PTA Price Has Been Running At Cost.

Hanging on the top of the PTA futures price, apart from the falling US oil price, there is a more realistic problem, that is, the inventory of futures warehouse receipts.

As of July 26th, the number of remaining warehouse receipts was 188199.

The earlier OPEC and IEA crude oil monthly reports showed that the supply of crude oil market was excessive, and the oil storage remained serious, and oil prices were constantly suppressed.

On the one hand, OPEC crude oil output hit a 8 year high. Iran even raised its domestic oil exports by 1 times on the basis of 2 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia is also constantly improving its crude oil output and approaching its historical high.

On the other hand, the demand for crude oil in Asia began to slow down.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in June, China's crude oil imports fell for third consecutive months, with only 7 million 500 thousand barrels / day of imports, the lowest level in 5 months. At the same time, China's domestic demand was insufficient, resulting in a large number of refined oil exports hitting international oil prices. The demand for crude oil in India also increased less than in the first few months of this year. In June, the net imports of petroleum products in India decreased by 159 thousand barrels to 3 million 789 thousand barrels a month.

Oil and clothing company Beck Hughes released data released last week showed that the number of active drilling in the United States increased by 14 to 371, which has been increasing for 4 consecutive weeks, and is increasing for seventh weeks in the past 8 weeks.

Although this will not bring immediate results to the US oil production, it will cause the market to generate the psychological expectation that the US shale oil will come back on a large scale, thus bringing greater suppression to oil prices.

In addition to oil prices, Wang Yu, a researcher at Yihui resources research and investment center, said that before the crisis of Xiang Lu petrochemical and Far East Petrochemical Company, the overcapacity of PTA was more obvious, and gradually realized after 2015.

The state of tight equilibrium.

As for August, the capacity utilization rate is at a high level. The monthly capacity of the market is 2 million 700 thousand tons, which is affected by the G20 summit, which brings pressure to the upstream PTA plant.

The stock is also pferred from upstream to downstream polyester plant, so the supply and demand balance is basically maintained, and the large quantity of futures warehouse receipts may be more stock accumulated earlier, and the critical point is estimated.

For the current large amount of futures warehouse receipts, the industry said

It is a realistic problem faced by bulls, and the recipients are PTA factories, middle traders and downstream polyester factories.

The PTA factory will only pick up when the capacity is insufficient or if the warehouse receipt can bring more profits; the intermediate traders will only pick up the contract when the base of the 1609 contract is large enough; the polyester plant has the need to lock in profits ahead of schedule.

But the PTA factory can not see the intention of receiving the warehouse receipt for the time being; and the possibility of widening the base range is likely to increase. The middle traders are waiting for the opportunity to move. The downstream polyester factories are in oversold state at present, and there is a certain demand for raw materials, but whether they can digest in time can not be determined.

Wang Yu believes that traders are mainly concerned about the spread, PTA prices have been sticking to the cost of walking, now mainly look at the crude oil market.

In the second half of the year, the PTA plant will definitely reduce production, and the processing cost of the spot will be very low. And because of the large inventory, if there is no special case, the PTA price will continue for a period of time. With the gradual depletion of PTA inventory, the PTA price will be gradually restored.

For the PTA industry chain profit, market participants say that the profit of polyester is very good due to the impact of the reduction of production in some parts of the country, while PTA is depressed by low inventory. The naphtha is supported by domestic oil "floor price", and the factory starts up rate is large. Overcapacity and weak demand make profits fall. PX is greatly valued by large factories and large profits at home and abroad. The profit of naphtha is expected to rise in the second half of the year, while PX profits will drop a little.

The industry believes that in the second half of the year, the PTA price drop is limited, and in the long run, the probability of uplink is very high.