A Share Market Volatility Frequent How To Continue To Obtain Excess Returns

As a fund manager for many years, he has to learn to perceive changes in the market. He also needs to be vigilant against risks and to judge the trend in a calm and objective way.

For example, in the first 2 months of the year, the market experienced huge fluctuations. Our control of stock positions was very strict, and the fluctuation of net value was far less than that of similar funds and the same period market.

At the same time, as the market continues downward and the mood of the parties is extremely pessimistic, we also see opportunities for valuation repair that have occurred in the wrong stock market, so as to grasp the market in a timely manner.

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In terms of economic fundamentals, the economy may face downward pressure in the three quarter.

First, from the two quarter of the data, such as real estate investment, sales and new construction area growth data compared to the first quarter of the decline, coupled with the introduction of housing restriction measures and other background, to the economy.

The biggest drivers of real estate are getting colder.

Second, the investment in fixed assets of enterprises has fallen considerably. Most of the retained cash is used to repay foreign debts.

Third, the external demand has so far not shown any signs of improvement.

Overall, the three quarter of the macro economy is relatively cautious.

Relatively speaking, the bond market is relatively optimistic about the three quarter opportunities. If the downward pressure on the economy is relatively large, it is likely that there will be a new round of credit expansion, and the input of fiscal policy will also come out, and bond yields may have a downward trend.

In the second half of the year, bond market opportunities may mainly come from fluctuations. Of course, this fluctuation may be larger than that in the first half.

Because the economy is in the downward process, if there is a rate cut or a reduction, the yield down should be visible.

Expected this year

Or the probability of a drop in the four quarter is likely to be greater.

The stock market, after several rounds of market adjustment baptism, the overall index has not changed much, the structural market is endless.

For the second half of the year, based on the current state, it is not expected that the index space will be very large, and the whole market will remain the stock market, but the structural market will still exist.

From the macro point of view, the stock market in the three quarter is a vacuum period. The larger impact events have basically taken place at the end of June. The Fed's interest rate hike is also postponed to September. With the launch of the China Daily and SOE reform policies, the structural market of the stock market in the three quarter will be more obvious.

It is from the industry life cycle, industry space, industry growth rate, valuation level, investment capital return and other dimensions to identify manufacturing industry sub industry investment opportunities, layout in line with China made 2025 planning of manufacturing pformation stocks, focusing on the new generation of information technology, energy saving, environmental protection, biological, high-end equipment in four areas of listed companies; two is focused on the growth of profit growth and the high degree of vitality of the industry stocks, specifically for the emerging industries and traditional industries pformation direction, its fields include environmental protection, industry 4, cultural media, consumption and other high quality and determine the growth industry quality stocks; three is the steady growth policy will continue to increase in the future, infrastructure investment will grow rapidly, and the infrastructure industry will benefit from the positive layout. According to the principle of balanced allocation, the main layout is as follows: Three

Our investment strategy is mainly based on two levels: first, the allocation of assets in large categories, as far as possible to avoid systemic risks in the stock market, and to grasp the investment opportunities arising from market fluctuations. Secondly, we adopt a bottom-up analysis method, from the quantitative and qualitative aspects of two aspects, through in-depth basic research and analysis, to select a good quality listed company with good development prospects and undervalued value in the theme of manufacturing pformation.