During The G20 Summit, The Production And Production Of Polyester Industry Will Involve More Capacity.

In June, the theme of the PTA market hype was the G20 summit, which led to the consumption of the downstream peak season, plus the overall strength of the goods and the support of PTA's low processing fees. Many factors resonate, and PTA prices rose in the off-season. However, compared with black products, compared with PP, PE and other chemicals, PTA's rebound has been relatively weak. The author believes that this is related to the excess capacity of PTA itself. Although the expansion rate of PTA capacity has slowed down in recent two years, the backward production capacity has begun to be eliminated, but the capacity to shoulder heavy responsibilities is far from being determined. Therefore, the price of PTA will continue to be weak and there is no upward trend of trend. However, the low processing fee and the lifting of polyester links closed the down space. PTA Temporarily into a stalemate.

Since 2011, the PTA industry has entered the high-speed expansion of production capacity. After 5 years of rapid growth, the domestic PTA capacity has increased from about 15000000 tons at the end of 2010 to nearly 47 million tons at the end of 2015, and about 3000000 tons of equipment have been put into operation and planned to be put into operation this year. Contrary to the rapid increase in upstream supply, the consumption of terminal textile and clothing is shrinking due to the loss of export orders. The terminal consumption market of industrial chain is difficult to digest the rapid increase of raw material supply, resulting in the problem of overcapacity in PTA, and the industry operating rate has dropped from 90% to less than 70%, which has also caused the PTA price to continue to fall.

In the past two years, Far East petrochemical and Xiang Lu petrochemical giant production giant two, the domestic effective capacity decline temporarily relieved the supply side pressure, but the two sets of devices after the completion of the reorganization may be restarted. Rumor has it that in the second half of the year, Xiang Lu Petrochemical may retry the car. In addition, besides Ji'nan Hao Hao, Liaoyang petrochemical, Peng Wei petrochemical, Yisheng Ningbo plant 2, BP Zhuhai 1, other devices have maintained normal production, and the original long term shutdown of Jialong petrochemical company has resumed this year. It can be seen that the backward production capacity is slow, and the PTA industry wants to achieve the goal of healthy development through the elimination of backward production capacity. Therefore, the price of PTA will continue to be constrained by excess capacity, showing a bottom oscillation pattern.

　　 Excess production capacity The profitability of the industry was basically completed in the first half of 2012. After that, PTA production has always been a small profit or loss. In the first half of this year, the industry processing fee is relatively ideal, but since June, the processing fee has been continuously compressed, and it has dropped to below 350 yuan / ton in the middle. In July, it continued to decline to around 300 yuan / ton. Moreover, the PX price (including ACP) was higher than 200 yuan / ton in the recent PTA market buying price, which showed that the loss of PTA was obvious.

Theoretically, there is limited space for PTA processing fees to continue to be compressed. The rise and fall of PTA's price center is closely related to the price of raw materials. Only when raw material prices fall and the cost of PTA's center of gravity moves down, can the new downside space be released. At present, crude oil prices continue to fall, PX profits are huge, PTA has a big drop in space. However, PTA price can continue to break down 4500 yuan / ton, the space below is large, also need to see the performance of raw materials.

It is understood that during the G20 summit, Polyester industry The reduction of production and production involves more capacity, so polyester enterprises maintain a high rate of labor before that, and make up for the loss of production that may result from limited production. At the same time, polyester sales are also better, the state of enterprise inventory is relatively ideal. In mid July, the sale of polyester products was triggered by the news of price increase. We can see that the downstream enterprises have the need to bargain and store up goods, so as to prevent the price rise that may result from tight supply after the limited production. However, after the recent increase in polyester price, the profit of downstream weaving and weaving is not good, and the overall operating rate of the industry continues to decline.

To sum up, in the medium to long term, the price of PTA will continue to be constrained by overcapacity, and there is no sustained upward momentum. In the short term, the PTA processing fee is lower than the supporting price, and the polyester maintain high opening rate will continue to benefit PTA. However, the Hon Bang petrochemical plant for pre parking has been restarted. Last week, the constant force device for temporary parking has been restarted. The PTA supply pressure can not be ignored. The end of August to the beginning of September is still bad. In short, PTA price decline is not easy to rise or difficult. There is no good trend trading opportunity in operation. Short wave band trading is recommended.