PTA Processing Fee Is Too Low, Downward Space Is Limited.

Yisheng petrochemical Dalian, Hon Bang petrochemical, Ya Dong petrochemical and Urumqi and other units in July there are overhaul plans, Taiwan, BP and other devices restart, downstream

High operating rate, PTA fundamentals remain strong for the time being.

Naphtha crude oil spreads are expected to remain low. The expansion of PX- naphtha spreads will continue to expand. The TA609 disk price will cost 434 yuan / ton, and the downstream polyester cash flow is still low.

At present, there are still more than 170000 warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts are still relatively suppressed PTA spot, but the TA fundamentals temporarily difficult to deteriorate.

At present, the polyester plant has a high operating rate.

Demand is forming support; TA starts 74.6 and TA goes to stock.

TA continued downward space limited, rebounded by warehouse receipts suppression, recommended 4600-4850 interval pactions.

Cost side: Good: the peak season of summer demand is coming, and US crude oil inventories continue to decline.

Crude oil has not increased.

Spreads analysis: crude oil - naphtha oil price is 63 US dollars, the split price difference still lingers low; the PX- naphtha oil price difference maintains near 376 US dollars / ton, this price difference continues to expand the space limited; PTA now sells now

346 yuan / ton, processing fee is low, TA609 disk price corresponds to processing cost 434 yuan / ton, PTA processing fee is too low.

Basic analysis: Yisheng petrochemical Dalian, Hon Bang petrochemical, Ya Dong petrochemical and Urumqi and other units in July there are overhaul plans, platform, BP and other devices to restart, the downstream polyester operating rate is high, PTA fundamentals remain strong for the time being.

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The TA plant's operating rate increased by 2.6 to 74.6%, the polyester plant decreased by 0.5 to 82.6%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms maintained 68%.

The average stock of TA plant lasted 2.5 days, and the average stock of polyester plant lasted for 6.5 days.

DTY inventory reduced by 0.5 to 25 days, POY inventory maintained 15.5 days, FDY inventory reduced by 0.5 to 17.5 days.

This week polyester chip maintains 5900 yuan / ton, bottle grade polyester maintains 6350 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber rises 23.33 to 6623.33 yuan / ton, DTY maintains 8100 yuan / ton, POY rises 70 to 6520 yuan / ton.