Global Cotton Inventories Continue To Decrease, And China'S Inventory Is Decreasing.

From a global perspective, Britain's European Union, Turkey coup, France's repeated terrorist attacks, Italy bank's debts and other issues are frequent. The unstable factors of international politics are increasing, and the European economy is also facing a huge test.

At present, the relatively good economy is also in the US market, but in this international environment it is expected that its interest rate will be pushed back.

Domestic market, the domestic real estate in the first two quarters has substantially increased our GDP, the overall economic data has not seen a big decline, but the foreign trade and investment situation is not good. In the second half of the year, we can hardly imagine the new bright spot for GDP growth.

We still have a wait-and-see attitude towards the domestic economic situation in the second half of the year.

Speaking from the fundamentals of international cotton, cotton production in 2016/17 has increased, but global cotton stocks have been substantially reduced.

International cotton prices rose, India cotton prices skyrocketing, India and Pakistan began to increase procurement

The amount of international cotton has formed a certain support.

Later, the international cotton trend is expected to be strong.

However, in view of the current listing of cotton reserves, the late increase is a matter of great probability. If the reserve cotton policy is only to increase the volume and maintain 30 thousand tons per day, and it is still the end of the auction in August 31st, the quantity of cotton reserves will increase by more than 300 thousand tons. For the market, it is only a short-term shortcoming. In the long run, even if we can meet the shortfall of the new flower listing, the new cotton market will not have a low price.

If reserve cotton is not only postponed, but the spinning enterprises will not worry about the supply of cotton. A large number of traders will gradually enter the market and cotton will weaken.

The 2016/17 balance sheet change announced in July: cotton production in India decreased by 109 thousand tons to 5 million 987 thousand tons, and cotton production in the United States increased significantly from 218 thousand tons to 3 million 440 thousand tons, and cotton production in Pakistan decreased by 218 thousand tons to 1 million 742 thousand tons, and global cotton production decreased 135 thousand tons to 22 million 327 thousand tons.

China's cotton production has been raised by 326 thousand tons to 7 million 620 thousand tons, India's cotton consumption has been reduced by 55 thousand tons to 5 million 225 thousand tons, Pakistan's cotton consumption has been reduced by 54 thousand tons to 2 million 232 thousand tons, and the global cotton consumption has increased 220 thousand tons to 24 million 297 thousand tons.

South Korea's imports of cotton increased 153 thousand tons to 523 thousand tons.

U.S.A

Cotton is increased by 21.8 to 2 million 504 thousand tons.

China's cotton stocks have dropped sharply from 654 thousand tons to 11 million 255 thousand tons, while US cotton stocks have dropped 4.3 to 1 million 2 thousand tons, and global stocks have dropped by 749 thousand tons to 19 million 876 thousand tons.

This report mainly raised the output of US cotton, cut down the output of India and Pakistan, raised cotton consumption in China, and sharply reduced China and global cotton stocks.

In July, cotton prices continued to soared in India. As of July 20th, the price of S-6 cotton mill's delivery price was 47250 rupees / candi, which was 90 cents / pound.

Because of the low domestic cotton stocks and the new flower market going to the end of October and the beginning of November, textile enterprises began to import large quantities of cotton, Australian cotton and West African cotton.

In addition, the new cotton planting area in India is expected to decrease in the new year and the sowing time is lagging behind, which also supports the sharp rise in cotton prices in India.

According to the 2015/16 annual report issued by India Cotton Advisory Committee

According to the forecast report, cotton production in 2015/16 decreased by 1 million 400 thousand packages (238 thousand tons) to 33 million 800 thousand packages (5 million 746 thousand tons).

Exports decreased by 200 thousand packages (34 thousand tons) to 6 million 800 thousand packages (1 million 156 thousand tons); imports increased by 400 thousand packages (68 thousand tons) to 1 million 500 thousand packages (255 thousand tons); consumption was reduced by 200 thousand packets (34 thousand tons) to 30 million 800 thousand packets (30 million 800 thousand tons).

In addition, the amount of cotton pferred to 2015/16 has been adjusted by an increase of 800 thousand packages (136 thousand tons) to 6 million 600 thousand packages (1 million 122 thousand tons).

As a result, although the supply decreased from last year's forecast, the final inventory was increased to 4 million 300 thousand packages (731 thousand tons).