Stock Market Outlook: The Trend Does Not Depend On The Game Of Market Capital Objects.

It is sad for China's small and medium-sized investors to think about it. They must bear the hardship of seven losses and two gains and losses for a long time, bear the fraudulent practices of all kinds of trading means of the elite of the venture capital institutions, and bear the responsibility of the short bear market.

At the end of July 2014, A shares successfully went out of the bottom of the 2000 bear markets and opened a round of momentum like the big crazy bull market. In June 12, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the 5178 round of the bull market at the end of the current bull market. The cumulative increase in the 11 month market reached more than 150%, but it was only 11 months.

We still have not broken through the 3478 high points after the subprime mortgage crisis, let alone the historical high of 6124.

Under the "retail market" pattern, the bull market rushing headlong into the herd, the fast bull, the mad cow, the one step in place, the bear market is dispersed, the bear journey is endless, and the declining trend is endless.

The law of ox bear alternates mostly in the non healthy pattern of "short cattle and slow bear".

The US stock market is different. After the subprime mortgage crisis, the three major indexes of the United States opened the slow cow mode. Although the stock index rose by more than 1% every day, but thanks to the rise or fall of the stock index and the small wave and slow wave of the stock index, the Daniel market has been on the road for 7 years and has not yet finished. After 8 days of trading in the UK, it has reached a record high.

The DJIA has been refreshing its record in the near future after its record high of 18500 points this month.

In the past 7 months, 88 months in total, the Dow Jones index has risen 180%. In response to the enviable trend of the Manniu in the United States, the anxious Chinese fast bear trend has been observed. Professor Dong Dengxin believes that the bull market is coming, rushing headlong into mass action, and all the people buying stocks.

Mad cow, fast bull and short bull seem to cater to the speculative mentality of people making quick money and frying the bull market in the morning.

Of course, this is a joke. Although Professor Dong has made fun of himself, he has portrayed the typical characteristics of China's stock market as follows: herd mentality and herd mentality. However, it is unfair to attribute the short bear length to small investors in China's stock market, which means that in order to healthy bull market, we should try to expel small and medium investors and develop institutional investors.

Professor Tung said: "

The main feature of the "institutional market" is that the bilateral bilateral game players always take the institutional investors as the main body, and the bilateral equivalence game under the operation of large funds, large combinations and specialized teams. The market valuation is more rational and more balanced, which is conducive to smoothing the market fluctuation and conducive to the steady operation of the market.

Its bear and bear alternation often appears as a healthy pattern of "slow cow and short bear".

Correspondingly, the "retail market" is dominated by individual investors. Most of the players are mostly retail investors. Sometimes they may be interpreted as institutional investors. Basically, there will be no equilibrium game between institutions and institutions.

　　市場走勢不是取決于市場資金對象的博弈，而在于博弈方式的不同，在中國機(jī)構(gòu)也好市場大佬也好，都缺乏以中長期持股理念，而追求一種短期利潤最大化，總是挖空心思利用資金優(yōu)勢操縱市場，掠奪其他投資者的財(cái)富尤其是缺少常識的中小投資者的財(cái)富，根本就不是投資，而是交易欺詐，市場常常演繹機(jī)構(gòu)與游資大佬的資金對決，要么機(jī)構(gòu)撤退游資大佬進(jìn)場，要么是游資大佬撤退機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)場，或者干脆就是大資金與中小投資者的博弈，次新股博弈更為強(qiáng)烈一點(diǎn)，每一個次新股大幅走強(qiáng)背后都閃現(xiàn)著各種大資金的身影，據(jù)鳳凰網(wǎng)，6月20日文章，“經(jīng)過短暫回調(diào)后的次新股板塊再掀狂潮，上周三、周五兩個交易日，次新股指數(shù)漲幅均超過5%，不少次新板塊個股紛紛上演漲停潮，公開數(shù)據(jù)顯示，機(jī)構(gòu)頻頻現(xiàn)身次新股前五大買賣席位”。

The valuation of sub shares is much higher than that of the same industry.

Is this value investing? Is it a long-term investment? No, it's just a short-term behavior. Everyone knows what to do. If we can get one, we will be able to succeed.

Without big capital participation, can we only rely on small and medium investors to get new shares?

