The Market Is More Optimistic About The New Cotton Listed Price.

Since March this year, domestic and foreign cotton prices have continued to rise, although they have dropped somewhat, they are still higher than the prices at the end of last year.

At the same time, the downstream demand for cotton is still good, the market is more optimistic about the price of new cotton.

Judging from the psychological and price expectations of cotton producers and production and Construction Corps in the cotton producing areas of Xinjiang, cotton growers are generally optimistic about the price of new cotton and are more optimistic about planting income.

It is understood that cotton temporary

With the implementation of the market target price policy in Xinjiang cotton market, local authorities and cotton growers have strengthened management of the quality of Xinjiang cotton in order to enhance the market competitiveness of Xinjiang cotton, increase the share of Xinjiang's cotton market share, achieve the purpose of multi-channel sale of cotton in Xinjiang, raise the sales price of Xinjiang cotton and increase the income of Xinjiang, and take various measures to improve the quality of Xinjiang cotton.

For example, in the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, all divisions, regiments, and even the responsible persons take the promotion of cotton quality as the first catch, especially the cotton and Flax Company of various regiments. Basically, they follow the principle of "one principal, one pair" or "one principal and two pairs" to select cotton varieties, and continuously strengthen the popularization and popularization of the "sparse planting high yield" planting mode. At the same time, strengthen the process control and control of cotton harvesting process, and optimize the processing technology of the back road.

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The management level of the whole species, mining, harvesting and rolling links has been promoted significantly. The quality of Xinjiang cotton is obviously better than that of previous years.

Zhou Wenke said that by the end of July 2015, there was a continuous high temperature in Xinjiang's cotton growing area, and the management could not keep up with it, resulting in short cotton length.

This year, when the weather is beautiful and the management is in place, the cotton length, horse value and intensity are generally good in Xinjiang, and the "double 28, double 29" cotton can be found everywhere.

For cotton downstream textile mills, this is no doubt a gospel. It is expected that this year cotton market will not appear again in 2015, such as the structural supply imbalance of cotton, domestic cotton market high quality cotton has been tight supply contradictions will be eased, or even disappear.

In addition, due to the improvement of cotton quality, the quantity of cotton that meets the registered standard of zhengmian warehouse receipt this year is more, and the supply of zhengmian warehouse receipt is more abundant, which will raise the enthusiasm of the cotton downstream textile mill to receive Zheng cotton warehouse receipt.

According to the analysis of cotton growth in Xinjiang and the mainland, the cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to be between 3 million 600 thousand and 3 million 800 thousand tons this year. The mainland expects 700 thousand to 800 thousand tons. The new cotton production in the new year is expected to be between 4 million 300 thousand and 4 million 600 thousand tons, plus 894 thousand tons of import quotas, corresponding to the expected 7 million 400 thousand tons.

Despite the shortage of about 2 million tons in the new year, due to the supply of reserve cotton, the overall contradiction between supply and demand of domestic cotton market in the new year will not be very prominent. Even if the shortage of short term storage of national cotton stores or the lack of timely storage will result in a shortage of supply in the market, cotton prices will only have a "pulse" trend, and the long-term trend will be more stable.

At present, there are no major changes in supply and demand in the international cotton market. The output of cotton in the United States is basically determined. The main supply and demand variables of the future international cotton market come from the supply and demand changes in India and Pakistan.

It is understood that the Pakistan cotton production evaluation committee predicts that the country's cotton output this year is 1 million 910 thousand tons, exceeding the 1 million 740 thousand predicted by the US Department of agriculture.

India's cotton production area has dropped by 8.8% this year, and the expected change in the volume of domestic production is expected to have a greater impact on cotton prices in the international market.

For cotton growers, in recent years, the target price policy underpinning has guaranteed the planting income. This year, lint prices will rise and fall for a long time. The price of new cotton will definitely be higher than that of last year. The price of the new seed cotton is expected to be between 7 yuan and 8 yuan per kilogram.

Some cotton growers say that because of the continuous implementation of the target price policy, the price of newly produced seed cotton will be sold to 6 yuan / kg and 7 yuan / kg this year. The final yield is the same as expected. If seed cotton can be sold for more than 8 yuan / kg, no subsidy will be fine. (after last year's target price was subsidized, the cotton seed price of cotton growers was around 8 yuan / kg).

Therefore, as long as the market price of newly produced seed cotton is not less than the average price of 5.5 yuan per kilogram last year, cotton farmers will basically sell cotton on the market, and there will be no selling mentality.

Compared with cotton farmers' psychology of selling cotton more easily, the cotton mill's psychology of acquiring seed cotton is very cautious.

At present, because of the worry that the market price of new seed cotton will appear before and after the listing period, it will lead to a high and low trend. In order to avoid losses caused by the price decline, some cotton ginning plants will try to lower the purchase price of the new seed cotton. The current purchase price is mainly concentrated in 6.2 - 6.4 yuan / kg, and the strategy of fast forward and quick out is also adopted.

Some of the more cautious ginning plants, after the new seed cotton scale is listed, try to buy seed cotton at the price of 6 yuan / kg.

"If we buy new cotton seeds at the price of 6 yuan per kilogram, the cost will be about 13100 yuan per ton after processing, and the registration will be made at Zhengyuan cotton warehouse receipt.

Zhou Wenke said that there are already some cotton ginning plants and cotton traders are buying arbitrage operations for spot throwing futures.