The Arrival Of The Traditional Textile Industry In The Low Season

In July, the traditional off-season of the domestic textile industry came to the end, and spot resources in 2015/16 were depleted. The light market was affected by the sharp rise in the bid price of zhengmian futures and national cotton auction. Recently, the domestic market has been rising and the mainstream price of cotton has been refreshed. Especially under the support of the high quality cotton gap, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton has exceeded 15000 yuan / ton, up 1500 yuan / ton, or 12%, compared with the beginning of May.

Although the fundamentals of market supply and demand have not improved significantly, the high turnover rate, strong cotton futures and the supply gap in the new year have all become the "pushing hands" of the market.

From February Zheng cotton low point to 10000 yuan to April's 8 days, 4 daily limit plates, the sluggish cotton market has been pushed to the cusp of the storm again. The significant increase of Zheng cotton's "pushing hands" on the spot market is obvious. In June, the "slow ox market" in the first half of the month is more obvious. Although the spot volume is low, the overall paction price of the national reserve high is strong and strong, but the cotton price in the off-season needs no basis for expansion. In the long and short game, the price of the cotton price shocks at the end of June deepens. Especially in July, the RMB devaluation expectation, the national dumping policy "hunger marketing", the weather factors and so on are all flooded with various kinds of interests, which is a great contrast with the spot market demand.

From the aspect of national cotton storage, it was launched in May 3rd.

Since the turn of the market, the market has continued to sell at a high level. In May, the national cotton store kept a high turnover rate of over 97%, and at the end of May, 300 thousand tons of imported cotton were all sold out.

Since June, all the national cotton reserves have been put into domestic cotton, and the volume and paction price of the national cotton store also show a slight fluctuation, but the turnover is still at a high level. As of July 11th, the cumulative reserve plan for the 2015/2016 cotton warehouse was 1 million 240 thousand and 400 tons, with a total turnover of 1 million 214 thousand tons, with a turnover rate of 97.87%, of which the total domestic cotton turnover was 917 thousand and 700 tons, with a turnover rate of 97.78%. The total import cotton turnover was 296 thousand and 300 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.16%, and the average turnover length was 28.3mm.

For 12479 yuan / ton, total turnover was 776.

Entering the year July, the new cotton sales in China were basically over in 2015-16.

Supply is the only channel, accounting for the number of rounds coming out. In the early stage, the external volume of national cotton reserves can basically guarantee the level of 30 thousand tons per day, but with the containment of such problems as outgoing warehouses and public inspection, the external volume has been reduced. Up to now, the average daily volume is about 24 thousand.

From the sales base price of national cotton reserves, only two weeks of the bottom price has slightly reduced, the current (eleventh weeks) National Reserve sales base price rose to 13053 yuan / ton, the price difference between the first week and the start of 1032 yuan / ton, and quality resources increased significantly, the highest increase of 4400 yuan / ton, the actual paction price reached 14143 yuan / ton.

Under the current traditional off-season, the terminal spinning enterprise funds and finished product inventory sales are slow to restrict the competition of textile enterprises. At present, the participation of traders is relatively high.

According to the author's understanding, with the price of raw materials rising, the profits of textile enterprises showed a significant decline. A 50 thousand cotton spinning mill in Henan showed that the spot price quotas of cotton increased significantly in the 2015/16 cotton market. The spinning of C21S, C32S and C40S yarn had not only lost profits but had a loss of 500-1000 yuan / ton. In order to complete the order, the spinning enterprises could only increase the price to compete for the national cotton stores from the traders. If the stock prices were low, the textile enterprises would follow the pull up, but the stock was slightly higher than that of the cotton enterprises.

It is estimated that a large number of Xinjiang cotton will go to the mainland market generally around November, while the dumping and storage will basically end at the end of August. There will be a blank period of 2-3 months in the middle. The spinning enterprises are ready to complete the corresponding inventory at the current stage of dumping and storage. The current demand for reserves is not enough, and the early traders are running low inventory, and there are replenishment operations demand in the market may improve, so the overall cotton market in the near future will continue to be a good trend.

It is expected that in the short term, the heat of market reserve cotton will not be reduced, and the volume of trading will continue to run at a high level. The basis of high position of lint cash is still in operation.

Based on the supply gap caused by the decline of planting area and weather factors in the new year, the new year opening pattern is more obvious, and the new cotton 14500-15000 yuan / ton interval is expected to be oscillating.