　　中國有一句話焦作種瓜得瓜種豆得豆，言外之意就是有什么樣的投資文化和投資理念，有什么樣的法律環(huán)境，就會有什么樣的投資風(fēng)格，在中國，由于執(zhí)法環(huán)境較為寬松，市場參與者對法律缺乏敬畏之心，而通過市場操縱相比價(jià)值投資又更容易獲得超額利潤，而承擔(dān)法律責(zé)任有較為有限，在股災(zāi)發(fā)生以前基本不用承擔(dān)法律責(zé)任，從監(jiān)管來說有的時(shí)候?yàn)榱酥笖?shù)的繁榮往往放棄對市場交易的監(jiān)管，因此導(dǎo)致市場操縱極為盛行，不管是主流機(jī)構(gòu)、知名私募和游資大佬都熱衷于市場操縱牟取暴利，漲停板敢死隊(duì)在中國股市名聲赫赫，其背后含義就是市場操縱手段兇悍，其總舵主徐翔有諸多成名經(jīng)典案例，比如重慶啤酒和獐子島等等，就是公募基金也難逃其咎，聯(lián)合持股問題和抱團(tuán)取暖問題一直被市場廣泛質(zhì)疑，雖然法律上鑒定其市場操縱存有異議，但是成就了15年諸多

Super Bull Stock, for example, all through education, Lang Ma information and anshuo information, Xinhua publicly questioned the information of New Zealand's new shares, Wang's 2 million profit, how to support the 400 share price, Xinhua pointed out that as of the first quarter of this year, the top ten shareholders were occupied by the fund; while in the list of 400 yuan high, the agency's sweeping action continued.

The high valuations are always in the rush to catch up. It is because the public funds are heating up and pulling up the stock price to do the high fund net value rather than considering the investment value. Therefore, the stock price always keeps rising and keeps accumulating too many short-term risks.

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When it comes to market manipulation, we have to say that the continuous trading under the manipulation of the trading limit is a very common way of manipulating the Chinese market. With the strong capital advantage, the main funds are going to pull up to the next day after the stock price rises, and then another venture capital intervention is pulled to the limit again, so that the stock price is often doubled in the short term, but the burst of the fundamentals is also a sign that once the big funds are taken away, the share price will plummet quickly and fall to a certain extent. The cost of holding shares will be similar, and the cost will be similar to that of the long bear, until the small and medium-sized retail investors are cutting the meat one after another, and the big money can enter the market again to absorb the chips.

This is the root cause of the short bear.

Unwilling to obtain a more stable profit through long-term shareholding, on the one hand, the market manipulation is easier to get huge profits, but also because of the lack of a scientific long-term plan, which is mainly reflected in the absence of a scientific long-term plan for IPO. Under the guise of supporting the real economy, it often appears out of control, and there is a big leap forward expansion. The three years of the pseudo market reform are the same. In the first half of 15 years, the new stock market has suddenly accelerated. Whether it is large or small investors can not grasp the impact of the expansion of the post market on the index, so more people always want to take advantage of the positive stock market policy, and regulate it for the time being. The reason for big money

Therefore, the normalization of IPO and the scientization of marketization are crucial to the smooth operation of the market.

Therefore, as long as China's law enforcement environment is still loose and market manipulation is still prevalent, the sharp rise and fall of stock prices will be difficult to eradicate from the Chinese stock market, because market manipulation is fast and fast, and it is impossible to get out of the slow rising market, because they are pursuing a short-term price difference. They will use capital advantages to guide the share price to run according to their wishes and operate according to the pattern that can attract other investors to follow suit. Once they succeed, they will immediately withdraw and complete a perfect market investment behavior, while the market manipulation of the slow moving cattle is too costly to run, and it is easy to fail.

Value regression is a long and painful process based on the fact that the cost of shareholding converging is not likely to be completed in the short term.

From this point of view, Professor Dong Dengxin's proposal to increase the marketization and rule of law reform is worth affirming, but as for the relationship between registration system reform and the slow cow, I hold a reservation.

Under such circumstances, unilateral proposals to strengthen institutional strength may not be feasible, because the main problem in China's stock market is institutions.

Professor Tung suggested that the expansion of public funds should be expanded by ten times as a stock market development strategy in the next ten years. But it is not necessarily a weapon to expand the public fund in the next ten years. But it is not necessarily a good weapon to change the stock market in China. Then professor Dong Dengxin suggests expanding the coverage of enterprise annuity and occupational annuity, increasing the employee participation rate and the contribution rate. For second, Professor Tung may wish to increase the pension and enterprise annuity market strength, so as to realize the US 401K plan, because China has a saying that the US stock market has benefited from the pformation of the market investment style and entered the era of value investing, and out of the wave after another. Gradually scattered, short-term, assimilation, everyone is keen on the same concept of the same theme, constantly high pursuit.

