2016 To 2017 How Does China'S Economic Development Go?

At present,

The main reason for the downlink is structural problems. It is the only way to solve the problem to carry out the supply side reform and innovate continuously from the aspects of talent, technology and financial system.

On the afternoon of 3 July, the public lecture hall of private enterprises in Baoding, Hebei province was held in Baoding Zhongguancun innovation center. Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's office and the former chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, attended the meeting and delivered a keynote speech on "2016 to 2017 China's economic trend analysis and forecast".

Yao Jingyuan said that since the 38 years since 1978, China's economy has grown by an average speed of 9.8%, and the growth rate ranks first in the world.

Long term rapid growth has achieved the status of the world's second largest economy.

But in recent years,

Reversion is an indisputable fact.

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of China's GDP in 2015 was 6.9%, the lowest since 1990. In the first half of 2016, the initial accounting of GDP increased by 6.7%, and the growth rate further declined.

Yao Jingyuan said, the reason for this is that China's economic growth in the past was mainly driven by population. The long term cheap labor force made China make an unmatched price advantage.

With the advent of the aging society, the labor force population ratio has decreased year by year, the strength of labor dividends has been lost, labor costs have risen sharply, and the profit margins of enterprises have been declining.

The biggest impact of this change is on export trade. In 2015, the growth rate of China's export trade was minus 7%, of which 7 types of labor-intensive enterprises such as textiles, luggage, clothing and so on were the most obvious.

"At present, China's economy is characterized by a decline in growth rate, a decline in corporate profits, a fall in the price of industrial products, a decline in fiscal revenues and an increase in the risk of investment in enterprises by" four down one liter ".

Yao Jingyuan believes that at present, China's economy has reached a new stage, and the growth pattern has changed from extensive growth in the past to the intensive growth dominated by quality and efficiency.

"It is normal to slow down the growth rate at this stage."

China's macroeconomic development

Special attention should be paid to speed change, structural optimization and dynamic pformation.

Yao Jingyuan said that China's existing agricultural population of 220 million, still in the "small household production" mode of planting, organization, scale and mechanization of the low level, especially the lack of meticulous agricultural machinery is the main problem facing China's agricultural development;

China's industry is big and not strong, lacking core technology and core competitiveness. How to move from the middle to the low end to the middle and high end is an urgent problem for industrial development. In the development of service industry, the proportion of China's third industry in the economic structure is still lower than the world average level, and the added value is low, and the supply of culture, education and medical care is seriously insufficient.

Yao Jingyuan suggested that in 13th Five-Year, the plan clearly put forward that from 2016 to 2020, China will achieve a well-off society in an all-round way, and the total economic output and per capita income will be doubled than 2010.

To achieve this goal, the average annual growth rate of China's economy will not be less than 6.5% in the next 5 years.

Therefore, the future development of modern service industry has broad prospects, and private capital can be focused.