ten" peak season is characterized by a dull feature. This year, the opportunity for speculation may be larger. Therefore, it is expected that the PX market will maintain a concussion pattern in the second half of 2016.

From the point of view of supply and demand, the domestic PTA installations started to be relatively high in the first half of the year. Apart from a few sets of long term parking devices in the country, the load of other devices was running high, and the supply was quite adequate. The supply of the market in the second half of the year was still under heavy pressure.

And demand side, because the polyester load is still 82.6% high, under the high pressure of polyester stocks, polyester load is further limited.

As the weather turns hot, the beverage industry and the textile industry will soon enter the seasonal off-season. Before the G20 summit, 6-8 months in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces,

Printing and dyeing enterprises have entered the stage of limited production. The demand for terminal textile will continue to weaken, which will further drag the polyester market, and the possibility of weakening polyester loading will be greater.

Therefore, on the whole, the PTA market in the second half of the year will remain weak. But in the medium and long term, the domestic PTA market still faces greater risks, and there are still many uncertainties.