Although there has been a consensus on increasing the intensity of pension market entry, it is also agreed that the pension market is not a rescue of China's stock market. Besides, the Pension Structure in China is different from that in the United States. China's pension is actually the basic pension of the US government. There are different 401K plans in the US. If the enterprise annuity is used as 401K, the scale is very small, even if the market entry has little impact on the market.

It is true that small and medium investors in China are lack of good investment rationality and investment ideas, like to chase hot topics in the market, and cause the market to fluctuate easily, which makes the market easy to fluctuate. However, the responsibility of the Chinese stock market to rise and fall and bear short bears is always blamed on the fact that small and medium investors are not necessarily fair. Because there is no big capital in some stocks to use capital advantage and use various trading means to deliberately guide certain trend, small investors will not follow suit. In fact, those who follow suit will always lose more and earn less, because the leaders must be the biggest winners, and they have harvested most of the spread.

At the most, it is just an accomplice of the bull market and the bull bear. The real culprit is still big capital like big money.

The market manipulation of private equity gangs and public offering funds is unscrupulous.

Admittedly, there are many small investors in China's stock market and lack of investment philosophy, which is one of the main forces in the market to catch up and down. However, the small and medium investors should be blamed for the sharp rise and fall of the bull bear in the Chinese stock market. As a member of the small and medium-sized investors, the author does not recognize it. It is also a big objection. The small and medium investors will be the biggest ones in the market, but the initiator and the leader are the big investors in the market, including the private equity giants, the hot money chiefs or even the public funds.

Therefore, the simple development of institutional strength will not change the status quo of the short bear in China, but it is essential to intensify the crackdown on market manipulation and the scientification of IPO. As long as large funds do not dare to manipulate the market arbitrarily, small and medium-sized investors have no chance to follow suit, and the market has a clear expectation of the rhythm of new shares, and the share price will not rise sharply.

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It is sad for China's small and medium-sized investors to think about it. They must bear the hardship of seven losses and two gains and losses for a long time, bear the fraudulent practices of all kinds of trading means of the elite of the venture capital institutions, and bear the responsibility of the short bear market.

At the end of July 2014, A shares successfully went out of the bottom of the 2000 bear markets and opened a round of momentum like the big crazy bull market. In June 12, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the 5178 round of the bull market at the end of the current bull market. The cumulative increase in the 11 month market reached more than 150%, but it was only 11 months.

We still have not broken through the 3478 high points after the subprime mortgage crisis, let alone the historical high of 6124.

Under the "retail market" pattern, the bull market rushing headlong into the herd, the fast bull, the mad cow, the one step in place, the bear market is dispersed, the bear journey is endless, and the declining trend is endless.

The law of ox bear alternates mostly in the non healthy pattern of "short cattle and slow bear".

The US stock market is different. After the subprime mortgage crisis, the three major indexes of the United States opened the slow cow mode. Although the stock index rose by more than 1% every day, but thanks to the rise or fall of the stock index and the small wave and slow wave of the stock index, the Daniel market has been on the road for 7 years and has not yet finished. After 8 days of trading in the UK, it has reached a record high.

The DJIA has been refreshing its record in the near future after its record high of 18500 points this month.

In the past 7 months, 88 months in total, the Dow Jones index has risen 180%. In response to the enviable trend of the Manniu in the United States, the anxious Chinese fast bear trend has been observed. Professor Dong Dengxin believes that the bull market is coming, rushing headlong into mass action, and all the people buying stocks.

Mad cow, fast bull and short bull seem to cater to the speculative mentality of people making quick money and frying the bull market in the morning.

Of course, this is a joke. Although Professor Dong has made fun of himself, he has portrayed the typical characteristics of China's stock market as follows: herd mentality and herd mentality. However, it is unfair to attribute the short bear length to small investors in China's stock market, which means that in order to healthy bull market, we should try to expel small and medium investors and develop institutional investors.

Professor Tung said: "

The main feature of the "institutional market" is that the bilateral bilateral game players always take the institutional investors as the main body, and the bilateral equivalence game under the operation of large funds, large combinations and specialized teams. The market valuation is more rational and more balanced, which is conducive to smoothing the market fluctuation and conducive to the steady operation of the market.

