The Probability Of A Sharp Rise In Dye Market Prices Is Small In The Macro Negative Year.

Entering the 2019, the domestic disperse dye market began to rise again after a slight pullback. As of the end of April 2019, the market price of disperse dyestuff was again on the line of 45 yuan / kg (dispersed black ECT 300%). At the same time, the disperse dye market also completely recovered all the decline since the 2015 crash.

?

Figure 1

Entering the middle of 2019, China's dyestuff market has entered a high level. In the wake of the Spring Festival demand season, the Dyestuff Factory has begun to raise the price mode again. At the initial stage, traders and downstream printing and dyeing enterprises have strong rejection of price increases, and the market follow up rhythm is relatively slow. But in late March, the Xiangshui Industrial Park accident caused the supply and demand pattern of the dyestuff industry to start to reverse. At the same time, the price of raw materials rose rapidly, leading to a sharp rise in the market bullish atmosphere and a warming up in the market. At this time, the disperse dye factories began to raise the factory guidance price continuously, and promoted the rapid shift of the market gravity center, and the downstream printing and dyeing enterprises were in a passive state of catching up.

?

Figure 2

While the price of upstream dyes continues to rise, downstream printing and dyeing is not the hot demand season. Since the return of the Spring Festival, downstream printing and dyeing enterprises have entered the peak period of traditional order processing, but due to the slow progress of the recruitment process after the festival, many printing and dyeing enterprises resumed their work time later than in previous years.

At the same time, after entering 2019, the printing and dyeing industry has been suppressed in many ways. First of all, at the demand level, the slowdown in demand is the current situation of China's textile and garment industry. According to the Statistics Bureau, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles in China entered a rapid growth after 2000, but after 2011, the growth rate of the textile industry began to fall, and the growth rate of total retail sales slowed down significantly. Until 2018, its total retail sales fell for the first time, marking the end of the peak of China's textile industry.

?

Figure 3

China's economy has continued downward in the past ten years, and China's economic growth in 2018 has reached a new low since 1991. In the economic downturn cycle, the demand for social consumer goods is difficult to increase significantly. Pessimism is expected to flow upstream, further promoting the weakening of the textile and apparel market operation rhythm.

?

Figure 4

Since the beginning of 2018, trade frictions between China and the United States have continued to escalate, the uncertainty of trade environment has increased significantly, and the export pressure of textile industry has also increased. At the same time, the improvement of economic and environmental risks will suppress the domestic consumer market. From the latest data of China's total retail sales in April, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles decreased by 1.1% compared with the same period last year, and the overall weakness of the textile industry has not yet been improved.

?

On the whole, the supply side and demand side of the dyestuff industry both showed a tightening trend in 2019. However, due to the wide scope of the accident, the dye market is still in a tight state of supply. However, under the negative impact of the macro level, the tightening effect of supply tightening on the price of dye market will be significantly weakened. In the year, the price of dye market will rise again.