Textile Enterprises Prepare: Viscose Staple Fiber Rally Will Continue Until The End Of Next Year.

At the beginning of this week, when a textile manufacturer issued the nuclear yarn price for the salesmen this week, about three main owners.

Price reference:

14500-14700 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber 7250 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber cash 16200 yuan / ton, acceptance 16400 yuan / ton.

From the price point of view, the price of cotton and polyester is flat compared to last week, and only viscose staple fiber has 100-200 yuan / ton increase.

After the cotton is stable and cloudy, many spinning enterprises will see that the viscose staple with a substitution effect will also drop. But the opposite is true. The price of viscose is still strong now. What is the matter? Because this year is only the relay stage of viscose rise.

1. Viscose price cycle analysis

02-03 (+8000 yuan /+80%), WTO opened.

The golden age of export and viscose staple fiber industry;

In 06-07 (+9500 yuan /+75%), the downstream applications of economic prosperity were blooming.

09-10 (+19000 yuan /+165%), after the financial crisis, viscose staple fiber ushered in four trillion investment, plus 100 years of cotton cattle fell from the sky, took the highest price in the century 31 thousand yuan.

It has been shown that the demand driven viscose staple is rising for 2 years, generally in the second year 11/12 month, in which the domestic demand driven rise is slower than that of foreign demand, and the later fall time is longer.

The rising cotton often ignites viscose staple fiber market, which generally occurs in the second stage of rising and at the same time peaked.

The rise in 15/16 is driven by supply / demand, which means that this year is only a relay stage. The cotton price riots will not lead to the rise of viscose staple. It is estimated that the capital market will be at the top of the current market price during the loose conversion period.

Two, cotton sticky linkage

The same cotton character, the same kind of performance, cotton and artificial cotton (viscose downstream) can replace each other, the price trend is also closely related, cotton rose 1000 yuan corresponding viscose price rose 750 yuan.

But historically, there is no lack of national macroeconomic regulation and control, collection or dumping, and the prices of both countries are opposite (06-08; 11-14).

This has not only imposed a heavy financial burden on the state, but also has not protected the interests of farmers.

With the introduction of the direct subsidy policy in 2014, the cotton price marketization and cotton sticky linkage returned simultaneously, and the domestic and foreign cotton area continued to decline, which also supported cotton and sticky prices.

Cotton price angle fitting, the US cotton futures price of 15 thousand yuan corresponds to viscose staple price 19 thousand yuan.

From the environmental point of view, in recent years, the proportion of cotton pulp with serious pollution and limited capacity in raw materials has decreased from 5 to less than 2. It is predictably that the cost pushing effect of cotton will gradually dissipate, and its future impact on the price of viscose staple fiber will be more driven by demand substitution.

Three. Downstream demand

The 2016-2019 year is the three year of the Xinjiang spinning project.

This year, the additional capacity of more than 700 spindles brings about 120 thousand tons of viscose demand, while the shutdown of some factories in Bola India is expected to increase more than 20 tons of viscose demand overseas.

Once domestic capacity comes to environmental shutdown or collective overhaul, it will highlight an irreparable gap between supply and demand.

With the improvement of supply and demand, the price of viscose increased along with the high starting up (93%) and low inventory (6 days) this year. This is the obvious feature of the fundamental improvement. The downstream cotton yarn and the rising price also show that the price pmission is smooth and the demand is strong.

Fujian cotton mill's cotton yarn siro spinning 40S multi report rose to 22800 yuan -23000/ tons, the implementation of the resistance is greater.

The market price of core spun yarn is generally stable. The 28S price of the imitation rabbit hair is 23000 yuan / ton, and some of the actual pactions have been implemented. Part of the quotation for the ring spinning 30S market is more than 20000-20200 yuan / ton. The market expects that the lower order concentration will start before mid September.

In the expectation that the RMB exchange rate will promote the positive evolution of textile exports, the downstream demand for viscose will also steadily increase, and the industry boom will continue to improve.