Its bear and bear alternation often appears as a healthy pattern of "slow cow and short bear".

Correspondingly, the "retail market" is dominated by individual investors. Most of the players are mostly retail investors. Sometimes they may be interpreted as institutional investors. Basically, there will be no equilibrium game between institutions and institutions.

　　市場走勢不是取決于市場資金對象的博弈，而在于博弈方式的不同，在中國機(jī)構(gòu)也好市場大佬也好，都缺乏以中長期持股理念，而追求一種短期利潤最大化，總是挖空心思利用資金優(yōu)勢操縱市場，掠奪其他投資者的財(cái)富尤其是缺少常識的中小投資者的財(cái)富，根本就不是投資，而是交易欺詐，市場常常演繹機(jī)構(gòu)與游資大佬的資金對決，要么機(jī)構(gòu)撤退游資大佬進(jìn)場，要么是游資大佬撤退機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)場，或者干脆就是大資金與中小投資者的博弈，次新股博弈更為強(qiáng)烈一點(diǎn)，每一個次新股大幅走強(qiáng)背后都閃現(xiàn)著各種大資金的身影，據(jù)鳳凰網(wǎng)，6月20日文章，“經(jīng)過短暫回調(diào)后的次新股板塊再掀狂潮，上周三、周五兩個交易日，次新股指數(shù)漲幅均超過5%，不少次新板塊個股紛紛上演漲停潮，公開數(shù)據(jù)顯示，機(jī)構(gòu)頻頻現(xiàn)身次新股前五大買賣席位”。

The valuation of sub shares is much higher than that of the same industry.

Is this value investing? Is it a long-term investment? No, it's just a short-term behavior. Everyone knows what to do. If we can get one, we will be able to succeed.

Without big capital participation, can we only rely on small and medium investors to get new shares?

　　中國有一句話焦作種瓜得瓜種豆得豆，言外之意就是有什么樣的投資文化和投資理念，有什么樣的法律環(huán)境，就會有什么樣的投資風(fēng)格，在中國，由于執(zhí)法環(huán)境較為寬松，市場參與者對法律缺乏敬畏之心，而通過市場操縱相比價(jià)值投資又更容易獲得超額利潤，而承擔(dān)法律責(zé)任有較為有限，在股災(zāi)發(fā)生以前基本不用承擔(dān)法律責(zé)任，從監(jiān)管來說有的時(shí)候?yàn)榱酥笖?shù)的繁榮往往放棄對市場交易的監(jiān)管，因此導(dǎo)致市場操縱極為盛行，不管是主流機(jī)構(gòu)、知名私募和游資大佬都熱衷于市場操縱牟取暴利，漲停板敢死隊(duì)在中國股市名聲赫赫，其背后含義就是市場操縱手段兇悍，其總舵主徐翔有諸多成名經(jīng)典案例，比如重慶啤酒和獐子島等等，就是公募基金也難逃其咎，聯(lián)合

And the problem of Baotuan heating has been widely questioned by the market. Although there are some objections to the legal manipulation of its market manipulation, many achievements have been made in the past 15 years, such as the education of Lang Ma and the information of Andrew. The Xinhua network openly questioned the safety of the new stock market, and Wang's 2 million profit was 400. As of the first quarter of this year, the top ten tradable shareholders were all occupied by the fund; while in the list of 400 yuan high, the agency's sweeping action continued.

The high valuations are always in the rush to catch up. It is because the public funds are heating up and pulling up the stock price to do the high fund net value rather than considering the investment value. Therefore, the stock price always keeps rising and keeps accumulating too many short-term risks.

{page_break}

When it comes to market manipulation, we have to say that the continuous trading under the manipulation of the trading limit is a very common way of manipulating the Chinese market. With the strong capital advantage, the main funds are going to pull up to the next day after the stock price rises, and then another venture capital intervention is pulled to the limit again, so that the stock price is often doubled in the short term, but the burst of the fundamentals is also a sign that once the big funds are taken away, the share price will plummet quickly and fall to a certain extent. The cost of holding shares will be similar, and the cost will be similar to that of the long bear, until the small and medium-sized retail investors are cutting the meat one after another, and the big money can enter the market again to absorb the chips.

This is the root cause of the short bear.

