PTA Is It Difficult To Get Rid Of The Low Oscillation Stalemate?

Since July, the PTA price has maintained a narrow range of oscillation from 4700 to 4900 yuan / ton. Trading opportunities mostly exist in the short term, and lack of trend opportunities.

Although the peak season of traditional consumption is coming, the low level oscillation of crude oil and consumption in the peak season are hard to say. PTA oversupply is hard to change.

It is expected that PTA will be unable to shake off the stalemate of low oscillation.

With the conclusion of the G20 summit,

The operating rate continued to pick up since last week.

According to Zhuo Chuang statistics, polyester load has risen to over 75%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has risen to more than 70%.

Therefore, the supply and demand of short-term PTA is better, and prices or oscillations tend to be strong.

OPEC and other non OPEC oil producing countries such as Russia will hold informal talks in Algeria on 26 - 28 September to cooperate in stabilizing oil prices, but the market is more skeptical about the possibility of reaching an agreement.

On the one hand, the two freeze meeting in the first half of the year ended in failure. The biggest resistance of this conference still comes from Iran. At present, Iran insists on restoring crude oil output to the level before sanctions, hoping to get the right of exemption from production. On the other hand,

The rate hike is also expected to keep oil prices under pressure, and the supply surplus situation is hard to improve in the short term, so oil prices are short of action.

Data show that the CFTC fund sharply cut crude oil long positions, showing speculators' attitude towards crude oil market is more pessimistic.

At present, 50 US dollars / barrel is still the main pressure of crude oil, and it will continue to oscillate at 40 to 50 US dollars per barrel.

In addition, the fundamentals of naphtha are still weak and will follow the low oscillation of oil prices.

At the same time, as the direct raw material of PTA, the supply and demand side of PX is slightly loose.

Overall, the upstream raw material market of PTA will be difficult to maintain with the weakening of oil prices.

Generate directional guidelines.

At present, the oversupply is still the main pressure of PTA, which determines that the processing fee will remain low.

According to the current PX price conversion, PTA processing fee rebounded to 450 yuan / ton, though far below the theoretical profit and loss balance level of 700 yuan / ton, but it has risen from the low to the average of the year, and has improved significantly since June.

With the processing fee callback, the supporting role of cost side will weaken, and the PTA price rebound space will be limited.

In the medium to long term, September has entered the traditional consumption season of polyester industry.

According to the market performance in the past years, the polyester start-up rate is hard to return to the first half of the year, generally below 80%, and is expected to decline significantly before the end of the year or before the Spring Festival.

At the same time, this year's textile and garment export data is not optimistic, which means that terminal consumption capacity is limited, and consumption in the peak season is not strong enough to boost PTA prices.

It is also understood that the Yisheng petrochemical plant in Hainan is expected to be overhauled to the end of September. Tianjin petrochemical and Honggang petrochemical facilities are also expected to end maintenance in late September. The PTA operating rate will face a substantial recovery, which will have a certain impact on PTA prices.

To sum up, the cost side of PTA lacks directional guidance, and the market focus is still in the supply and demand side.

Due to the upturn of the PTA device and the start up rate of polyester enterprises, and facing the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the moderately stocked downstream or the PTA fundamentals will be better for the short term. However, the restart of the PTA repair device in late September will bring a certain impact on the market.

Therefore, in the medium to long term, the intensity of consumer spending in the peak season may be limited. PTA still finds it difficult to shake off the deadlock caused by oversupply.