If PX Can Not Fall, PTA Futures Still Have Little Room To Go Down.

Britain's withdrawal from Europe has intensified its macro risks, crude oil has gone down, and market uncertainty has increased. From the point of view of PTA's own supply and demand, even if Yisheng overhaul 2 million 200 thousand tons on schedule in the early July, the Hon Bang restart basically counteracted its influence, while the downstream polyester started to show signs of decline, but at present, less than 400 of the spot processing fee is very difficult to endure. If PX can not fall, the space for PTA futures to descend is still small. Crude oil has started to go down, and the price of PX800 above is hard to sustain. Short term PTA will continue to oscillate at 4700, but PX changes will be needed in the medium term.

This week PTA was strong and volatile. Last Friday, after a brief hit of 4620 front-line, it rebounded rapidly and closed to 4700 front-line. With the increase of PX and crude oil on Monday, the PTA price rose sharply, breaking 4800. However, in the case of no significant improvement in the fundamentals, PX was somewhat high, and on Tuesday, the PTA fell at a high level, leaving the big line and closing below 4700. On Wednesday, when PX was temporarily stable, and the atmosphere of the whole commodity market was too much, PTA rose again. Thursday, it continued to try to strike again after 4800 fruitless results. PTA Concussion fell, closed at 4688, and the whole week fell 20 yuan / ton. Friday night rebounded, closing at 4726.

PX: this week, the overall strength of the energy futures market has been affected. Asian PX prices have risen, while Asian PX prices have been rising. Based on the economic instability factors such as Britain's withdrawal from Europe and the appreciation of the US dollar, the Brent crude oil futures market fluctuated greatly. But as a result of the referendum on the British withdrawal from Europe on Friday, the stock market and commodity market declined, so the price of Asian PX fell. Traders are still observing the subsequent impact of the UK's withdrawal from Europe on the global commodity market, stock market and exchange rate index. But the global economy will not be affected by the European retreat, even in the short run. The price of naphtha on Friday afternoon will start to rebound and is expected to rebound next week. Because of the strong demand for PX this week, manufacturers continue to raise prices, so the price of PX goes higher from Monday to Thursday.

Although there is a PTA plant shutdown in July, the total from the PTA plant will be installed. demand It will remain high. Yisheng Petrochemical announced on Friday afternoon that it plans to start a 15 day overhaul of the 1 PTA production line in Dalian with capacity of 2 million 200 thousand tons / year starting in early July. Other large plant installations will continue to maintain high opening rates to meet the needs of downstream users, including Yisheng Petrochemical's other operating devices and Hengli Petrochemical three 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA production lines. Hon Bang Petrochemical Company's PTA plant in Jiangyin has been shut down, and this is one of the factors that other PTA production lines are running high. Last week, the PTA production line with two capacity of 1 million 100 thousand tons / a year and a production capacity of 600 thousand tons per year was in the state of shutdown and maintenance. The company is expected to restart two production capacity 1 million 100 thousand tons / year PTA production line in early July. Jiarong Petrochemical Company is short of raw material PX, so its PTA device may be lowered according to the supply of raw material PX in the future. Operating rate 。

This week, Japan's light industry confirmed that it will merge with Showa Shell in April next year, before JX announced that it would merge with the East fuel company, so that Japanese PX manufacturers would be reduced. Both Japanese JX company and Sask are PX Asian negotiating partners.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the refinery without maintenance is high. In South Korea, almost all PX installations are operating at 9-10, divided by the modern petrochemical PX device, which isomerization of xylene. SK's global chemical (SKGlobalChemical) capacity 450 thousand tons / year PX facility in Ulsan will be resumed this weekend, ending a month long overhaul, and its operating rate in July will remain high. Kyrgyzstan Japanese energy (JXNipponOilandEnergy) restart the 200 thousand tons / year facility in Chita and the 420 thousand ton / year production facility at the big point, with a current operating rate of 80-85%.

In China, the PX plant of Urumqi Petrochemical Company, which has capacity of 1 million tons per year, will be overhauled in early June, and its maintenance will last two months. Its PTA device is also being overhauled. Ningbo CICC plans to overhaul its capacity of 1 million 600 thousand tons / year PX device in September, coinciding with the Hangzhou G20 summit, but the exact maintenance time has not yet been finalized. China's Zhenhai Refining and chemical production capacity of 660 thousand tons / year PX device may reduce operating rate during the G20 summit. Shanghai Petrochemical will overhaul the PX plant with a capacity of 600 thousand tons / year. Liaoyang petrochemical production capacity of 450 thousand tons / year PX plant is scheduled to be overhauled from early July to September.

PTA: this week's PTA market is the main shock. The average price of the internal disk rose 46 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the external market rose 11 dollars / ton.

External market: in the first half of this week, the market is waiting for the "Euro retreat" referendum, basically maintaining the state of shock and finishing. PTA disk processing fee is still less than 400 yuan / ton, and there is no short selling opportunity in the short term. Coupled with the purchase of dozens of ships PX by a buyer last week, the price of PX this week continued to be strong at $820 / ton or slightly higher, so this week's PTA dollar center rose to $635-640 / ton after continuing high consolidation. However, the buyer's intent to catch up is relatively weak. Polyester factories have no purchasing mood for the above $620 / ton basis. The non polyester market has a turnover of 635 US dollars / ton in the week, and this week individual bonded spanactions have been traded at 620 US dollars / ton.

Inside market: the performance of the internal market is basically the same as that of last week, but the low level of low cost logic support still has a certain amount of buying. The spot base was basically maintained at 110-120 yuan / ton, the warehouse receipts -30 yuan / ton, and some of the positive suppliers who bought the goods last week were significantly reduced due to the restart of the device, and some spanaction prices fell 4600-4650 yuan / ton.