PTA Price Cost Support Expected Continuation

In July, the PTA price showed a trend of rising before and after, and the whole remained in the big shock platform at the line level of the preceding month.

Recently, the overall risk appetite of the market has been switched frequently, and the driving force of the common segment has increased the price fluctuation of PTA.

We expect that industrial products including PTA will continue to face intermittent disturbance of overall risk preference switching in the future.

From the monthly line level, the PTA price in July showed a trend of first and then suppressed, and the whole remained in the big shock platform at the line level of the preceding month.

Recently, the overall risk appetite of the market has been switched frequently, and the driving force of the common segment has increased the price fluctuation of PTA.

We expect that industrial products including PTA will continue to face intermittent disturbance of overall risk preference switching in the future.

Industrial chain links,

Maintain strong, PTA price and cost support is expected to continue.

But the same thing should be noted is that the cost side is too strong to hedge the continuous high warehouse receipts and the trend of future demand weakening, and the big probability of the industrial chain maintains weak expectations.

Overall, at present, the overall risk appetite switching is frequent and PTA's personality is weak. However, considering that the current price has already reflected some bad anticipation, the future trend may return to the previous pattern of large regional shocks.

Strategy to maintain the band operation of the shock interval.

PX shows a strong trend, the current PX- naphtha oil price difference is still relatively high, with the PX device's resumption of production, the price gap still has the power to reduce.

From the PX demand side, the domestic PTA plant will continue to control the low and low operating rates.

Demand matching, even if the polyester terminal demand exceeds expected improvement, PTA factory operating rate synchronous high, PX demand exceeds expected increase, will only bring PX stage supply is tight, so we think the late PX price increase space and continuity is limited.

PTA due to the existence of the deadline arbitrage window, coupled with the lack of downstream polyester demand recovery, so

Arbitrage demand becomes the key.

On the one hand, most of the PTA factories are short on the futures market, and the produced PTA spot is delivered to the delivery warehouse to earn the current price difference; on the other hand, many traders will buy spot goods in the market and throw them on futures.

The two parts flow into the PTA delivery repository.

Even under high storage pressure, the PTA plant still has no large-scale production reduction action, and it is difficult to change the fundamentals of PTA on the supply side.

The overall inventory removal process is still slow.

In terms of polyester, the overall speculative demand in the end of July is still good, but the late stage weaving and adding bombs have been in the low season, and the load has started to decline. The load of polyester plant has dropped to 77% near the same time. In the late stage, there are still many devices to drop down the load and reduce the demand for PTA raw materials to a lower level. The demand for raw materials for the PTA has been reduced, and the demand for terminal materials has been driven by the rebound of the upstream raw materials. However, the late weaving and adding bombs have been in the low season of the Spring Festival. The load has started to go down, and the load of the polyester plant has been reduced to 77%. The load of the polyester plant has dropped to 77% near the same time. There are still many installations in the late stage, and there are still many devices to drop the load, so that the total load will be reduced to 75% or less.

In the industrial chain, the cost side remains strong, and the PTA price support is expected to continue.

But the same thing should be noted is that the cost side is too strong to hedge the continuous high warehouse receipts and the trend of future demand weakening, and the big probability of the industrial chain maintains weak expectations.

Overall, at present, the overall risk appetite switching is frequent and PTA's personality is weak. However, considering that the current price has already reflected some bad anticipation, the future trend may return to the previous pattern of large regional shocks.

Strategy to maintain the band operation of the shock interval.