The reason why large funds do not want to get more stable profits through long-term shareholding is that market manipulation is easier to get huge profits, but also because market positioning is not clear. It is mainly reflected in the lack of a scientific long-term plan for IPO. Under the guise of supporting the real economy, it often appears out of control, and there is a big leap forward expansion. The three years of the pseudo market reform are the same. In the first half of 15 years, too, the new shares have suddenly accelerated.

When the bull market is coming, we can get a lot of money and get rid of it, so the bull market always seems to be coming and rushing.

Therefore, the normalization of IPO and the scientization of marketization are crucial to the smooth operation of the market.

Therefore, as long as China's law enforcement environment is still loose and market manipulation is still prevalent, it is difficult for stock prices to rise and fall.

Eradication, because the market manipulation is fast and fast, can not get out of the slow rising market, because they are pursuing a short-term price difference, the use of capital advantage to guide the share price according to their wishes to run, in accordance with the mode that can attract other investors to follow suit, once they succeed, they will immediately evacuate, complete a perfect market investment behavior, and the market manipulation operation is too high, and it is easy to fail. Delong is the best witness, so there is no possibility of long-term bull market trend. There will only be short-term inflation and the next price return.

Value regression is a long and painful process based on the fact that the cost of shareholding converging is not likely to be completed in the short term.

From this point of view, Professor Dong Dengxin's proposal to increase the marketization and rule of law reform is worth affirming, but as for the relationship between registration system reform and the slow cow, I hold a reservation.

這種情況下，單方面建議壯大機(jī)構(gòu)力量的建議未必可行，因?yàn)橹袊墒兄饕獑栴}是機(jī)構(gòu)投資逐漸散戶化，短期化，趨同化，大家熱衷于同一個題材同一個概念，不斷高位追擊，一榮共榮一損共損，董教授建議做大做強(qiáng)公募基金，在未來十年可將公募基金擴(kuò)容十倍作為一種股市發(fā)展策略未必不可，但要說寄望于機(jī)構(gòu)改變中國股市牛短熊長未必就是利器，接著董登新教授建議擴(kuò)大企業(yè)年金和職業(yè)年金的覆蓋面，提高雇員參加率和繳費(fèi)率，針對第二點(diǎn)董教授可能是希望加大養(yǎng)老金和企業(yè)年金入市力度，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)美國401K計(jì)劃，因?yàn)橹袊幸粋€說法就是美國股市得益于401K計(jì)劃完成了市場投資風(fēng)格的蛻變而進(jìn)入價(jià)值投資時(shí)代，走出了一波又一波慢牛。

Although there has been a consensus on increasing the intensity of pension market entry, it is also agreed that the pension market is not a rescue of China's stock market. Besides, the Pension Structure in China is different from that in the United States. China's pension is actually the basic pension of the US government. There are different 401K plans in the US. If the enterprise annuity is used as 401K, the scale is very small, even if the market entry has little impact on the market.

It is true that small and medium investors in China are lack of good investment rationality and investment ideas, like to chase hot topics in the market, and cause the market to fluctuate easily, which makes the market easy to fluctuate. However, the responsibility of the Chinese stock market to rise and fall and bear short bears is always blamed on the fact that small and medium investors are not necessarily fair. Because there is no big capital in some stocks to use capital advantage and use various trading means to deliberately guide certain trend, small investors will not follow suit. In fact, those who follow suit will always lose more and earn less, because the leaders must be the biggest winners, and they have harvested most of the spread.

At the most, it is just an accomplice of the bull market and the bull bear. The real culprit is still big capital like big money.

The market manipulation of private equity gangs and public offering funds is unscrupulous.

Admittedly, there are many small investors in China's stock market and lack of investment philosophy, which is one of the main forces in the market to catch up and down. However, the small and medium investors should be blamed for the sharp rise and fall of the bull bear in the Chinese stock market. As a member of the small and medium-sized investors, the author does not recognize it. It is also a big objection. The small and medium investors will be the biggest ones in the market, but the initiator and the leader are the big investors in the market, including the private equity giants, the hot money chiefs or even the public funds.

Therefore, the simple development of institutional strength will not change the status quo of the short bear in China, but it is essential to intensify the crackdown on market manipulation and the scientification of IPO. As long as large funds do not dare to manipulate the market arbitrarily, small and medium-sized investors have no chance to follow suit, and the market has a clear expectation of the rhythm of new shares, and the share price will not rise sharply.